1. Lian Pin Koh, PhD Ecosystem Management Group Department of Environmental Sciences Balancing Societys Priorities Reconciling agricultural expansion, forest protection and carbon conservation in Indonesia

3. More mouths to feed...

4. Higher quality food... (Beef makes you a stronger man)

5. More energy...

6. Conserve biodiversity...

7. Cap GHG emissions...

8. Sustain development and livelihoods...

9. Food Development Biodiversity Energy Emissions

10. Food or fuel?

11. Biodiversity or food?

12. Food Development Biodiversity Energy Emissions

13. Trade-off n. a situation that involves losing one quality or aspect of something in return for gaining another quality or aspect. It implies a decision to be made with full comprehension of the upside and downside of any choice.

14. Develop science-based decision-support tools to help decision makers evaluate trade-offs of pursuing alternative development options.

17. Where & How?

18. Production target Business-As-Usual: Target most productive areas for oil palm Forest preservation: Target degraded areas & avoid forests Food production: Avoid areas suitable for food cultivation Carbon conservation: Avoid lands rich in carbon Hybrid strategy: Consider all priorities Development pathways (scenarios) Current production

19. Outcome variables… Area required for oil palm Forests & biodiversity Food production capacity Carbon stocks

20. Suitability for rice (FAO-IIASA) Suitability for oil palm (FAO-IIASA) Overall land-use land-cover (WRI, MoF, Sekala) Biomass carbon (Ruesch & Gibbs) Peat soil carbon (WRI, MoF, Sekala) GIS data layers:

21. ABD est vailable ata

22. Suitability for rice (FAO-IIASA) Suitability for oil palm (FAO-IIASA) Overall land-use land-cover (WRI, MoF, Sekala) Biomass carbon (Ruesch & Gibbs) Peat soil carbon (WRI, MoF, Sekala) GIS data layers:New GIS layer of intersected polygons (n>500,000):

24. Each polygon assigned conversion probabilities… BAU: proportional to relative oil-palm yield Food production: inversely proportional to rice yield Forest preservation: inv. proportional to habitat quality Carbon conservation: inv. proportional to C-stock Hybrid scenario: BAU*Food*Forest*Carbon New GIS layer of intersected polygons (n>500,000):

25. Download from: www.lianpinkoh.com

26. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/939465/ScenarioAnalysis_PNAS.swf

27. Priority areas for oil palm development under Hybrid scenario Download from: www.lianpinkoh.com

28. Financial returns Livelihoods Future Add-ons … and others

29. Conclusion Every single-priority scenario produced tradeoffs in other priorities

30. Conclusion Every single-priority scenario produced tradeoffs in other priorities Tradeoffs could be minimized through implementation of properly planned and spatially explicit development strategy

31. Thank you for your attention! (More information: www.lianpinkoh.com)