1. Justice Sector Strategy 2011 Justice Sector Forecast Historical perspectives and forecast trends Justice Horizons Seminar 27 October 2011

2. Contents Long-term crime trends Demographic trends Crime resolution trends Court volume trends Forecast sentence trends

3. Contents Long-term crime trends Demographic trends Crime resolution trends Court volume trends Forecast sentence trends

4. Murder rate: Newspaper headlines 2008 Violent crime rises 11% Violent crime, including murder, jumped dramatically in the year to June... Otago Daily Times, 1 October 2008 2009 NZ's murder rate halved in past 20 years...despite an overwhelming public belief that crime has got worse. New Zealand Herald, 7 April 2009 2010 Murder rate up 20 per cent...increase of 38.6 per cent in recorded homicide and related offences. Dominion Post, 1 October 2010 2011 Murder rate at 25-year low Homicide and related offending dropped 23.8 per cent Stuff, 3 October 2011

5. Murder rate: Long-term per capita rate 1985 Each of the newspaper headlines is accurate Downward trend from mid-1980s, though quite volatile Source: Roger Falloon, data compiled from multiple sources

6. Murder rate: Long-term per capita rate 19851950 Each of the newspaper headlines is accurate Downward trend from mid-1980s, though quite volatile Upward trend from low point in the 1950s, then large step up in 1985 Change in recording practice in 1978, following introduction of the Wanganui Computer Source: Roger Falloon, data compiled from multiple sources

7. Murder rate: Long-term per capita rate 19851950 Each of the newspaper headlines is accurate Downward trend from mid-1980s, though quite volatile Upward trend from low point in the 1950s, then large step up in 1985 Volatile and slightly downward/flat prior to 1950 Change in recording practice in 1978, following introduction of the Wanganui Computer Source: Roger Falloon, data compiled from multiple sources

8. Murder rate: Very long-term per capita rate Source: Manuel Eisner, Long-Term Historical Trends in Violent Crime, 2003 Taking a longer view provides some perspective Recent rates are substantially lower than in previous centuries

9. Murder rate: Very long-term per capita rate Source: Manuel Eisner, Long-Term Historical Trends in Violent Crime, 2003 Previous chart on the same vertical scale Taking a longer view provides some perspective Recent rates are substantially lower than in previous centuries

10. Murder rate: Very long-term per capita rate Source: Manuel Eisner, Long-Term Historical Trends in Violent Crime, 2003 2011 headline: Murder rate falls 97% in 500 years Taking a longer view provides some perspective Recent rates are substantially lower than in previous centuries Previous chart on the same vertical scale

11. Tough on crime: A long-term perspective Data sourced from Statistics NZ, Police Annual Reports, and Department of Corrections. From 1994 Crime rate represents reported crime. Earlier figures are equivalent estimates from Statistics NZ. Right vertical axis

12. Tough on crime: A long-term perspective Data sourced from Statistics NZ, Police Annual Reports, and Department of Corrections. From 1994 Crime rate represents reported crime. Earlier figures are equivalent estimates from Statistics NZ. Right vertical axis Left vertical axis

13. Tough on crime: A long-term perspective Data sourced from Statistics NZ, Police Annual Reports, and Department of Corrections. From 1994 Crime rate represents reported crime. Earlier figures are equivalent estimates from Statistics NZ. Left vertical axis Right vertical axis Left vertical axis

14. Tough on crime: A long-term perspective Data sourced from Statistics NZ, Police Annual Reports, and Department of Corrections. From 1994 Crime rate represents reported crime. Earlier figures are equivalent estimates from Statistics NZ. Left vertical axis Right vertical axis Left vertical axis

15. Tough on crime: A long-term perspective Data sourced from Statistics NZ, Police Annual Reports, and Department of Corrections. From 1994 Crime rate represents reported crime. Earlier figures are equivalent estimates from Statistics NZ. Left vertical axis Right vertical axis Left vertical axis

16. Tough on crime: A long-term perspective Data sourced from Statistics NZ, Police Annual Reports, and Department of Corrections. From 1994 Crime rate represents reported crime. Earlier figures are equivalent estimates from Statistics NZ. Left vertical axis Right vertical axis Left vertical axis

17. Tough on crime: A long-term perspective Data sourced from Statistics NZ, Police Annual Reports, and Department of Corrections. From 1994 Crime rate represents reported crime. Earlier figures are equivalent estimates from Statistics NZ. Left vertical axis Right vertical axis Left vertical axis

18. Tough on crime: A long-term perspective Data sourced from Statistics NZ, Police Annual Reports, and Department of Corrections. From 1994 Crime rate represents reported crime. Earlier figures are equivalent estimates from Statistics NZ. Left vertical axis Right vertical axis Left vertical axis Traffic Officers merge with Police in 1992

19. Tough on crime: A long-term perspective Traffic Officers merge with Police in 1992 Left vertical axis Right vertical axis Left vertical axis Data sourced from Statistics NZ, Police Annual Reports, and Department of Corrections. From 1994 Crime rate represents reported crime. Earlier figures are equivalent estimates from Statistics NZ.

20. Tough on crime: A long-term perspective Recorded crime rate leapt from the 1950s to peak in 1992; declining since then Since the 1950s the per capita number of sworn Police has more than doubled Imprisonment rate has more than doubled since the 1980s These trends reflect tough on crime policies, common to many countries Traffic Officers merge with Police in 1992 Left vertical axis Right vertical axis Left vertical axis Data sourced from Statistics NZ, Police Annual Reports, and Department of Corrections. From 1994 Crime rate represents reported crime. Earlier figures are equivalent estimates from Statistics NZ.

21. Crime is falling in many countries Crime is falling across most Western countries: United States: crime has been falling since 1991 Australia: on-going decline since peak in 2001 Scotland: recorded crime at its lowest level for over 30 years, having peaked in 2004/05 Canada: reported crime volume declining over the past decade; Crime Severity Index declined 22% from 1999 to 2009 England and Wales: offences are declining, having peaked in 2007/08 Netherlands: recently started hiring out their prisons to Belgium, citing a reduction in crime as one of the reasons they had space

22. Crime is falling in many countries Crime is falling across most Western countries: United States: crime has been falling since 1991 Australia: on-going decline since peak in 2001 Scotland: recorded crime at its lowest level for over 30 years, having peaked in 2004/05 Canada: reported crime volume declining over the past decade; Crime Severity Index declined 22% from 1999 to 2009 England and Wales: offences are declining, having peaked in 2007/08 Netherlands: recently started hiring out their prisons to Belgium, citing a reduction in crime as one of the reasons they had space Though there are exceptions, for example: Sweden: increasing crime Finland: flat volumes for 2000 to 2009

23. Crime is falling in many countries – why? Many theories about why crime is falling (in the US, though similar in NZ): The Obama effect – election of a black president had an inspirational effect Fall in demand for crack – leading to a fall in associated violent crime Smarter policing – targeting high risk factors Number crunching – analysis of crime patterns Legal abortion – fewer children for young, poor, single mothers More criminals behind bars – so less opportunity to offend Reduced exposure to lead in petrol – reducing behavioural problems Demographics – the Baby Boomers grew up Video games – keeping young people off the streets [+ social media?] Proliferation of camera phones – increasing the risk of being caught Much debate about these (and other) theories, but no consensus. Source: US crime figures: Why the drop?, Tom Geoghegan, 21 June 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13799616.

24. Contents Long-term crime trends Demographic trends Crime resolution trends Court volume trends Forecast sentence trends

25. 65 plus 17% Demographic structure: Age comparison Year: 2010 18 to 24 14% 25 to 64 69% 65 plus 1% 18 to 24 44% 25 to 64 56% ConvictedAll NZ

26. Demographic structure: The Echo Boomers Historical Echo Boomers (born ~1982-95), children of the Baby Boomers (born 1946-61) Most reach age 18-24 in the years 2000-2013 Echo Boomers start reaching age 18

27. Demographic structure: The Echo Boomers Echo Boomers (born ~1982-95), children of the Baby Boomers (born 1946-61) Most reach age 18-24 in the years 2000-2013 Total population of 18-24 year olds expected to peak in 2013 then decline until 2023 HistoricalForecast Echo Boomers start reaching age 18 Decline from 2013 to 2023

28. Demographic structure: The Echo Boomers Echo Boomers (born ~1982-95), children of the Baby Boomers (born 1946-61) Most reach age 18-24 in the years 2000-2013: Total population of 18-24 year olds expected to peak in 2013 then decline until 2023 After a plateau from 2000 to 2010, proportional share of population resumes decline HistoricalForecast HistoricalForecast Echo Boomers start reaching age 18 Decline from 2013 to 2023 Resume decline as proportion of total adult population Plateau from 2000 to 2010

29. Demographic structure: The Echo Boomers Echo Boomers (born ~1982-95), children of the Baby Boomers (born 1946-61) Most reach age 18-24 in the years 2000-2013 Total population of 18-24 year olds expected to peak in 2013 then decline until 2023 After a plateau from 2000 to 2010, proportional share of population resumes decline All else being equal, expect flat/declining crime due to demographic changes HistoricalForecast HistoricalForecast Echo Boomers start reaching age 18 Decline from 2013 to 2023 Resume decline as proportion of total adult population Plateau from 2000 to 2010

30. Contents Long-term crime trends Demographic trends Crime resolution trends Court volume trends Forecast sentence trends

31. Crime resolution rate is increasing Recorded crime volume fairly stable over the last decade Per capita recorded crime rate continued to fall

32. Crime resolution rate is increasing Recorded crime volume fairly stable over the last decade Per capita recorded crime rate continued to fall Meanwhile, resolved crime increasing

33. Crime resolution rate is increasing Recorded crime volume fairly stable over the last decade Per capita recorded crime rate continued to fall Meanwhile, resolved crime increasing Therefore, crime resolution rate is steadily climbing

34. Return to greater use of warnings Definition: This data includes all criminal offences except Traffic. 1994 to 2002: type of offence resolution was stable Stable from 1994 to 2002

35. Return to greater use of warnings Definition: This data includes all criminal offences except Traffic. 1994 to 2002: type of offence resolution was stable 2003 to 2008: fewer warnings and Youth Aid diversion; prosecutions increased Prosecutions increased, while warnings and Youth Aid declined Stable from 1994 to 2002

36. Return to greater use of warnings Definition: This data includes all criminal offences except Traffic. Stable from 1994 to 2002 Less propensity to prosecute, though conviction rate of those prosecuted has been steadily increasing Prosecutions increased, while warnings and Youth Aid declined 1994 to 2002: type of offence resolution was stable 2003 to 2008: fewer warnings and Youth Aid diversion; prosecutions increased 2009 to 2010: less propensity to prosecute: Warnings returned to previous level (Policing Excellence Alternative Resolutions) Though use of Youth Aid has remained at a lower level Warnings returned to previous level

37. Contents Long-term crime trends Demographic trends Crime resolution trends Court volume trends Forecast sentence trends

38. Criminal court volumes are falling Definition: Court volume is measured in terms of number of people with a case or cases ending on a given day. This measure may differ from other court volume statistics. Court volume stable from 1990 to 2002 Stable 1990 to 2002

39. Criminal court volumes are falling Definition: Court volume is measured in terms of number of people with a case or cases ending on a given day. This measure may differ from other court volume statistics. Court volume stable from 1990 to 2002 Then rose to peak in 2009/10 Stable 1990 to 2002 Peak in 2009 and 2010

40. Criminal court volumes are falling Definition: Court volume is measured in terms of number of people with a case or cases ending on a given day. This measure may differ from other court volume statistics. Court volume stable from 1990 to 2002 Then rose to peak in 2009/10 13% reduction in prosecutions occurred in the 2010/11 year 13% drop in prosecutions in 2010/11 Stable 1990 to 2002 Peak in 2009 and 2010

41. Criminal court volumes are falling Definition: Court volume is measured in terms of number of people with a case or cases ending on a given day. This measure may differ from other court volume statistics. Police forecast further reduction in offences and prosecutions, returning to the 2005 court volume by 2015. Court volume stable from 1990 to 2002 Then rose to peak in 2009/10 13% reduction in prosecutions occurred in the 2010/11 year Police forecast a further reduction in prosecutions Due to Policing Excellence and a general reduction in reported crime Stable 1990 to 2002 Peak in 2009 and 2010 13% drop in prosecutions in 2010/11

42. Community vs. Monetary sentences Total sentence volume is driven by prosecution volume and conviction rate Community sentences increasing as a proportion of total sentences The other sentence types are: Prison (8% of total) Other (15% of total, mainly conviction and discharge ). CPS = Community Probation Service New Community sentences introduced in October 2007

43. Community vs. Monetary sentences Total sentence volume is driven by prosecution volume and conviction rate Community sentences increasing as a proportion of total sentences At the expense of monetary sentences (mostly court-imposed fines) Due to combination of fines going out of favour and new community sentence options The other sentence types are: Prison (8% of total) Other (15% of total, mainly conviction and discharge ). CPS = Community Probation Service Forecast assumes slight increase in Community sentence proportion, and slight decrease in Monetary proportion. New Community sentences introduced in October 2007

44. Community vs. Monetary sentences Total sentence volume is driven by prosecution volume and conviction rate Community sentences increasing as a proportion of total sentences At the expense of monetary sentences (mostly court-imposed fines) Due to combination of fines going out of favour and new community sentence options Total of community + monetary sentences is fairly stable The other sentence types are: Prison (8% of total) Other (15% of total, mainly conviction and discharge ). CPS = Community Probation Service Forecast assumes slight increase in Community sentence proportion, and slight decrease in Monetary proportion. New Community sentences introduced in October 2007

45. Contents Long-term crime trends Demographic trends Crime resolution trends Court volume trends Forecast sentence trends

46. Forecast community sentences starts Sentence starts doubled following introduction of new sentences in 2007 Existing sentences, Community Work (64% of total) and Supervision, have also grown strongly since 2007 New sentences introduced in October 2007 Includes%total Community Work 64% Supervision17% Intensive Supervision 4% Extended Supervision 0% Community Detention 9% Home Detention 6%

47. Forecast community sentences starts Sentence starts doubled following introduction of new sentences in 2007 Existing sentences, Community Work (64% of total) and Supervision, have also grown strongly since 2007 Now expected to essentially plateau, due to declining prosecutions, offset by substitution from fines and remittal of fines to community sentences New sentences introduced in October 2007 Includes%total Community Work 64% Supervision17% Intensive Supervision 4% Extended Supervision 0% Community Detention 9% Home Detention 6%

48. Forecast prison population Prison capacity has increased significantly in recent years Previous forecasts showed an increasing prison population Change in definition of capacity New Wiri prison expected to open April 2015 New Mt Eden prison opened 1 June 2011 Old Mt Eden prison closed 1 August 2011 "Reserve Capacity" represents capacity that is not available for operational use, but which could be utilised in an emergency.

49. Forecast prison population Prison capacity has increased significantly in recent years Previous forecasts showed an increasing prison population Change in definition of capacity New Wiri prison expected to open April 2015 New Mt Eden prison opened 1 June 2011 Old Mt Eden prison closed 1 August 2011 "Reserve Capacity" represents capacity that is not available for operational use, but which could be utilised in an emergency.

50. Forecast prison population Prison capacity has increased significantly in recent years Previous forecasts showed an increasing prison population 2011 forecast is very different: Includes impacts of Policing Excellence Prison population peaked in November 2010; forecast to fall over the next few years "Reserve Capacity" represents capacity that is not available for operational use, but which could be utilised in an emergency. Forecast 6% fall in prison population over the next 10 years, compared with 46% increase over the previous 10 years. Change in definition of capacity New Mt Eden prison opened 1 June 2011 Old Mt Eden prison closed 1 August 2011 New Wiri prison expected to open April 2015

51. Bending back the curve The justice sector is a dynamic system that changes over time Policies and procedures were put in place to reduce the seemingly ever-growing prison population forecast Consequently, newer forecasts reflect changing expectations as the system responds to earlier forecasts June 2008

52. Bending back the curve The justice sector is a dynamic system that changes over time Policies and procedures were put in place to reduce the seemingly ever-growing prison population forecast Consequently, newer forecasts reflect changing expectations as the system responds to earlier forecasts 2008 forecast June 2008

53. Bending back the curve The justice sector is a dynamic system that changes over time Policies and procedures were put in place to reduce the seemingly ever-growing prison population forecast Consequently, newer forecasts reflect changing expectations as the system responds to earlier forecasts June 2009 2008 forecast

54. Bending back the curve The justice sector is a dynamic system that changes over time Policies and procedures were put in place to reduce the seemingly ever-growing prison population forecast Consequently, newer forecasts reflect changing expectations as the system responds to earlier forecasts 2008 forecast 2009 forecast June 2009

55. Bending back the curve The justice sector is a dynamic system that changes over time Policies and procedures were put in place to reduce the seemingly ever-growing prison population forecast Consequently, newer forecasts reflect changing expectations as the system responds to earlier forecasts June 2010 2008 forecast 2009 forecast

56. Bending back the curve The justice sector is a dynamic system that changes over time Policies and procedures were put in place to reduce the seemingly ever-growing prison population forecast Consequently, newer forecasts reflect changing expectations as the system responds to earlier forecasts 2008 forecast 2009 forecast 2010 forecast June 2010

57. Bending back the curve The justice sector is a dynamic system that changes over time Policies and procedures were put in place to reduce the seemingly ever-growing prison population forecast Consequently, newer forecasts reflect changing expectations as the system responds to earlier forecasts June 2011 2008 forecast 2009 forecast 2010 forecast

58. Bending back the curve The justice sector is a dynamic system that changes over time Policies and procedures were put in place to reduce the seemingly ever-growing prison population forecast Consequently, newer forecasts reflect changing expectations as the system responds to earlier forecasts 2011 forecast 2008 forecast 2009 forecast 2010 forecast June 2011

59. Dropping off the peak Current prison population per capita is close to the all time high

60. Dropping off the peak Current prison population per capita is close to the all time high The forecast decline in the prison population returns the per capita rate to around the 2005 level

61. Dropping off the peak Current prison population per capita is close to the all time high The forecast decline in the prison population returns the per capita rate to around the 2005 level Forecast for 2021 is still more than 3 times higher than in 1950

62. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Niels Bohr, Danish physicist (1885 - 1962) Closing comment