1. aTaxis: A New Urban Canvas for Vandals Artistsby
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, ORFE
(Operations Research & Financial Engineering) Director, CARTS
(Consortium for Automated Road Transportation Safety)
Faculty Chair, PAVE
(Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering)
Princeton University
Presented at
Shark Tank Breakout
July 11, 2018
Where are we going?

2. A Few Images of Smart Cities
Where are the people???
Slide from a plenary presentation from 1st morning of 2018 AV Conf.

3. What About aTaxis: The Great Mobility Opportunity for Moderately Dense Living Environments
Challenges:
Safety, ….
Fleet owned and managed
No direct human (owner or user) supervision/protection for >50% of the day
Only Societal Oversight

4. So What are we going to Get?
Let’s look at what exists now in Urban Areas:

5. Space Invader in Paris
Space Invader mosaics on Paris city walls

6. Le CyKlop
M Chat

7. Banksy
Banksy, UK artist, paintings on the wall separating West Bank

8. More political commentary

14. Basic Challenge:
How are aTaxi systems designed & operated so that they gain the RESPECT of the society that they are serving so that they become Canvases for Art
Else: How do we protect aTaxis from Vandalism?

15. Thank You Discussion! alaink@princeton.edu www.SmartDrivingCar.com
You can reach your own conclusions; however, this technology is transformative and it is fast approaching. Thank you.

16. Have You Noticed??? Google/Waymo’s Buying Spree
Year
10K
100K 1K 1M
10M
100 10 1
Cars “Purchased”
In 2012 Google/ Waymo went back to the local Lexus Dealership and “purchase” about 20 Lexus
2009
2012

17. Have You Noticed??? Google/Waymo’s Buying Spree
Year
10K
100K 1K 1M
10M
100 10 1
Cars “Purchased”
In about Google/Waymo built about 200 “Fireflies”
2009
2012
2014-5

18. Have You Noticed??? Google/Waymo’s Buying Spree
Year
10K
100K 1K 1M
10M
Cars “Purchased”
Late in 2016, Google/Waymo bought about 2,000 Fiat-Chrysler Pacificas
2009
2012
2015
2017

19. Have You Noticed??? Google/Waymo’s Buying Spree
Year
10K
100K 1K 1M
10M
100 10 1
Cars “Purchased”
Early this year They ordered 2,000 Jaguar I-PACE electric cars
2009
2012
2015
2017
2018.2

20. Have You Noticed??? Google/Waymo’s Buying Spree
Year
10K
100K 1K 1M
10M
100 10 1
> 10X
every 2 years
(Waymo’s Kornhauser Law)
Cars “Purchased”
A few weeks ago They ordered 60,000 more Fiat-Chrysler Pacificas. This curve is starting to look like a “hockey stick”! But it is a semi-log plot which means that the growth is greater than “exponential”. In the “Moore’s Law” context of continued rapid growth, I’ve suggested Waymo’s “Kornhauser Law”: Waymo’s Purchase of Driverless Cars grows by 10 times every two (2) years. That implies that in “2020” they’ll order 200,000 driverless cars and in 2022 they’ll order 2 million and by 2025 they’ll order enough to serve essentially every person Trip in the US during a typical day (about 20 Million autonomousTaxis would readily serve the about 1Billion vehicular personTrips that take place on a typical day. To do that well, the service must serve many personTrips on a shared ride basis and must complement existing high quality urban public transit and intercity rail and airplane services. More on that later.
2018.2
2018.5
2009
2012
2015
2017

21. + 60,000 Chrysler Minivans
What will Waymo do with these 20,000 Jaguars and 60,000 Pacificas?
They can’t eat them!

22. + 60,000 Chrysler Minivans
They could provide housing for the homeless in San Francisco. Nice, but not likely

23. Where will Waymo Deploy 20,000 + 60,000 autonomousTaxis
Maybe they’ll “Geographically Market Test the aTaxi Mobility Experience”
Start by operating 1K in 20 different “cities”
Geo-fenced “communities of ~ 300,000” (serve 5% of personTrips)
Add 2K to 1st 20 (grow to 15% personTrip share) + 1K in 20 more “Communities of 300k
More likely they will use them to Geographically Market Test the aTaxi mobility experience around the country to determine where best to deploy the “200,000” that they may buy in two years and the “2 million” that they’ll buy in 4years and so on…
Start by operating 1,000 Jaguars in each of 20 different “cities” (Geo-fenced communities of population of about 300,000 population. The 1,000 aTaxis could serve about 5% of the trips. A good start.
Once they start receiving the 60,000 Paicificas, they could add 2,000 to each of the initial citiesand put 1,000 in 20 new communities of ~300,000 people.

24. Where will Waymo Deploy 20,000 + 60,000 autonomousTaxis
Maybe they’ll “Spread the Mobility Experience”
operate 1K in 20 different “cities”
How about “Central New Jersey” ?
Microcosm of USA
Pop: ~300K
Intra-area Trips/day: ~ 1.0M/day
1K aTaxis would serve ~ 5% personTrips
Focused initially on Mobility Disadvantaged
whose quality-of-life would be improved substantially!
Provide mobility to the 90% of trips not served by walking, biking or Conventional Mass Transit.
In fact one of the good “communities” would be Central New Jersey. It is a microcosm of much of the US and has a population of 300,000 that ake a little more than 1 million persontrips per day. These 1,000 aTaxis would serve about 5% of the trips.
With priority being given to the Mobility Disadvantaged. (Those without access to a car or good public transit.) In this about 90% of the trips aren’t served by walking, biking or reasonable mass transit, h

25. Major Implications…Driverless Cars
Affordable High-quality LoS Mobility for All
PMT (Personal Miles Travelled) goes through the roof
More people able to travel More In order to take advantage of More.
VMT (Personal Miles Travelled go through the roof Unless there is Substantial Ride-sharing.
Average Vehicle Occupancy must at least Double (2x AVO)
Zoning Regulations Change
Moderate density becomes very attractive (a la: Transit Area Development)
Removal of parking requirement makes housing more affordable.
When: 4 years ago Google said “in 4 years”
Is it like “Cheap energy from Nuclear Fusion”?
They announced that they did it last Tuesday!
Affordable Local Package Delivery
“Easy” in wee hours (midnight->5am)
“No one else” using the roads
Amazon needs it now!
Another major implication of Driverless cars is on Goods Movement. In particular Local Package Delivery.
This will be “easy” to do in the middle of the night (for example between 1am and 5am). No one else is using the roads. (except street cleaning). Amazon needs it now!

26. Same driver, different vehicle: Bringing Waymo self-driving technology to trucks
In short, our near-decade of experience with passenger vehicles has given us a head start in trucking.
There are also opportunities for large trucks serving inter-city markets. Most of the Waymo software/hardware is easily modified for use by large trucks. The business case isn’t as strong. But it substantial.

27. Thank You Discussion! alaink@princeton.edu www.SmartDrivingCar.com
You can reach your own conclusions; however, this technology is transformative and it is fast approaching. Thank you.