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SmartDrivingCars & Older People:

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Presentation on theme: "SmartDrivingCars & Older People:"— Presentation transcript:

1 SmartDrivingCars & Older People:
Sooner Rather Than Later by Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Program in Transportation Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering) Princeton University Presented at 95th Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board January 11, 2016 Washington, DC

2 Where are we As a state Florida is doing it right 3rd such conference
Leadership in State legislature Leadership in Public agencies Leadership in initial implementation Recognition of the opportunity of Automation supported by Connectivity Recognition of the value of Collaboration

3 Where we’d like to get Fully automated, connected and environmentally responsible multi-modal mobility system that enhances everyone’s quality of life.

4 Where are we really? Realization:
Adoption Levels of Automated Features ABS… whole fleet Stability Control…Every new vehicle since 2012 Stupid Cruise Control…>50% of the fleet Utilization?? Undiscovered by highway professionals Has there ever been a commercial about it???? Realization: On Florida’s roads today: 100% Human Drivers Even by 2060 there will still be some “’55 Chevys” using Florida Roads Recommendations #1: Make Infrastucture Improvements that Benefit Human Drivers and Could be useful to automated systems. (Good paint!)

5 Where are we really? Safety: It is THE appropriate CENTRAL focus
By far, the most fundamental reason for public oversight of transportation Occupational Safety Driving is one of the most dangerous Occupations More dangerous than Coal Mining. However, Today it Doesn’t sell Else everyone would be driving a Volvo and OSHA is nowhere in sight

6 Where are we really? Safety: Not all Safety is the Same Driver Taining/Education Somewhat Condescending/Demeaning Crash Mitigation reduces “soft costs” not “hard costs” Crash Avoidance reduces “soft costs” and “hard costs” A real RoI for Self-Insured Fleet Owners A real opportunity for Insurance to motivate the adoption by both fleets and consumers. A Necessary element of any of our future visions Recommendation #2: Let’s just focus our energies in the perfection and adoption of Automated Crash Avoidance and let the rest take care of itself.

7 Where are we really? autonomousTaxis (aTaxis; Adam Jonas Upper RD Quad) Driverless (where less can be zero) “Mass” Transit system of the future. Chauffeured from A2B True Horizontal Elevator Level-of-Service Shares existing roads with human drivers Shares the ride Enormous opportunity to Reduce the cost Reduce the environmental Consequences of increased PMT Eliminates congestion

8 Where are we really? autonomousTaxis (aTaxis; Adam Jonas’ Upper RH Quad) Fact: We have yet to go even “one meter” Driverless in an “unprepared” environment. But in moderately “prepared” environments we can get started Recommendation #3: Let’s focus on as many as possible “Deployments” in “Gated Communities” Low speed (under 25mph), Last mile, …. And gradually serve more “unprepared”… We’ll get to that “first meter” Unprepared.

9 Discussion! Thank You

10 Where are we really?

11 Where are we really?

12

13 Past There seems to be a new Transportation Technology realization…
What started out in “1939” as Automated Highways

14 AHS: Automated Highway Systems: 1939 - 1997
“Waterloo”: No feasible way to get started

15 V2V: Connected Vehicles: 1997 -
“Waterloo”: Little value until a substantial market penetration is achieved. Again a non-starter

16 Automated Vehicles (rather than Automated Highways) : 2004 -
Focus on making one Automated Vehicle co-exist with today’s infrastructure and human drivers; then simply replicate Real beauty is in its “autonomy” (forgo the “Systems” concept) : Each replicated vehicle benefits (Cost of Replication is Small) ! CityMobil2

17 Present: Safety is an Issue!
NHTSA: Car Crashes cost US $871B/yr (~ $2,800/person 5/29/14) The Sensors, Actuators and Algorithms are on the verge of being able to Drive as well as the best of us without needing any infrastructure improvements in enough places at enough times to make a substantial difference in Safety.

18 But you say… Alain… Safety doesn’t Sell! Look… Few drive Volvos,
Public-sector Mandates and Threatens : Up until now we have focused on crash mitigation (This saves lives  , but hasn’t reduced costs  )

19 Present: Safety is an Issue!
NHTSA: Car Crashes cost US $871B/yr (~ $2,800/person 5/29/14) Buses: The Sensors, Actuators and Algorithms are on the verge of being able to Drive as well as the best of us without needing any infrastructure improvements in enough places at enough times to make a substantial difference in Safety.

20 More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies
More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

21 More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies
More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

22 More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies
More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

23 More Viable Future: For Example
Driving a Bus is NOT Simple and Very Stressful Requires Continuous Diligence 2 bus drivers in NYC arrested for striking a pedestrian while simply trying to do their job Driving is one of the most dangerous occupation

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27 Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance
The Political Case Driving a Bus is NOT Simple and Very Stressful Requires Continuous Diligence 2 bus drivers in NYC arrested for striking a pedestrian while simply trying to do their job Driving is one of the most dangerous occupation Drivers need help and ACA systems are available to help! Transit Unions & OSHA need to be demanding deployment of ACAS on all buses!

28 Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case Bus Collisions are Expensive!

29 Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case The Trend is NOT Good!

30 Automated Collision Avoidance
Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case 2013 Nationwide Bus Casualty and Liability Expense Source FTA NTD Casualty and Liability Amount Vehicle-related 119 Fatalities 15,351 Injuries  $499,872,628. Total Buses Commuter Bus (CB), Motor Bus (MB), Bus Rapid Transit (RB), Demand Responsive (DR) 80,795 Sub-Total Casualty and Liability Amount Per Bus $6,187/Bus/Year

31 Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case Bus Collisions are Expensive! In the next five days the bus transit industry will spend $6.8 million in casualty and liability expenses

32 Fundamental Business Model
Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case Bus Collisions are Expensive! Fundamental Business Model We are near a point where: Cost of Automated Collision Avoidance Technology < Present Value {Expected Liability Savings over life of bus}

33 Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case Bus Collisions are Expensive!

34 Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case Bus Collisions are Expensive!

35 Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case Bus Collisions are Expensive! Plus: Lives Saved, Injuries Avoided, Disruptions Averted, and Arrests not Made All for Free!!!

36 Fundamentally Strong Business Case!
Future Evolve the Sensors, Actuators and Algorithms to be Cheaper & Drive Better than the best of us without needing any infrastructure improvements in More places at More times While continuing to improve Safety, AND Revolutionize Mobility for All Substantially Reduce Energy Consumption Pollution, and Green House Gases (GHG) Fundamentally Strong Business Case!

37 Fundamentally Strong Business Case! an Enormous Amount of Work
But, an Enormous Amount of Work Needs to be Done

38 Over the Past 3 Years A Number of US have been Meeting:
To Leverage the Region’s Assets: Home of major NA HQ: Insurance, Auto OEM, Technology, Communications and University Research Re-purposing of PU’s Forrestal Campus, Fort Monmouth & Bell Labs To Create the Research, Certification & Commercialization Environment: That Develops Automated Vehicle (AV) Technology such that: PriceSDT < NetPresentValue { Expected {AccidentLiability w/o AV } - Expected {AccidentLiability w AV }} To Create Jobs while Improving Safety, Mobility and the Environment

39 Over the Past 3 Years We’ve created :
Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety (CARTS) Initial Board of Governance: Initial Focus on Automated Collision Avoidance A Scope that includes Research Certification & Commercialization That Spans all Road modes: Cars Buses Trucks And Recognizes the Importance of After-market as well as OEM

40 Automated Collision Avoidance
CARTS Focus: Automated Collision Avoidance Modal Dimension Sector Dimension Commercialization Certification Research Transit Cars Trucks CARTS Activity Matrix

41 After-market/Retrofit
CARTS Focus: Automated Collision Avoidance Center’s Activity Tensor Trucks After-market/Retrofit Modal Dimension Transit OEM Cars Research Certification Commercialization Sector Dimension

42 After-Market/Retrofit After-Market/Retrofit
CARTS Focus: Automated Collision Avoidance Center’s Activity Tensor Research Certification Commercialization Trucks Trucks Transit Modal Dimension Transit After-Market/Retrofit Cars After-Market/Retrofit Cars OEM OEM Research Certification Commercialization Sector Dimension

43 Next Steps Launch the CARTS Research Activities @ PU’s Forrestal Campus, Prepare for the CARTS Certification Activities @ Fort Monmouth, and Prepare for the CARTS Commercialization Bell Works

44 Discussion! Thank You

45 Just a Note:

46 Just a Note: Application of Existing Automated Lane Keeping & Intelligent Cruise Control (What exists today in Mercedes, Volvo & Tesla) To the 3,000 buses that currently use the XBL today 3,000 x $5,000 = $15M (0.15% of $10B) Could increase the capacity of the XBL by 50% From 700 to 1,050 buses/hr (adding 17,500 commuters/hr = added capacity of new rail tunnel) But ONLY if the $10B spent on the new terminal is designed to accommodate this 50% increase in throughput.

47 Discussion! Thank You

48 The following slides will NOT be used

49

50 McAfee Office Building
Princeton University Center for Research, Certification & Commercialization of Automated Vehicles at Fort Monmouth McAfee Complex 1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres Vehicle Bays McAfee Office Building ~ 100,000sf Support Buildings

51 Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety
McAfee Complex 1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres Vehicle Bays McAfee Office Building ~ 100,000sf Support Buildings

52 Princeton University Center for Research, Certification & Commercialization of Automated Vehicles at Fort Monmouth Secure Test Center ~ 80 acres

53 Mixed Use of Roadways in
Princeton University Center for Research, Certification & Commercialization of Automated Vehicles at Fort Monmouth Mixed Use of Roadways in ½ the Fort ~ 1 sq. mile Exclusive Use Roadways

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57 APM: Automated People Mover: 1968 -
“Waterloo” limited to serve “Few to Few” demand

58 PRT: Personal Rapid Transit: 1968 -
Attempt to serve “Many to Many” but “Waterloo” may well be the word “Personal” & Exclusive Guideway?

59 Quality of Life 101: Important Elements
Environment Clean air, water, … Employment “High Quality” Jobs Correlated with Crime/Personal Safety Mobility Personal Desire with Societal Oversight Priorities: Safety, Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience, …

60 Installed Cost ($C) of that Technology
Founding Premise Automated Vehicle Technology can evolve such that: If added to a single vehicle, The probabilities that this vehicle will be involved in various types of accidents are substantially reduced. Overall the expected Liability Cost Savings ($L) attributed to those avoided accidents > Installed Cost ($C) of that Technology

61 If ($L) > ($C) of that Technology
Founding Premise If ($L) > ($C) of that Technology Then there is an enormous Business Case for the adoption of that technology by that vehicle and every other vehicle. The technology more than pays for itself from the savings that it delivers. PLUS: The created “High Quality” Jobs, Improved Personal Safety Avoided Personal Disruptions Improved the Environment, and Arguably Improved: Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience, … All Come for FREE!

62 Fundamental Focus of the NJ Center for AV@ Fort Monmouth:
Advancing AV Technologies that ($L) > ($C) Facilitating Fundamental R&D on enabling sensor and control technologies, and Vehicle<->driver/rider<->WWW<->Vehicle… interface elements Quantifying the Expected Accident Probability implications of those AV Technologies. To enable positive insurance and risk mitigation interests to propel adoption that also greatly benefits Testing and Certification of those AV Technologies Support Technically the Public Oversight/Regulation of those AV Technologies Support Technically the Commercialization of those AV Technologies

63 Assets We Have: Enabling State Legislation S-734 passed NJ Senate 35-0
Assembly bill waiting to move. We can help.

64 Assets We Have: McAffee Center 25 acre Campus Eastern Gated Test Site
Enabling State Legislation S-734 passed NJ Senate 35-0 Assembly bill waiting to move. We can help. Option on Facilities McAffee Center 25 acre Campus 100,000 ft2 office 2 large 1st class garages Eastern Gated Test Site 80 acres Existing streets and buildings Limited use of Fort’s exiting roadways

65 Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS)
Princeton University Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth McAfee Complex 1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres Vehicle Bays McAfee Office Building ~ 100,000sf Support Buildings

66 Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth
Princeton University Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth Exclusive Use Roadways Area ~ 60 acres Vehicle Bays McAfee Office Building ~ 100,000sf Support Buildings

67 Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS)
Princeton University Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth Mixed Use Roadways ½ The Fort ~ 1 sq. mile Exclusive Use Roadways

68 Assets We Have: Many interested entities Enabling State Legislation
S-734 passed NJ Senate 35-0 Assembly bill waiting to move. We can help. Option on Facilities McAffee Center Eastern Gated Test Site Limited use of Fort’s exiting roadways Many interested entities Universities: Princeton, UTRC2, U Md, Monmouth, NJIT Insurance: Munich Re, WSTIP, ICNJ, NJM, Technology Co: Siemens, MobilEye, Rosco, Soterea, Lam Cloud Foundations & Corporations: DCH Autogroup, Teen Safety Foundation, Comcast, Verizon, Public & non-Profits: NJ Transit, GCTC, APTA, ATRA, Consultants: HNTB, EPS, Public Sector: NJ DoT, MVC, PANYNJ, NJTPA, L&PS

69 Organizational Stucture:
Example: Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Mission Statement The Insurance institute for highway safety is an independent, nonprofit, scientific and educational organization it identifies and evaluates ways to reduce the human and economic losses resulting from motor vehicle crashes and communicates the results of that research to the public, federal, state, and local highway and vehicle safety officials, vehicle manufacturers, insurers, the media, the research community and others (IIHS) The NJ center for automated Ft. Monmouth is an independent, nonprofit, scientific and educational organization. It advances and evaluates automated vehicle technologies to reduce motor vehicle crashes and communicates the results of that research to the public, federal, state, and local highway and vehicle safety officials, vehicle manufacturers, insurers, the media, the research community and others (NJ

70 Organizational Stucture:
Example: Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Impact Statement Research projects undertaken identify and evaluate methods of reducing the personal injuries and property damage resulting from the use of motor vehicles (IIHS) Research projects undertaken: Advancing AV Technologies that ($L) > ($C) Facilitating Fundamental R&D on enabling sensor and control technologies, and Vehicle<->driver/rider<->WWW<->Vehicle… interface elements Quantify the Expected Accident Probability implications of those AV Technologies. Test and Certify those AV Technologies Support Technically the Public Oversight/Regulation of those AV Technologies, and Support Technically the Commercialization of those AV Technologies (NJ

71 Business Plan/Membership Stucture:
Example: Insurance Institute for Highway Safety : 501 C6 Membership: ~ 100 Members (Munich Re, USAA, Progressive, GEICO , … Not: WTSIP) & 3 “Funding Associations (American Insurance Association, National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies, Property Casualty Insurers Association of America )

72 Business Plan/Membership Stucture:
Create a 501 c6 (Mon-profit Trade Association) Tax exempt Contributions not tax deductible Companies write-off contributions as business expense Revenue can not be funneled to a single partner/member Can participate in joint project with members as long as sponsoring entity funds Center and Member separately Proposed Membership levels For Founding/Charter Members Supporting Members Affiliated Members Public Agency & Non-Profit Members University Members Associate Members

73 Business Plan/IPO (Initial Private Offering):
All have an OPTION to Join at Chosen Level OPTION expires on April 1. Level Board composition Annual commitment pledged for four years Founding/Charter Members 1 per member, senior board positions $250,000/yr Supporting Members 0.3 per member Junior board positions $100,000./yr Public Agency & Non-Profit 0.25 per member Contract authority University Members 0.2 per member $5,000/yr Associate Member No board representation $25,000/yr

74 Supporting Collaborator Associate Collaborator
Budget Center Membership (Revenue $ in thousands) Founding/ Charter Supporting Collaborator Associate Collaborator Sum Revenue ($) Note Founder's Fee (one-time) $ $ $ Annual Contribution $ Founding Members 5 15 $ 1,875 EoY 1 Members 6 7 20 $ 2,375 EoY 2 Members 10 27 $ 3,000 Steady-state Members 12 34 $ 4,000 FTE/member EoY 1 2 1 0.5 4 FTE/member EoY 2 3 FTE/member Steady-state 16 Office Space (sf) EoY 1 1,800 1,050 525 3,375 150 sf/FTE Office Space (sf) EoY 2 3,150 3,000 750 6,900 Office Space (sf) S-S 15,000 9,000 900 24,900 Garage Space (# bays) EoY 1 1.75 0.7 Garage Space (# bays) EoY 2 2.5 Garage Space (# bays) S-S 14 1.2 18 Center Management (Expense$ in thousands) Numbers Expenditure ($) Note Founding Staff 2 EoY 1 Staff 4 EoY 2 Staff 5 Steady-state Staff 7 Office Space (sf) Start 300 $ 150 $20/sf Office Space (sf) EoY 1 600 $ Office Space (sf) EoY 2 750 $ Office Space (sf) S-S 1,050 $ Salary*2.5 ($) Start $ $125 Overhead ($) EoY 1 $ ,300 $130 Overhead ($) EoY 2 $ ,688 $135 Overhead ($) S-S $ ,450 $140 Research ($) EoY 1 $ ,150 Revenue$-Office$-Salary$ Research ($) EoY 2 $ Research ($) S-S $ ,263

75 Value to Your Organization: Contributions from around the room


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