1. The Scientific and Social Challenges of Global Warming
Jeffrey T. Kiehl
Climate Change Research Section
National Center for Atmospheric Research
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2. Outline History of climate change science How has the climate changed?
How will the climate change?
How are we involved in the change?
How to communicate information to the public?
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3. History of Climate Change Science
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4. Joseph Fourier Asked: What determines the temperature of Earth?
1824 & 1827 works noting that atmosphere keeps Earth warm
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5. The Greenhouse Effect T
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6. The Greenhouse Effect T
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7. John Tyndall In 1860s measured what gases absorb thermal radiation
Found that water vapor and carbon dioxide are major absorbers
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8. The Greenhouse Effect T T
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9. Svante Arrhenius
In 1896 noted that industrial input of carbon dioxide would build up
Calculated Earth would warm by 4 °C for a doubling of carbon dioxide
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10. Dave Keeling
In 1950s to present Keeling measured the increase in carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere
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11. The Keeling Curve
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13. IPCC(2007)
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14. How has the climate changed?
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15. What is Changing? Temperature (increase)
Rainfall (increased intensity)
Snow cover (decrease)
Sea ice cover (decrease)
Ocean heat (increase)
Ocean acidity (increase)
Sea Level (increase)
Glacial coverage (decrease)
Ecosystems (decrease/shifts)
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16. Ammann et al. (2006)
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17. Ammann et al. (2006)
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18. IPCC Temperature Trends
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19. IPCC (2007)
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20. Nghiem et al. (2007)
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22. How will the climate change?
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24. Change in Temperature from Present
Where we are heading
Crowley(2001)
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Present
Past

25. September Sea Ice Conditions
Gradual forcing results in abrupt ice transitions
From 80 to 20% extent in 10 years.
Winter maximum shows
Smaller, more gradual decreases
“Abrupt”
transition
Observations
Simulated
5-year running mean
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(Holland et al., 2006)

26. Chapter 11 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
US Regional Temperature Increase
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27. US South West Is the current drought just the start?
IPCC Distribution Multi-Model Outlook:
20th century
21st century
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Seager et al. 2007

28. How are we involved
in the change?
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29. Human Factors Contributing to Global Warming
Growth in Population
Growth in Demand for Energy
Changes in Technology
Changes in Consumption
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30. US is 5% of global population, but 25% of global emissions
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31. Environment
Humans
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32. Leiserowitz(2004)
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33. How public values the environment
Given all of this scientific information, why has little been done to address the problem of global climate change?
How public values the environment
Ineffective communication of information
Special interests distortion of information
Reluctance of public to accept information
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34. Valuing the Environment
Utilitarian value
What nature can provide for us
Intrinsic value
Inherent value in nature independent of us
Type of value determines our way of relating to the environment
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35. Personality Structure} Beliefs
{Science, Education,
Media, IT}
{Social Constructs,
Political Systems,
Economic System}
{Religious Systems,
Family Systems,
Personality Structure}
Beliefs
Information
Values
Behaviors
Social
Norms
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38. Information to the Public?
How to Communicate
Information to the Public?
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39. Communication Challenges (How to Deliver Information)
What is the Role of Affect in Conveying the Message?
Is Information by Itself Enough?
How Can the Message be Better Delivered?
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40. The Role of Affect in Conveying Information
Tendency to defend against depressing news (Negative effect)
What has been missing to date is the neglect of affect of information (Positive effect)
Moser (2007)
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41. Mechanisms to Deal with Affects
Denial of threat
Belief problem won’t effect me
Projection of responsibility onto someone else
Fatalism
Wishful thinking or rationalization
Refusal to change
Uncertainty trap
Displacement of attention to other issues
Numbing (Apathy)
Moser (2007)
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42. Is Information Enough?
Existing belief that information is sufficient to change attitudes and behaviors
But information is not enough to change attitudes
Importance of:
Who is delivering the information?
How is the information delivered?
“The most important thing to know for motivating behavior is your audience’s beliefs and values”
Chess & Johnson (2007)
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43. Culture & Information
Issue Cultures: Social problems that become a concern for society (e.g. 9/11 & security)
Bridging Metaphors: Scientific ideas are encoded in a distinct language that need to be decoded for the public
Cultural Whirlwinds: Rapidly evolving sequences of events that create a vortex
Ungar (2007)
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44. Information Transformation
Scientific
Observations
Public
Awareness
Affect Laden
Metaphors
Narratives
Value
Systems
Behavior
Theory
Models
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45. Without deep reflection, we have taken
on the story of endings, assumed the
story of extinction… We need new
stories…a new narrative that would
imagine another way, to learn the
infinite mystery and movement
at work in the world.
Linda Hogan
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