1. Chief Advisor & CEO, National Centre for Cold-chain Development
Presentation to Hon’ble Members of Parliament Agricultural Challenges & Prospects Focus: Eastern Agro-Climatic Zones 19th July 2018 Speaker’s Research Initiative (SRI) Parliament of India
Pawanexh Kohli
Chief Advisor & CEO, National Centre for Cold-chain Development
&
Member (knowledge partner), Inter-ministerial Committee on Doubling Farmers’ Income

2. 8x Making food available 2.8x 1961 40x 3x 13x 14x 2017 1.3 billion
461 million
Urban population was 18%
Food security low - famines
Population growing at 2.1%
Food Aid - Ship to mouth
Intensive Agriculture programs
The Green Revolution – hybrids
Operation Flood – white revolution
Regulated agricultural markets
Procurement induced growth
Urban population is 35%
Food Security is a Right
Population growing at 1.2%
Net exporter, 7th largest globally
Post-harvest management
Environmental concerns
Surplus buffers, excesses
One-nation unified market
Farmers not equally benefited
40x 3x 8x
13x
14x

3. DFI Committee – Approach Inter-ministerial - constituted by Government in April-2016
Transition from agriculture to agri-enterprise.
Integrate interventions to capture greater value.
Ensure sustainability in production management.
Evidence based, in context to current day agricultural status.
Continuous recommendations in parallel, for adoption by government.
Income security of farmers as important as food security of nation.

4. State-wise income at current and constant prices, 2011-12
Sources of income in
State-wise income at current and constant prices,
State
2002–03
(59th Round)
2012–13
(70th Round)
Growth Rate (%)
Current
Constant
Bihar
22,827
44,038
44,167
39,716
6.82
-1.03
Jharkhand
23,211
44,778
59,305
53,329
9.83
1.76
Odisha
12,065
23,276
59,440
53,450
17.29
8.67
West Bengal
24,145
46,581
48,192
43,336
7.16
-0.72
Chhattisgarh
17,209
33,199
63,354
56,969
13.92
5.55
Uttar Pradesh
20,683
39,902
59,716
53,698
11.19
3.01
All India
25,622
49,431
77,977
70,118
11.77
3.56
All India Real Income growth rate ( to )
Cultivation %
Livestock 14.7 %
Non-farm business %
Wages & salaries %
Northern Zone: Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh
North-Eastern Zone: Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, Tripura
Eastern Zone: Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal (WB)
Central Zone: Madhya Pradesh (MP), Chhattisgarh
Western Zone: Goa, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan
Southern Zone: Andhra Pradesh (AP), Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu (TN), Telangana
Northern Hill Zone: Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), Himachal Pradesh (HP), Uttarakhand (UK)
Union Territories (UTs): Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Chandigarh, Daman & Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Delhi*,Lakshadweep, Puducherry
Source: Est. by DFI Committee, NSSO 59th and 70th Rounds

5. Effect of Targeted Income Growth Rates
Change income ratio of farm income: non-farm income from 60:40 to 70:30.
Change in farmers’ income 10.4% annual G.R.
Adopt fork-to-farm approach in production.
Adopt sustainable production system.
Doubling in real terms ( to ) ( , base year)
Farmers Income
(Rs)
Base Year:
At Prices
Terminal Year:
At Current Prices
Farm
Non-Farm
Total
All India
58,246
38,457
96,703
1,16,165
76,529
1,92,694
1,63,456
1,07,922
2,71,378
Source: DFI Committee Report
Growth in income to be driven by by expanding market; productivity to minimise input costs; negotiate risks; optimise safety net & add new activities.

6. Key observations
Price signals alone not sufficient; need to factor in consumer demand for market intelligence.
Current market architecture isolates the farmers from option to access the national market.
Produce is monetised at first-instance, at mandis where local market surplus exists; more optimal to direct traffic to demand linked destinations.
Poor supply chain adds to inflation pressure; feeds losses does not generate value for farmers.
No differentiated produce-specific handling at source points; weakest links at village level.

7. Key observations
Inverse relation between production and income can be broken by logistics networks.
Markets are not perfect. Government role must continue and be to make the system unified and not remain or area bound.
Setting up post-production activities is not sufficient; Effective market intelligence to be developed.
Farmer Producer Organisations need to develop contiguous clusters of farming land. Village Producer Organisations to create scale and integration.
Secondary agriculture not defined as an activity for farming community; need to broad-base agricultural activities.

8. Geographic Area per market Gross cropped per market
Markets
States
Geographic Area per market
Net sown per market
Gross cropped per market
Cropping Intensity
Farmers per market
Villages per market
Bihar 52 43 62
1.44
4011 22
Chhattisgarh
102 53
1.23
3036 15
Jharkhand
101 21 25
1.19
4817 37
Odisha 78 26 30
1.15
2069 24
Uttar Pradesh 42 45 70
1.56
3326 17
West Bengal 29
1.83
1516 11
Andhra Pr.
895
447
549
36265
147
Arunachal Pr
310 14
1.27
1121 19
Assam 57 31 46
1.48
2973
Gujarat
490
315
385
1.22
13619
Haryana
157
227
412
1.81
8828
Himachal Pr.
994
169
294
1.74
36823
319
J&K
6734
352
37737
192
Karnataka
154 95
113
5294
Kerala 35 23
1.30
606 1
Madhya Pr.
566
424
640
1.51
18063
Maharashtra 50 63
1.26
2855 9
Manipur
188
1.00
4824
Meghalaya
178 27 32
3926 51
Mizoram 96 5
1044 3
Nagaland 86 33
1.32
2786 7
Punjab 28 82
1.91
1057
Rajasthan
754
528
723
1.37
29998
Sikkim
373 76
140
1.84
6179
Tamil Nadu
165 65 74
1.14
5398
Telangana
442
217
267 -
Tripura 10
1.43
534 2
Uttarakhand
438 92
1.60
12954
129
Market density viz market linkage.
Type of market: aggregation and dispatch system to reach demand that is farther afield.
APLM, 2017 allows warehouses and cold stores to be licenced as markets.
Source: DFI Committee Report

9. Marketable Surplus or Market Surplus
Measure of surplus in hands of the producer is not as relevant.
Measure of surplus in a market is more relevant measure.

10. Need for new Market Architecture
Wholesale markets (7500 APMC) Regulated auction
Rural Periodic Markets Unorganised retail
Market yards, sub-market yards
Informal retail, small lot sales
Farmers / Agents/ Intermediary
Mandatory to transact at regulated yard.
Each APMC market designated its zone, gets captive footfall.
Designed as a chain of transactions.
Market Density:
Old concept of a market every 80 square kms (5 km radius) based on assembling people.
Market density to be based on travel time, distanced about one to two hours form farms.
Market platforms ]not only for local exchange but also as facilitator to connect and transact at locations farther afield.
APLM Model Act, 2017 also allows any existing warehouse or cold store to function as markets.

11. Gramin Agri-Market centres
GrAMs as the first stage for an organised Hub & Spoke System
See Vol-III and IV of the Report of the Committee on Doubling Farmers’ Income

12. Storage Infrastructure - Dry
Assessed capacity needed – 196 mil. tonnes (by 2022).
Existing capacity 185 mil. tonnes (public + private).
More focus to upgrade for warehouse compliance and not creation.
New capacity based on District Storage Plan only.
Availability of godowns & warehouses

13. Cold-chain Infrastructure
Incomplete solution: all previous efforts were focused on cold storage requirement.
The other components necessary for handling fruits and vegetables were not considered – such as Modern Pack-houses and transport requirements for fresh produce.
As a result, major Infrastructure created in form of refrigerated Storage, which did not bring impetus to better post-harvest handling of fresh produce, but helped develop marketing of certain processed foods and fresh imports coming in cold-chain.

14. Cold-chain Infrastructure
Majority of infrastructure is in form of bulk cold stores. High 75% capacity utilisation as per baseline survey.
Produce from one state can find storage capacity in neighbouring states, provided back-end source is developed.
The gap is large in case of pre-cooling at pack-houses, transport connectivity and ripening chambers.
Critical to align throughput capacity of components to improve capital use efficiency.

15. Shifting the Production Income Curves Area and Value Pyramid
Source: DFI Committee Report
Crop geometry important for farmers to capture more value from available area. Release the surplus land under cereals.
Diversify and align production system to take advantage of demand. Market intelligence and linkages to reduce wasteful output.

16. Shift in Demand
Source: ICAR – Vision 2030
Demand for horticulture, dairy, livestock & fish is increasing faster than for foodgrains.
Further, demand for fresh produce is growing faster than expected.

17. Implications: Consumption shifts
↑ 27%
↑ 35%

18. Implications: Consumption shifts
↑ 1112%
↓ 39%
↑ 804%
↓ 18%
↑ 66%
↑ 122%
↑ 48%
↑ 273%

19. Empower & Organise the First Mile
When enhancing farm production, expand marketing range of farmers.

20. Intelligent Agri-Marketing “Fork-to-Farm approach”

21. Agri-Logistics - vital bridge to productivity
Logistics connects value, links supply with demand, extends market reach and makes farming sustainable.
Logistics is inherently about inventory in motion, to deliver more over longer distances, for improved monetisation.
Logistics adds to socio-economic growth by empowering and has a multiplier effect on farmers’ incomes.
Logistics safeguards value, dampens demand-supply fluctuations; inherently the back-bone for agricultures’ future.
102,000 crores or USD 15 billion
3.047 million jobs in India
Multi-fold gain in productivity

22. The mandate of Agriculture is to generate both food and raw material, to meet the requirement of modern society for feed, fibre, fuel and other industrial uses, and in a manner that is sustainable and with aim to bring economic growth to farmers.
Thank You