1. Deployment and Impact of automatedTaxisby
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, ORFE
(Operations Research & Financial Engineering) Director, CARTS
(Consortium for Automated Road Transportation Safety)
Faculty Chair, PAVE
(Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering)
Princeton University
Presented at
InOut 2018
March 15, 2018
Rennes, France

2. So… What’s the problem?

3. So… What’s the problem? Apps
People need/want to go from A to B at time T
+ In USA: 310M people do this ~ 1B times each day
+ ~ 40M (4%) use transit
+ ~ 170M (17%) walk/bike (or could)
+ ~ 2.6M (0.3%) fly

4. PersonTrips per Day, USA
PersonTrip Type
PersonTrips
Miles
Walkable/Bikeable (Dist < 1 mile)
172.5M (1.7%)
0.05B ( 0.5%)
Vehicle PersonTrips (1< Dist < 300 miles)
826.0M (82.5%)
13.69B (78.5%)
Daily PersonTrips (Total USA)
1,006M (100%)
17.43B (100%)
Transit PersonTrips per Day: ~40M ( 4%)

5. PersonTrips per Day, USA
PersonTrip Type
PersonTrips
Miles
Walkable/Bikeable (Dist < 1 mile)
172.5M (1.7%)
0.05B ( 0.5%)
Daily PersonTrips (Total USA)
1,006M (100%)
17.43B (100%)
Transit PersonTrips per Day: ~40M ( 4%)

6. PersonTrips per Day, USA
PersonTrip Type
PersonTrips
Miles
Walkable/Bikeable (Dist < 1 mile)
172.5M (1.7%)
0.05B ( 0.5%)
Vehicle PersonTrips (1< Dist < 300 miles)
826.0M (82.5%)
13.69B (78.5%)
Long PesonTrips ( 300 < Dist )
7.7M (0.8%)
3.66B (21.0%)
Daily PersonTrips (Total USA)
1,006M (100%)
17.43B (100%)
Transit PersonTrips per Day: ~40M ( 4%)

7. PersonTrips per Day, USA
Median Trip Length = 6.7 miles
Half of VMT generated by Vehicle trips > 34 miles
Shorter Half of trips generate only 11% of VMT
Trip Distance (miles)
Trip Distance (miles)
Transit PersonTrips per Day: ~40M ( 4%)

8. Making Sure We Are Using the Same Terminology…
Lots of confusion… ‘Connected’; ‘Autonomous’, ‘Automated’, ‘4 NHTSA Levels’ ‘5 SAE Levels’…
Only 3 kinds:
‘Safe-Driving Cars… (Trucks or Buses)’
Always on Automated Emergency Braking & Lane Centering
Delivers: Safety
Needs Insurance to Promote Wide-spread Adoption w/o Government Mandate
‘Self-Driving Cars… (Trucks or Buses)’
Safe-Driving + Ability to take Hands-Off Wheel and/or Feet-Off Pedals
On Some stretches of Some Roads and Some Times
Delivers: User Convenience + some Environmental Benefits
‘Driverless Cars … (Cars, Trucks or Buses)
Safe-Driving + Always: Hands-Off, Feet-Off; No Steering Wheel or Pedals
Sharing Some Streets at Some Times with Conventionally-driven vehicles
Delivers: Mobility for All + Substantial Environmental Benefits

9. Same driver, different vehicle: Bringing Waymo self-driving technology to trucks
In short, our near-decade of experience with passenger vehicles has given us a head start in trucking.

10. Big-time Implications…Driverless Cars
Affordable High-quality LoS Mobility for All
PMT (Personal Miles Travelled) goes through the roof
More people able to travel More In order to take advantage of More.
VMT (Personal Miles Travelled go through the roof Unless there is Substantial Ride-sharing.
Average Vehicle Occupancy must at least Double (2x AVO)
Zoning Regulations Change
Moderate density becomes very attractive (a la: Transit Area Development)
Removal of parking requirement makes housing more affordable.
When: 4 years ago Google said “in 4 years”
Is it like “Cheap energy from Nuclear Fusion”?
They announced that they did it last Tuesday!
Why Nuclear Fusion Is Always 30 Years Away

11. The World’s 1st aTaxi Service

12. The World’s 1st aTaxi Service

13. Average Vehicle Occupancy USA Typical Day ~ 1B Person Trips

14. Average Vehicle Occupancy USA Typical Day ~ 1B Person Trips 

15. However…

16. Big-time Implications…Driverless Cars
Affordable High-quality LoS Mobility for All
PMT (Personal Miles Travelled) goes through the roof
More people able to travel More In order to take advantage of More.
VMT (Personal Miles Travelled go through the roof Unless there is Substantial Ride-sharing.
Average Vehicle Occupancy must at least Double (2x AVO)
Zoning Regulations Change
Moderate density becomes very attractive (a la: Transit Area Development)
Removal of parking requirement makes housing more affordable.
When: 4 years ago Google said “in 4 years”
Is it like “Cheap energy from Nuclear Fusion”?
They announced that they did it last Tuesday!
Affordable Package Delivery
“Easy” in wee hours (midnight->5am)
“No one else” using the roads
When: “God-send” to Amazon.
Who could make it happen in “4 years”
Why Nuclear Fusion Is Always 30 Years Away

17. The Key for Driverless is Ride-sharing….
How HARD can Social Behavior be to
Unlock Technological Opportunities?

18. Discussion!
Thank You

19. We are still at the beginning of Driverless Cars
“Kornhauser Scale”: K = Log10 (VMT)
Like the Richter Scale for measuring earthquakes
VMT US moving 12 months = 3.2 x VehicleMiles
KUS2017 = Log (3.2 x 1012) =
VMT Worldwide Driverless = 10 miles
Kworldwide Driverless = Log (1.0 x 101) = 1
one Steve Mahan ride in Austin

20. Self-Driving Cars Available Today
# Cadillac CT6 with “Super Cruise” (~10K)
#2: Tesla S AutoPilot (~$5K See Video 1, and Video 2
Very Good Lane Centering, Jam Assist, Driverless Parking, Indication that AutoPilot reduces 50% of crashes
#3: Volvo S90 (Standard Equipment; See video)
OK Lane Centering, Very good Jam Assist and Intelligent Cruise Control
#4: 2014 MB Dystronic Plus (~2,800.)
Poor Lane Centering, Very good Jam Assist and Intelligent Cruise Control
#5 Subaru Eyesight (~3,000) (See Video)
Just Lane Departure Warning, Very good Intelligent Cruise Control, Obtained Superior Rating from IIHS
Others: BMW & Nissan

21. Big-time Implications…Self-Driving Cars
1st and Foremost: provides Comfort & Convenience To the Driver
VMT (Vehicle Miles Travelled) goes through the roof
Land ...Far away & cheap becomes more attractive
Acceleration of sprawl
Driving as an occupation becomes much more attractive
Traditional auto companies sell more cars at higher profit $$$
BMW becomes the ‘Ultimate Riding Machine”
And throw monkey wrenches into Driverless Cars
When: Will begin to happen soon with those most interested in taking advantage of far away cheap land will be first buyers.

22. So… What’s the problem? AI

23. So… What’s the problem? AI

24. KVMT (WorldWide, A&E -> Monday) = 1
KVMT (WorldWide, A&E -> Monday) = 1.0 Kornhauser VMT(Geography, Elapsed Time) Scale = Kornhauser VMT(Space, DT) = Log10 (VMT(Space, DT))

27. But only ~ 10 Driverless miles
Waymo reaches 5 million self-driven miles
The Waymo odometer rolled over to 5,000,000 in February: our self-driving cars have now covered five million miles on public roads.
Steve Mahan, Nov 2015 Austin Tx
Kornhauser Scale (Richter Scale for Earthquakes) K (Mode, DT) = Log 10 (VMTMode, DT )
K (Driverless on Public Streets , Since Adam & Eve) = Log 10 (~10 miles) = 1.0
But only ~ 10 Driverless miles

28. Learning How to Drive Safely
Perception / Cognition
Deep Learning
Deep Driving …. Video

29. Learning How to Drive Safely
Perception / Cognition
Deep Learning
Deep Driving …. Video
Outstanding Issues:
Where do you get the training set?
Virtual reality
2. What about the time dimension?
(See Chapter 6)

30. Apps, Automation & AI New Successful Business Models for Mobilityby
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, ORFE
(Operations Research & Financial Engineering) Director, CARTS
(Consortium for Automated Road Transportation Safety)
Faculty Chair, PAVE
(Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering)
Princeton University
Presented at
InOut 2018
March 15, 2018
Rennes, France

31. Big-time Implications…Safe-Driving Cars
Safety!
You don’t need to take your hands off the wheel or feet off the pedals or be chauffeured to achieve safety.
Insurance
Either results in or be a result of
Today Auto Casualty does NOT give you a discount if your car has SafeDriving Technology.
That will change! Hopefully very soon
Health Care system
Emergency rooms, Ambulances, Organ donor, Social Security (fewer die younger)
Body shops, replacement parts (availability & production)
Police & courts
Technology will probably not enable you to speed run red lights, …
When: Soon with New Cars and accelerated with After-market.

32. Self-Driving Cars Available Today
#1: Tesla S AutoPilot (Autopilot on hardware version 1 cars is available for US$2,500 ($3,000 after delivery) and for HW2 cars, Autopilot is available as "Enhanced Autopilot" for$5,000 ($6,000 after delivery) and additionally full self-driving capability is $3,000 ($4,000 after delivery)) See Video 1, and Video 2
What it has:
Sensors: Camera, Radar, Ultrasonics & GPS
Over-the-air updating of software & downloading of data
What it delivers: (always on)
Avoids collisions from the front and sides, & lane departures
What it delivers: (on {0 < speeds < 130 kph})
Steer within a lane,
Change lanes with the simple tap of a turn signal,
Manage speed by using active, traffic & speed-aware cruise control,
Parallel park
What it does NOT deliver: (Human Driver MUST do it today)
Recognize and React to Stop/Yield Objects
Properly traverse intersections & merges
Steer well within a lane when lane markings are poor,
What we don’t know that it should deliver