1. John McCain Union Research
Michael Podhorzer
April 26, 2008

2. AFL-CIO McCain Research
Columbus, Dayton focus groups
Sandwich test (4,000 interviews)
Large scale survey – Battleground states
4,500 Active (Including 1660 “swing”)
726 Retired
791 Householders
880 Working America
10,000+ total interviews
Polling Consortium
AFL-CIO

3. Trial Heats
AFL-CIO

4. Trial Heats over time - Active Union Members Battleground states
AFL-CIO
Sources: Hart, Lake 2000, 2004, 2006, 2008

5. How We Test Exclude Strong Partisans Develop Three Approaches
Randomly Select 4 Groups of 20,000
One Group is Control; Receives No Treatment
Survey 1,000 People in Each Group
Compare the Results
Find the Subgroups that Move the Most and the Least
Roll Out the Mailing to Everyone in Those Subgroups
AFL-CIO

6. Procedure Tested Messages
Ohio Sandwich Test
Procedure
Tested Messages
1. Robo Call 2.
3. Robo Call
AFL-CIO

7. Member Featured in Veterans’ Piece
AFL-CIO

8. Impact of Veterans’ Piece
D+31
D+22
Generic or named Congressional?
AFL-CIO
Source: Hart Research, April 2008

9. Vietnam Vet McCain v. President McCain
AFL-CIO
Source: Hart Research, April 2008

10. Vietnam Vet McCain v. President McCain
AFL-CIO
Source: Hart Research, April 2008

11. Vietnam Vet McCain v. President McCain
AFL-CIO
Source: Hart Research, April 2008

12. Strongest Arguments Swing Voters - Elements
Rising prices (gas, food, health care costs)
Business as usual (26 years in DC)
Lobbyist connection
Special interest connection
Out of touch
We need help now
AFL-CIO

13. Weakest Arguments Swing Voters
Bush economics
Failed policies of the past
100 years in Iraq
“Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran”
AFL-CIO

14. Strongest Arguments Base Voters
Bush economics
Failed policies of the past
100 years in Iraq
“Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran”
AFL-CIO

15. We Must Define McCain for Working Americans

16. Labor 2008 12.3 million AFL-CIO voters in battleground states
Active
4.3 Million
Retired
1.2 Million
Household
2.9 Million
Working America
3.9 Million
12.3 Million
AFL-CIO
Source: AFL-CIO

17. Events Worksites Mail Phone E-mail Website How We Defeat McCain
AFL-CIO

18. Plan of Attack Member-to-member phone banks Rapid Action events
Worksite leaflets
Microtargeting
“Sandwich” mailings to “swing” voters
Nationwide walks May 17
AFL-CIO

19. John McCain: Nowhere to Hide Rapid Action
AFL-CIO

20. The McCain Revealed Campaign www.mccainrevealed.com
AFL-CIO

21. Source: CNN Exit Polls, November 2004
2004 Electoral Map
AFL-CIO
AFL-CIO
Source: CNN Exit Polls, November 2004

22. 2004 Electoral Map Without Union Members
Illinois and Oregon would turn red if union households were used
AFL-CIO
AFL-CIO
Source: CNN Exit Polls, November 2004