1. Climate change, agriculture and food security: proven approaches and new investments, Policy Briefing 29, Brussels, 27 September 2012 Smallholder agriculture under climate change: challenges and outlook Sonja Vermeulen, Head of Research CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security

2. Impacts

3. 4 degrees by 2100 is likely

4. To 2090, taking 14 climate models Four degree rise Thornton et al. 2010 >20% loss 5-20% loss No change 5-20% gain >20% gain Length of growing period (%) Impacts 1: Long-term trends in temperature and rainfall

5. Impacts 2: Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events Pulwaty 2010

6. 2050 compared with 2005 in A1B scenario Cheung et al 2010 Impacts 3: Major transitions in ecosystems and livelihoods

7. By 2050, severe childhood stunting up by 23% in central Africa and 62% in South Asia (uses IFPRI IMPACT model + socio- economic models) Lloyd et al. 2011 Environmental Health Perspectives Impacts 4: Poorest at risk

8. Becoming climate smart

9. Food security Adaptation Ecological footprint Climate-smart agriculture means building resilience, balancing trade-offs, suiting the context

10. Adaptation

11. Adaptive capacity Technology Knowledge & skills Governance & institutions Income & assets Access to information Infrastructure Social capital

12. Key adaptation strategies Incremental adaptation to progressive climate change Closing yield gaps (i.e. sustainable intensification) Raising the bar – technologies & policies for 2030s Climate risk management Technologies (e.g. flood control) Institutions (e.g. index-based insurance) Climate information systems (e.g. seasonal forecasts) Transformative adaptation Changing production systems Changing livelihood portfolios

13. Example: Climate analogue tool Identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality These sites are used for cross-site farmer visits, & participatory crop & livestock trials Adapting to long-term climate trends

14. Example: Climate services Met services produce forecast information downscaled in space & time Farmers & met services work together to ensure forecasts meet local needs Adapting to greater climate variability

15. Relocation of growing areas & processing facilities Agricultural diversification, or shifts Livelihood diversification, or shifts Migration To transformational adaptation?

16. Summary points

17. Climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture: Are more complex than often assumed – and happening faster than often assumed Are unevenly distributed geographically Depend on household and national capacities and contexts as well as on exposure to climate threats Pose major threats to nutrition, welfare, incomes and health among poorer households

18. Responding with climate-smart agriculture: Is foremost about development – addressing smallholder concerns, building assets & resilience Adds new actions on climate to sustainable development Deals with trade-offs, not only win-win-wins Must be landscape-smart too Will not solve future food security on its own (need actions on distribution, diets, waste)

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