1. THEORETICAL PROBABILITY - SIMPLE EVENTS OCCURING
Math Self tutor
THEORETICAL PROBABILITY - SIMPLE EVENTS OCCURING

2. Pennsylvania state standard: data analysis and probability
M7.E – Find the theoretical probability of a simple/compound event

3. OBJECTIVES
Student will be able to find the probability of a simple event when given the proper information.

4. Terms to Know
Probability: measurement on how likely it is for an event to occur
Theoretical Probability: a statement of the probability of an event without doing an experiment or analyzing data.
Favorable outcome: outcome that you want to happen.
Possible outcomes: how many total outcomes that can occur in a given situation
How do you show probability as a fraction?
P (event) = ____number of favorable outcomes____
number or possible outcomes for event

5. Probability: Simple Event Occurring
A person has a deck of cards that have been shuffled. What is the probability of someone pulling a king from the deck?
STEP 1: FIND THE NUMBER OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.
Remember that the denominator tells you how many possible outcomes there are for the given event. Since a deck of cards has 52 cards, there are 52 possible outcomes. So, the denominator is 52.

6. Probability: Simple Event Occurring
STEP 2: FIND THE NUMBER OF FAVORABLE OUTCOMES
What card do we want to pick from the deck?
A king (this is our favorable outcome since this is what we want)
Since we want to pick out a king, we need to find out how many kings are in the deck. How many kings are in a deck of cards?
There are 4 kings in a deck of cards. So out of the 52 possible outcomes, there are 4 that we want. There are 4 favorable outcomes. The 4 becomes your numerator.
Now you have your fraction.

7. Probability: Simple Event Occurring
STEP 3: PUT YOUR FRACTION IN LOWEST TERMS!
Answer
The chances of pulling a king out of a deck at random is one in thirteen. =

8. Practice with Probability
A bag contains 4 red marbles, 2 blue marbles, and 6 orange marbles. What is the probability of pulling out an orange marble?
Step 1 – Find total possible outcomes
Step 2 – Find total number of favorable outcomes
Step 3 - Put fraction in lowest terms
number of favorable outcomes
total possible outcomes
(12)
(6) =

9. More Practice…
a. b. c. d.
Using the spinner to the right, find the probability of the spinner landing on green?

10. More Practice…
a. b. c. d.
Using the spinner to the right, find the probability of the spinner landing on green?