1. A 1-year simulation of atmospheric concentrations and deposition over Europe and UK
Alan Cocks, Vicky Lucas, Ian Rodgers, and Ian Teasdale RWEInnogy Environment

2. Air Quality in Europe and UK
UNECE Gothenburg Protocol
Emission ceilings on SO2, NOx, VOC, and NH3
EU Air Quality Framework directive
NECD
LCPD
New model required for new issues….
….to open up a wider debate
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3. Why did we choose Models3
Modular and future-proofed
Covers a range of spatial and temporal scales
Flexible
Complete
Available
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4. Development strategy Choose a suitable domain
Build the key inputs (emissions, meteorology)
Build and test the model (hard wired features !)
Develop a methodology and tools
Validate the ‘vanilla’ model for one month
A key hurdle is the simulation of air quality and wet deposition statistics for a full year - was it feasible ?
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5. Development strategy 2
Achieved through a joint JEP/EA project - the subject of this presentation
Currently looking at ozone and secondary particulates
Investigated aggregation schemes
Stakeholder workshop in April 2003
Results are being made available
Achieved by a small team and minimal effort
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6. Location of monitoring sites used
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7. Data availability at each monitoring site
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8. MODELS-3: grids
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9. Practical Matters CMAQ: April 2001 (version 4.1) without front end
SMOKE v1.4b (MEPPS couldn’t be used)
Hardware: 2* Sun SPARC II Dual Processor (400MHz)
Sun Solaris OS5 and f90 compiler
Options:
PPM for advection; QSSA for chemistry,
RADM2_AQ_AE; no PING; AERO1
Run times: around 158 hrs CPU for 1 month simulation
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10. Meteorological Data Processing
Used external data from UKMO rather than MM5
Analysis fields from NWP
Archive of initial (T+0) fields from forecast runs
Have observed data assimilated
Best estimate of historical 3D weather data
Met Office format
Latitude/Longitude horizontal grid
Eta levels in the vertical
Had to be re-gridded
3 hour time steps, linearly interpolated to 1 hour for CMAQ
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11. Met Office Mesoscale model domain
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12. Sources of meteorological data
Global meteorological data
Grid length approximately 60km at mid-latitudes
Global coverage
For this study Europe 30W to 45E, 29N to 69N
Used for the 108km CMAQ runs
Mesoscale meteorological data
Grid length approximately 12km
Covers UK and France
Used for the 36, 12 and 4km CMAQ runs
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13. Emission modelling Aim to take the data from readily available source
24 species for RADM2_AE_AQ
EMEP database: 50km x 50km by sector
NOx, SO2, CO, NH3, NMVOC, particulates
used for 108 km grid
GEIA database
natural emissions: isoprenes, terpenes, volcanic
NAEI database: 1km x 1km for UK by source type
UK Power station data
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14. Verification test: Sulphate deposition
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15. AQ time series a b c Bottesford: daily a) SO2 b) NO2c)PM10
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16. Model – measurement comparison for AQ
1.68
0.44
0.36
0.33
Yarner Wood
0.85
1.85
0.75
Wicken Fen
1.00
1.55
1.73
0.46
0.76
0.21
Rochester
0.54
1.40
1.25
0.34
0.28
-0.15
Redcar
0.64
1.15
0.51
0.42
0.68
0.65
Narbeth
4.09
1.49
2.05
-0.47
0.47
Lullington Heath
1.61
1.16
0.67
Lady Bower
1.93
-0.40
High Muffles
1.37
2.40
Harwell
3.14
2.29
-0.58
Eskdalemuir
0.84
1.18
1.13
0.56
0.69
Bottesford
NH3
PM10
NO2
SO2
Mean Annual Modelled/Measured
Correlation
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17. Air Quality: Hourly NO2
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18. Air Quality: SO2 Annual Averages
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19. Air Quality: NO2 Annual Averages
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20. Wet Deposition Weekly totals
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21. Model – measurement comparison for wet deposition.
1.84
1.13
0.85
1.10
0.62
0.72
0.61
0.78
Yarner Wood
1.76
1.12
0.63
1.15
0.31
0.57
Tycanol Wood
0.91
0.93
0.80
0.74
0.73
Preston
0.68
0.95
0.71
0.70
0.87
High Muffles
1.04
0.92
0.75
1.25
0.19
0.59
Flatford Mill
2.11
1.55
1.06
0.98
0.51
0.50
0.58
0.83
Eskdalemuir
0.81
0.65
1.07
0.82
Compton
1.11
1.05
1.41
Bottesford
-0.01
0.14
0.44
Bannisdale
1.64
1.03
0.69
0.47
0.39
Barcombe Mills
NH4+
NO3-
SO42-
Rainfall
Mean Annual Modelled/Measured
Correlation
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22. Annual comparison: precipitation
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23. Annual comparison: wet deposition of S
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24. Annual comparison: wet deposition of oxidised N
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25. Annual comparison: wet deposition of reduced N
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26. Spatial distribution : Deposition of oxidised Sulphur
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27. Budgets
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28. Comparison with EMEP results
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29. Comparison of measured and modelled Ozone and associated species
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30. Summary of conclusions from study
Successful annual simulation carried out using freely available UK data
Ratio of modelled to measured for Annual wet deposition is 0.7 (sulphate), 1.0 (nitrate) and 1.2 (ammonium). Acceptable correlation for sulphate and nitrate.
For air quality the modelled/measured ratio is 1.3 for SO2, 1.4 for NO2, and 0.8 for particulate. Time series correlation is 0.72 for NO2
Models-3 performance compares favourably with the EMEP Lagrangian model.
Total wet deposition maps are in fair agreement with interpolated measurements.
Some usability issues
Some modelling issues to resolve
Models-3 is a suitable model for use as a high-resolution long-range transport model for the UK and Europe.
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