1. Calm Before the Storm The Recession’s Impact on Homelessness
Nick Falvo
Carleton University
Canadian Economics Association
Annual Conference
May 28-30, 2010
Quebec City

2. Outline of Presentation
Historical Impact of Recessions
The Recession
Impact on the Ground
The Lag Effect
Policy Responses
Policy Recommendation

3. Strong Historical Link
The United States
Canada

4. Which Recession Will Be Worse for Homelessness?
Depth of GDP Drop
3.4%
3.6%
Length of GDP Drop
4 Quarters
3 Quarters
↓ in Unemployment Rate
4.2 %
2.5%
Household Debt
$0.91
$1.40
UI/EI Coverage
81-85%
39-45%
Social Assistance
$11,400
$7,352
CCTB/NCB (OCB)
N.A.
$3,300 ($1,100)
UCCB
$100/month per child
Social Housing (Ontario)
7,000 New Units Annually
2,250 New Units Annually
Homelessness Services
Sparse
Comprehensive

5. Social Assistance

6. Shelter Occupancy

7. Toronto 1988-1996 Average Nightly Shelter Occupancy

8. Policy Responses $1 billion: Social Housing Repair
$475 million: Affordable Housing for Seniors and Disabled

9. Policy Recommendation
Rent Supplements/Shelter Allowances

10. Thank You