1. 2018 Elections: The Two-Party System & Emerging Coalitions

2. The future of political parties in CA & beyond1.
THE BIG SORT
“By sorting into almost every imaginable ‘category’ – age, income, ethnicity, religion – US communities are growing more politically one-sided.”
“The Big Sort” (Bill Bishop)
The future of political parties in CA & beyond

3. Competitive Counties, margin less than 20 percentage points
Republican Landslide Counties, Ford won by 20 percentage points or more
Democrat Landslide Counties, Carter won by 20 percentage points or more
1976 Politics Before the Sort: Presidential election results by county – Jimmy Carter vs. Gerald Ford

4. Competitive Counties, margin less than 20 percentage points
Republican Landslide Counties, Bush won by 20 percentage points or more
Democrat Landslide Counties, Kerry won by 20 percentage points or more
2004 Politics After the Sort: Presidential election results by county – John Kerry vs George W. Bush

5. 2016 County-level Results

6. The Rise of Hyper-Partisanship
“Hyperpartisanship becomes more important when the party coalitions are weaker.”
(Lee Drutman, New America Foundation)

7. The decline of the two-party system2.
PARTISAN DECLINE
“The short-term future of the two party coalitions is that they are becoming smaller, more ideologically and demographically consistent within themselves, and inward-focused rather than outward-focused.”
Time Saler, Grassroots Targeting
The decline of the two-party system

8. Political Animosity
Although partisan registration and affiliation is on the decline, the force driving those remaining in the two major parties trends toward fear and distrust of the “other” party.

9. Political Animosity
In fact, the same study found that the more politically engaged a partisan voter is, the more unfavorable he or she finds the other party.

10. For members of both parties, one of the leading factors in party affiliation is a general belief that the other party’s policies are
“bad for the country”

11. A 2014 Pew Research study found that 30% of conservatives and 23% of liberals would be unhappy if a family member married across party lines

12. are becoming the driving factors for partisan affiliation
FEAR & ANGER
are becoming the driving factors for partisan affiliation

13. THE UNTENABLE COALITIONS “Right now, each party has a foot in each universe…Before too long, the politics will break down into openness versus closedness, dynamism versus stability…the Coalition of Transformation versus the Coalition of Restoration.” “Time for a Realignment,” David Brooks
Upscale urban professionals who make up the ruling class
Globalization-loving business executives
Less-affluent members of the minorities
Globalization-hating white workers

14. IMPENDING REALIGNMENT
Although the Trump administration has accelerated realignment in the Republican Party by breaking from the traditional conservative platform on social issues and free trade, and ushered in a narrative founded largely in nationalism…
…the Democratic Party is increasingly breaking with its historical platform as the base moves increasingly toward young and minority voters in metropolitan epicenters.

15. The Democrat and Republican composition of overall registration has fallen by 12 points and 9 points, respectively. Minor party and nonpartisan registrations have increased by 21 points in the same window.

16. California’s growing electorate is summed up by young, ethnic minorities. First and second generation Latino and API voters are becoming eligible to vote faster here than anywhere else in the US. However, this phenomenon does not translate into equal representation at the polls – as these continue to be the least politically engaged communities statewide.

17. 2018 Gubernatorial Primary Election Results
G. Newsom
2,343,792 (33.7%)
J. Cox
1,766,488 (25.4%)
A. Villaraigosa
926,394 (13.3%)
T. Allen
658,798
(9.5%)
J. Chiang
655,920 (9.4%)

18. LOS ANGELES COUNTY

19. ORANGE COUNTY

20. AN
SAN DIEGO COUNTY

21. Mike Madrid | GrassrootsLab
QUESTIONS?
Mike Madrid | GrassrootsLab