1. Attribution Of Haze Case Study for Nevada Jarbidge Wilderness Area
Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
Bureau of Air Quality Planning
Attribution Of Haze Case Study for Nevada Jarbidge Wilderness Area
Lori Campbell

2. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
Jarbidge Wilderness, Nevada dv=1 Bext=11 VR=350 km
Jarbidge
Visual Range = 350 km
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

3. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
Jarbidge Wilderness, Nevada dv=28 Bext=156 VR=25 km
Jarabidge
Visible Range 25 km
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

4. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
According to IMPROVE monitoring data, the average aerosol extinction for the 20% worst visibility days at Jarbidge Wilderness Area is 25 Mm-1. The contribution from ammonium sulfate is approximately 14%, or about 3.8 Mm-1. The contribution from ammonium nitrate is approximately 6%, or 1.7 Mm-1
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

5. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
While the model clearly does not predict the monitoring data perfectly, comparisons between the timelines should focus on whether the species seasonal trends and episodes are similar.
Next Slide…Table
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

6. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
Table: Comparison of Monitoring to Modeling Data
Modeling Results
20% Worst Days
Sulfate: 25%
Nitrate: 27%
OM: 33%
EC: 9%
Soil: 4%
CM: 2%
20% Best Days
Sulfate: 49%
Nitrate: 15%
OM: 26%
EC: 5%
Soil: 3%
I found this table for the monitoring data on the attribution of haze report, but not for modeling results.
Might be nice to have the modeling results in a comparison table..
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

7. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
The next few slides represents the source apportionment results for sulfate and nitrate.
This graphic compares sulfate apportionment results from the TSSA (Model) and TRA (Monitor) methods.
Both apportionment methods identify Nevada as the most significant geographic source of sulfate (TSSA estimates ~12% contribution; TRA estimates ~10% contribution).
The remaining sulfate is attributed to nearby states and further U.S. regions (up to ~10% contribution for a single geographic source region NWUS), with the largest discrepancy between the apportionments identified with Idaho (TSSA ~12%; TRA ~1%), California (TSSA ~5%; TRA ~15%) and Oregon (TSSA ~11%; TRA ~9%).
The “Other” contribution in the TSSA results is ~35%, and this may include some of the Pacific contribution indicated in the TRA results.
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

8. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
This graphic presents sulfate (top) and nitrate (bottom) apportionment results from the TSSA analysis.
The TSSA results for sulfate and nitrate show a similar pattern of source strength from all geographic regions, with these exceptions:
point sources dominate the sulfate attribution;
mobile sources dominate the nitrate attribution;
and the estimated contributions from Nevada differ (sulfate ~12%; nitrate ~8%).
The graph still show Idaho, Oregon, and California influence as much or sometimes more for SO4 and NO3.
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

9. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
This shows California as a big influence…. On both the 20% worst monitored days and all monitored days at Jarbidge.
Not to concerned about this because California has already has strict controls and projects in place, so we are back to looking at Nevada for reductions.
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

10. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
Next Steps
Reviewed the emissions inventories
Looked at Meteorology – where the emission might be coming from
State emissions maps
Back Trajectories and Residence Time Maps
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

11. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
Organic Materials -
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

12. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
Review of the state SO2 and NOx emissions maps confirms that there are significant sources of both species within Nevada and nearby states, and within the area of meteorological influence suggested by the residence time back trajectory map for Jarbidge WA (Figure 3-6).
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

13. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
Review of the state SO2 and NOx emissions maps confirms that there are significant sources of both species within Nevada and nearby states, and within the area of meteorological influence suggested by the residence time back trajectory map for Jarbidge WA (Figure 3-6).
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

14. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
Views trajectories that end at the site for a given day. 4 trajectories shown on each map correspond to different arrival times in which an air parcel following the display trajectory arrives at the monitoring site. Red at 0500 hrs, white at 1100 hrs, green at 1700 hrs, and black at 2300 hrs. Each plot indicates an air parcel position 3 hours older than the next parcel along the trajectory line. Complete trajectories go back 5 days.
BackTrajectories
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

15. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
The color scaling on the residence time map indicates the fraction of the total time that back trajectory paths fell in a given grid cell. The darker blue regions indicate predominant flow patterns from west of the park.
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
Causes of Haze Assessment (COHA)
March 8, 2005

16. NOW WHAT?

17. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
Control Strategies – SO2 & NOX
BART-eligible Sources
Mohave Power Plant will be closing which is 81% of the SO2 total & 43% of the NOX total from Bart-eligible sources.
Nevada Cement – closing and opening a newer plant with BACT, giving us a reduction in NOX
Mobile Sources – Federal Regulations and Fleet Turnover
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

18. Guidance for Estimating Natural Visibility Conditions under the Regional Haze Rule (page B-3)
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

19. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
9.90
7.90
4.54
This is what we ultimately need to accomplish, according to the rule, we need to get back to natural background conditions by By 2018 we need to meet the first milestone.
Formula from pages 1-4, 1-5, 1-6 from same report:
Haze Index=10 ln (27mm-1)/10) – 9.9
=5.39/60 years= .09dv/yr
.09 * 14yrs = 1.26
=7.90 dv
2002
2002
2018
2034
2050
2064
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

20. Conclusions?? 2018 Projection EI reflect these changes
Control Strategies (ie Closures) meet our 2018 milestone
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

21. Nevada’s attribution to neighbor states
Example:
Zion National Park, Utah
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

22. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
SO4 20% worst days shows nevada’s influence on neighboring states.
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

23. Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

24. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
SO4 –
For Model Results - Nevada Point Sources
Power Plants
For Monitoring Results – Nevada very small
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

25. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
Showing Nevada attribution of SO4 and NO3
Model So4 results – same as previous slide
Model NO3 results – nevada less than 10%, about ½ point, ½ mobile
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

26. Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

27. Zion National Park
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005

28. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
Jarbidge Wilderness
This is what we are working towards!
Questions?
Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning
March 8, 2005