1. BREXIT Latvijas stratēģija
Asoc. prof. Gundars Bērziņš

2. BREXIT pārrunu teorētiskais ietvars Latvijas pozīcija
Sociālai apmaiņas teorija (Social exchange theory)
a) iznākums = ieguvumi – izdevumi
b) lielākā ietekme pārrunās ir tai pusei, kura ir mazāk ieinteresēta pozitīvā sarunu rezultātā
Ieguvumu zaudējumu analīze (Cost – Benifit analythis)
CHERRY PICKING stratēģija
«Sadali un kontrolē» stratēģija

3. Lielbritānijas V.s. Latvijas ietekme ES
Lielbritānijas pienesums ES budžetam (gads/EUR)
18,21 miljardus iemaksā
7,5 miljardus saņem
-10,71 miljards starpība
Latvijas pienesums ES budžetam (gads/EUR)
0,206 miljardus iemaksā
0,982 miljardus saņem
+ 0, 764 miljardi starpība

4. Latvijas pozīcija Oficiālie Ārlietu ministrijas formulētie mērķi
Mūsu pilsoņu interešu aizstāvība
Valsts drošība, saglabāt saites NATO ietvaros
3. Uzņēmējdarbības veicināšana
Netiešie mērķi un uzdevumi:
Politiskie
Ministriju un nozaru
Tautsaimniecības nozaru
hree elements are common to a crisis: (a) a threat t
Crisis management is the process by which an organization deals with a disruptive and unexpected event that threatens to harm the organization, its stakeholders, or the general public.o the organization, (b) the element of surprise, and (c) a short decision time.[4

5. UK ekonomika

6. 3 scenāriji, sektoriālā ietekme
  Hard Brexit – Trade and labour are equally restricted. Weighting: labour 50%, trade 50%.
  Free trade – The UK obtains significant concessions on trade and is allowed to impose significant
restrictions on labour. Weighting: labour 90%, trade 10%.
  Free labour – The UK suffers significant restrictions on trade but continues to adhere to free movement of EU labour. Weighting: trade 90%, labour 10%.
Table 1 shows the results under each scenario. For some sectors, such as hotels and restaurants, an emphasis of a deal on either labour or trade could see its ranking move from bottom to top. By contrast, food and drink manufacturing stands out across the board because of its particularly heavy reliance on EU labour as well as significant exposure to EU exports.

7. Tirgus situācija
Spring Budget 2017: Budget statement to address Brexit effect and to impact business rates

8. Vai šķēršļi palīdz ekonomkai attīstībai?

9. Latvijas politiskā pozīcija
Visu valstu uzņēmumi
Latvijas politiskā pozīcija
Latvijas ekonomiskā pozīcija
Valstu uzņēmumi, UK ES
ES uzņēmumi
Latvijas uzņēmumi
Latvijas Valsts LV UK
UK uzņēmumi
UK, vieta biznesam

10. Kādus uzņēmumi vai nozares Latvija vēlētos piesaistīt?
Globālo kompāniju Eiropas pārstāvniecības, kur galvenā mītnes zeme ES ir Latvija, bizness visā ES:
Mērķis:
Piesaistīt uzņēmumus ar augstu pievienoto vērtību
Veidot pasaules līmeņa kompetenci konkrētajā nozarē Latvijā
Augsti kvalificēta darbaspēka piesaiste Latvijai
Reputācija
Multiplikātors
Kritiskās masas efekts
Simple Dutch Taxes Attract Multinationals
  AMSTERDAM, Netherlands -- The alliance between the Swedish-Swiss engineering group Asea Brown Boveri and France's Alstom is just the latest venture to succumb to the draw of the Netherlands.  Registering in Amsterdam as an NV, or public limited company, it will join the likes of listed companies such as Italy's Gucci, as well as myriad holding companies domiciled here that have no obvious ties to the Netherlands.  The country is a magnet for foreign firms for a number of reasons - its good infrastructure, linguistically gifted work force, moderate wage rises and a near absence of strikes.  But analysts say its main pulling power stems from its simple fiscal and legal regime.  "If we create a holding company structure in the Netherlands, the rules and regulations governing that are efficient and easy to handle," ABB spokesman John Fox said.  As a result, scores of companies from Europe, Asia and North America list shares or depository receipts on the Amsterdam stock exchange. They benefit from the so-called "participation exemption" under which dividend income and capital gains on the sale of shares in subsidiaries is exempt from corporate tax in the Netherlands, ensuring a company's profits face taxation only once.  "When it comes to collecting and dispersing dividends, it's much easier and more efficient to do that on a cross-border basis from the Netherlands," Fox said.  This feature is not unique to the Netherlands - it is just that it is more practical in its implementation.  A wide array of tax treaties have evolved from centuries of active Dutch international trade.  "Under these tax treaties, you determine how to divide the right to levy tax. This avoids double taxation," Houweling said. Liberal Amsterdam may also be more hospitable to foreign firms that have had domestic doors slammed in their faces.  That was the case as far as luxury goods group Gucci was concerned, sources close to the firm said.  "One of the reasons Gucci is listed in Amsterdam is that it was refused by the Milan exchange. It had negative equity and did not have three years of audited profits. It did not meet the requirements," one source said.  Amsterdam is also a familiar market to British and U.S. investors, and because Dutch law also allows firms to issue preference shares, making Amsterdam the ideal place to protect themselves against hostile takeovers.  Gucci has twice issued ordinary shares to fend off the advances of France's LVMH this year and the source close to Gucci said this is not allowed in some other countries. 

11. Mērķvalstis, nozares un uzņēmumi
Europe is the second-largest market for India’s $146 billion IT outsourcing industry, generating around 30% of its revenue. Many IT companies have their EU headquarters in the UK and use the country as a gateway for business across the EU. Some 800 Indian IT companies currently have exposure to the UK, and employ around 110,000 people there.
Major challenges for Indian companies could arise from the volatility of the British pound, uncertainty about future policies between the UK and Europe, and changes in financial and banking systems.

12. Mērķvalstis, nozares un uzņēmumi

13. Mērķvalstis, nozares un uzņēmumi

14. Mērķvalstis, nozares un uzņēmumi

15. Secinājumi un priekšlikumi
Proaktīva ārvalstu investīciju piesaiste, izmantojot esošos resursus (LIAA POLARIS). Fokuss – globāli uzņēmumi, kas izmantojuši UK par mītnes zemi ES
Fokuss uz servisa sektoriem, kas nodrošina pieeju ES tirgum (farmācija, telekomunikācijas, maksājumi, veselības pakalpojumi, visas regulētās, vai daļēji regulētās nozares)
Nodokļu likumdošana – investīciju un darbības nosacījumi (Holandes piemērs – pārvaldības un nodokļu sistēmas vienkāršība, holdingu nodokļu regulējums, akciju pārdošanas dubultā neaplikšana, Preferred akciju regulējums)

16. Twitter: @gundars_berzins
Paldies.
Lūdzu jautājumus!