1. February 2010 CPI Fan Chart 1
The Bank’s fan charts express the uncertainty about the future
Forecast is conditional on the assumed policy path. In this case market interest rates

2. February 2010 CPI Fan Chart 2
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107. February 2010 CPI Fan Chart 5
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108. Distributional Cross Sections6
Inflation in 2013Q1: February 2010 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Cross-sections better highlight the balance of risks

109. Other Approaches: The ECB7
Average annual percentage change
2009
2010
2011
HICP Inflation
0.3
Ranges are twice the mean absolute projection error (excluding outliers)
Sources: “New procedure for constructing eurosystem and ECB staff projection ranges” December 2009
“Eurosystem staff Macroeconomic Projections for the Euro Area” February 2010

110. Other Approaches: The Federal Reserve8
Full ranges from 17 individual forecasts from Fed presidents and governors
“Central Tendency” excludes three highest and three lowest forecasts
Source: “Monetary Policy Report to the Congress” February 2010

111. Other Approaches: The Riksbank9
Source: “Monetary Policy Report ” February 2010

112. Early Inflation Fan Charts10
November 1995 Trumpet
February 1996 Fan

113. February 2010 GDP Fan Chart 11
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£ billions

339. Distributional Cross Sections: 2012Q415 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
February Inflation Report
November Inflation Report
Probability

340. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

341. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

342. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

343. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

344. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

345. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

346. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

347. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

348. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

349. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

350. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

351. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

352. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

353. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

354. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

355. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

356. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

357. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

358. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

359. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

360. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

361. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

362. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

363. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

364. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

365. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

366. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

367. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

368. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

369. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

370. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

371. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

372. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

373. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

374. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

375. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

376. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

377. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

378. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

379. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

380. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

381. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

382. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

383. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

384. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

385. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

386. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

387. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

388. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

389. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

390. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

391. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

392. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

393. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

394. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

395. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

396. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

397. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

398. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

399. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

400. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

401. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

402. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

403. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

404. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

405. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

406. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

407. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

408. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

409. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

410. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

411. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

412. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

413. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

414. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

415. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

416. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

417. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

418. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

419. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

420. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

421. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

422. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

423. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

424. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

425. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

426. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

427. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

428. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

429. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

430. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

431. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

432. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

433. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

434. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

435. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

436. Assessed probability inflation will be above target16
Probability

437. Assessed probability inflation will be above target17
Probability

438. Assessed probability inflation will be above target18
Probability

439. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

440. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

441. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

442. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

443. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

444. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

445. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

446. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

447. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

448. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

449. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

450. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

451. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

452. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

453. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

454. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

455. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

456. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

457. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

458. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

459. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

460. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

461. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

462. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

463. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

464. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

465. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

466. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

467. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

468. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

469. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

470. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

471. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

472. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

473. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

474. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

475. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

476. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

477. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

478. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

479. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

480. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

481. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

482. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

483. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

484. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

485. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

486. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

487. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

488. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

489. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

490. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

491. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

492. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

493. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

494. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

495. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

496. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

497. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

498. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

499. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

500. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

501. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

502. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

503. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

504. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

505. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

506. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

507. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

508. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

509. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

510. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

511. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

512. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

513. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

514. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

515. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

516. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

517. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

518. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

519. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

520. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

521. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

522. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

523. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

524. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

525. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

526. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

527. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

528. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

529. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

530. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

531. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

532. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

533. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

534. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

535. Assessed probability inflation will be above target

536. Assessed probability inflation will be above target19
Probability

537. Three Dimensional Fan Chart20