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Trading Demographics Background for Advertising Agencies November 2005
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Introduction … The FTA broadcasters have been working with industry media experts, via CAANZ and the Media Independents to develop a more defined set of trading demographics for the market. The industry is currently working with a vast number of demographics which is bringing into question the integrity of the market’s utilisation of the trading currency. A demographic list has been developed which provides a common trading base for free television broadcasters with the exception of a small number of targets that enable individual Broadcasters to continue to address individual market needs.
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NZ is out of step with international Best Practice.
The requirement for increasing audience granularity is subjecting the Peoplemeter panel to undue pressure. To illustrate the relative robustness of New Zealand’s Peoplemeter panel, NZ has a ratio of one Peoplemeter to every 8,200 people, compared with the UK ratio at 1:11,500 NZ is out of step with international Best Practice. The UK trades on approximately 20 audiences with a population of just under 60 million Global Guidelines for TAM recommends that minimum10-year age breaks should prevail for analysis There is no intention to restrict the ability to analyse and report on any combination of audiences, as is current practice. Sydney = 5647, Melbourne = 5745 For under 20s we are able to access data at 1 year increments. On average, each of these 1 year increments has a sample of 17 people. On average each 5 year increment has a sample of around 70 people.
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Margins of Error for a Rating of 10
This graph illustrates the margin of error that applies to a single observation at various sample sizes. For example, at a sample of 50 if a specific spot on a schedule rated 10 TARPs, the relative margin of error could see that spot reported anywhere between 2 and 18 TARPs. As sample reduces, MOE increases. Dividing our robust total sample of around 1200 people into relatively narrow demographic groups brings with it increased volatility in performance.
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Variability of ratings delivery decreases with increases in number of spots and/or sample size
7 11 21 94 154 Sample 189 166 170 263 216 543 There is a marked reduction in volatility as multiple observations are made. For example, in the first campaign show above, at a spot level the average MOE is 66% on a spot but falls to 14% when the campaign considered. As the number of observations (no. of spots) increases, the relative MOE decreases.
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How were the audience groups determined?
The Trading Demographics list has been defined collaboratively between the FTA Broadcasters, along with industry experts from AGB Nielsen Media Research, CAANZ and the Media Independents. A final sense check was undertaken with MediaSeNZ, the media auditor utilised by a large number of key advertisers. Four key criteria: Consideration of the demos that the market currently trades against. Sufficiently robust sample sizes (Minimum 100 Sample) A list which is strategically sound and provides sufficient coverage. Sense check Exercise of closely scrutinising the demos that we are currently working with. Goes without saying – all proposed trading targets have a sample exceeding 100 Need to ensure coverage of all age ranges, need to give due consideration to targeting requirements such as upper income, upper socio etc. Does it make sense.
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Industry Agreed Consolidated Trading Demographics list…
COMMON TO ALL FTA’s: 5-14 (n=207) 10-19 (n-160) 15-29 (n=187) 18-39 (n=321) 18-49 (n=511) 25-54 (n=494) Females (n=138) Females (n=177) Females (n=271) Females (n=268) Males (n=131) Males (n=144) Males (n=234) Males (n=226) HHS (n=190) HHS (n=264) HHS w/Kids 0-14 (n=160) 25-54 Soc 1-3 (n=234) 25-54 HHI $60K+ (n=246) Homeowners (n=322) TVNZ/PRIME: *(DISCRETIONARY CANWEST) 25+ (n=789) 40+ (n=542) 55+ (n=297) Females 40+ (n=291) Males 40+ (n=257) Speaking on behalf of TVNZ Almost 90% of revenue is written against demos consisting of Age / Sex or HHS elements Trading demos list exactly matches with approx 50% of revenue placed with TVNZ If we ‘stretch’ the proposed targets by 5 years either way, we cover over 80% of TVNZ’s revenue. TVNZ ONLY: *(DISCRETIONARYCANWEST/PRIME) Maori & Pacific Island (n=170) * Broadcaster may choose to trade against dependent on situation/advertiser
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Industry Agreed Consolidated Auckland Trading Demographics List
Sample Sizes in Auckland constrain the available Auckland Trading Demographic list. All other Trading Demographics will require ‘Promote to National’ to analyse regional buys. Females (n=100) COMMON TO ALL FTA’s: 18-39 (n=113) 18-49 (n=180) 25-54 (n=176) 25-54 HHI $60K+ (n=101) Homeowners 25-54(n=100) TVNZ/PRIME: (DISCRETIONARY CANWEST) 25+ (n=275) 40+ (n=189)
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A Working Example: MediaSeNZ Audience Mapping
This example maps targets in the media sense audit pool onto the Trading Demographics. The analysis undertaken clearly demonstrated that performances indexed within the generally accepted 10% margin of error, with the vast majority falling within a 5% differential.
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MediaSeNZ Audience Mapping
Indexes MediaSenz Sample Closest Mapping to Trading Demo Top 10 Top 20 Top 30 Top 50 Top 100 All People 14-49 572 18-49 515 103 104 105 All People 15-39 373 18-39 331 106 All People 16-39 355 All People 18-29 160 100 101 109 All People 18-34 236 97 99 All People 20-44 403 102 All People House Hold Income 40K+ 326 25-54 501 All People House Hold Income 60K + 242 Trading Demo Female 13-24 153 F15-34 143 Female 18-39 179 Female 20-44 214 F18-39 Female 25-39 134 92 95 Female 25-49 226 F25-54 266 98 Female House Hold Shoppers 25-49 178 HHS 20-44 188 93 Female House Hold Shoppers with Children 5-14 107 HHS W/KIDS 0-14 152 90 94 House Hold Shoppers 18-44 House Hold Shoppers 20-44 House Hold Shoppers 20-54 276 HHS 25-54 265 House Hold Shoppers 25-49 220 House Hold Shoppers with Children 0-14 House Hold Shoppers with Children 0-18 173 Male 15-34 Male 18-34 113 M18-39 Male 18-39 Male 18-49 244 AVE MIN MAX
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Implementation Plan … In order to make the adoption and movement to trading audiences as smooth as possible, a phased implementation plan has been proposed. For those with Terms of Trade or VID agreements, a natural junction would be as those agreements mature. For non-TOT/VID clients, a transition from early 2006 (eg: Feb) is planned. Full Implementation by 31 December 2006 is expected, however it is anticipated that most business will transition to new trading demographics by 30 June 2006. The specific trading demographics will be reviewed from time to time in consultation with the Industry subject to market conditions. Initially a two year review period has been agreed.
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In Summary … The FTA Broadcasters and media and research experts across the industry have agreed that it is in the best interests of the market to move towards Global Best Practice. Such a move will ensure this critical currency is utilised with integrity to the benefit of all stakeholders, eg: auditing benchmarks will be more robust and results more measurable. CAANZ and the vast majority of the Media Independents are poised to work with advertisers on the transition, commencing with calendar year TOT/VID agreements.
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