1. Scenario Project „Yamal Oil and Gas 2040“
Purpose and Goals
About Scenarios
Overview of a construction process
Role of other Work Packages

2. Scenario Project Purpose and Goals
Purpose of the scenario project in the context of WP5:
Improve Arctic rights- and stakeholders’ capacity for adapting effectively to changing conditions and opportunities
Making policy relevant information accessible, helping policy planners to make better policy
Goals
Creating scenarios to find alternative answers to the questions what oil and gas extraction in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug cold look like by 2040
Analyse the consequences for multiple stakeholder
Derive strategic implications and maybe even some options to handle uncertain futures re the scenario topic

3. About Scenarios Are group products
About Scenarios Are group products. Scenario construction is a group process
Scenarios approach is a communication platform.
The participants generate scenarios.
Scenarios are constructed in a series of brainstorming and consolidation/reflection sessions.
The scenarios are not the product of a computer model.

4. About Scenario Overview of a construction process
WS 1
WS 2
WS 3
1 Scoping
Defining the focal question
Defining the scenario topic
2 Environment Scanning
List of descriptors (≈30-50)
3 Descriptor Assessment
Uncertainty-impact matrix
List of key uncertainties (8)
4 Key Uncertainty Projections
Definitions, current state
Alternative outcomes
5 Scenario Construction
Abstract scenario frameworks
6 Scenario Description
Pictures of the future
Histories of the future
Scenario descriptions
7 Consequences
Opportunities and threats
8 Strategic Implications
Robust strategic options
9 Dissemination
Reports
Transfer workshops
Environment scanning: What is influencing my scenario topic?
Find out about Arctic/non-Arctic influences affecting Russian oil and gas development
Ex: climate, weather, oil price, geopolitics, domestic politics, technology, governance, legal developments etc.
Description assessment:
Trends (3-4) definitions, current state, alternative outcomes
Uncertainties (8-12) definitions, current state, alternative outcomes
Take all this in a coherent product!  adding refinement, information etc.
2-4 scenarios can be expected, 3 min., 5 max scenarios should be planned for

5. About Scenarios Participants are knowledge carriers
About Scenarios Participants are knowledge carriers. They bring their respective “background knowledge” to the table
Knows about resource/drilling innovation
Knows about potential CC impacts in Knows what we cannot know about it today
Scenario Construction
Participant with background in economics
in politics
in technology
in law
in climate change
in societal change
in geology
Knows about Russian politics as well as UNFCCC process
Knows about risk calculation of energy companies and about global oil price development
Knows about geological uncertainties in YNAO and Kara Sea

6. Scenarios in our context Integrate background knowledge through researchers from other WPs
GERICS
WP 1

7. Needed from experts
Participation in the workshops (funding is provided for through Russia case study)
1st workshop: 7 and 8 December 2017, Moscow
2nd workshop: Spring 2018
3rd workshop: Autumn 2018
No exact data needed
We cannot define what kind of input we are going to need before we actually start the discussions in the workshop. The participants as a group will define their influential factors and they will also select what to focus on for the scenario construction.
So some flexibility demanded from participants, bit difficult to prepare

8. Needed from experts Input as to
projections of sea ice cover and thickness in the Kara Sea and along the Northern Sea Route – seasonal (especially differentiated between winter and summer) and decadal (until 2040)
projections of temperature increase for the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug – seasonal (especially differentiated between winter and summer) and decadal (until 2040)
projections of changes in wind, cloudiness and precipitation in the Yamal-Nenets AO – seasonal (especially differentiated between winter and summer) and decadal (until 2040);
projections of permafrost thaw in the Yamal-Nenets AO by 2040
potential innovations in the field of weather and climate prediction
reliability of the models behind it, error margins of estimates, diverging expert opinions; and deviating models/projections
help with the interpretation of the climate data and possible innovations for the specific needs and interests of the engaged stakeholders
But here are some ideas as to what kind of information is likey to be relevant for the workshops