1. Results of the 2007Business Trends Survey
Presentation by:
Dick Davidson (Thombert)
Business Trends 2007 Task Force
Committee members include:
Aurelio Carinci (Exide)
Ed Dailey (GSP)
Dirk von Holt (Superior Signals Inc)
Urs Nager (Anderson Power Products)
ITA Fall Meeting
The Fairmont Banff Springs
Banff, Canada September 2007

2. Markets and Models: China Markets and Models: Canada
Procurement Practices
Future Technologies and/or
Design Changes
ITA Related

3. Markets and Models: China

4. 2004 2005 2006 2007 A. Exporting US produced products to China
1) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to China as a potential market in the following ways? (2006 Qn 1)
A. Exporting US produced products to China 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA
High
Low
2004
2005
2006
2007
18 responses

5. 1) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to China as a potential market in the following ways? (2006 Qn 1)
B. Partnering with Chinese forklift mfg to produce trucks in China 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA
High
Low
2004
2005
2006
2007
17 responses

6. 2004 2005 2006 2007 C. Seeking parts suppliers in China
1) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to China as a potential market in the following ways? (2006 Qn 1) 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA
High
C. Seeking parts suppliers in China
Low
2004
2005
2006
2007
19 responses

7. 2005 2006 2007 D. Building trucks in China for the Chinese market
1) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to China as a potential market in the following ways? (2006 Qn 1) 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA
High
D. Building trucks in China for the Chinese market
Low
2005
2006
2007
19 responses

8. Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 HPT’s Class 4 Class 5
2) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant impact, what will be the impact of Chinese-produced lift trucks on the North American market over the next 5 years? (2006 Qn 2)
Class 1
Class 2
Class 3
18 responses
18 responses
18 responses
HPT’s
Class 4
Class 5
18 responses
18 responses
19 responses

9. Markets and Models: Canada

10. 3) What is the likelihood that the recently enacted Canadian regulation requiring technician training will result in the availability of information on proprietary diagnostic systems (that are currently available only to authorized dealers) to anyone involved in repair? (2006 Qn19)
17 responses

11. Procurement Practices

12. What percent of your components and subassemblies are you buying?
4) With regard to procurement practices and outsourcing, please state the percentage of your business, currently and in five years, which can be characterized in the following ways. (2006 Qn 3)
What percent of your components and subassemblies are you buying?
2007: 52% 2012: 63%
B. What percent of those purchased components and subassemblies are used in other subassemblies (vs. being directly assembled on the truck)?
2007: 33% 2012: 36%
14 responses

13. With regard to procurement practices and outsourcing, please state the percentage of your business, currently and in five years, which can be characterized in the following ways.
2006 RESPONSES
What percent of your components are you buying and assembling yourself?
2006: 50% 2011: 47%
B. What percent of complete subassembly units are you buying from suppliers?
2006: 34% 2011: 37%
What percent of your components and subassemblies are you manufacturing?
2006: 35% 2011: 37%

14. 27 issues identified by 19 responses
5) In addition to cost and quality, please circle the top three considerations that you feel will most impact the sourcing of products in the next five years.
Supplier Controlled Issues:
# 1: Ability to demonstrate capacity, flexibility and grow with us (26%)
# 2: Engineering Support (19%)
Issues Outside the Suppliers’ Control:
# 3: Exchange rate/Strength of the US Dollar (21%)
# 4: Availability/Quantity of available components/Global presence for
key products, components, assemblies (13%) :
# 5: Economic conditions (11%)
# 6: Transportation/delivery (6%)
# 7: China/Relationship between U.S. and China/China and India
manufacturing (2%)
# 8: Globalization of companies (2%)
# 9: Other
27 issues identified by 19 responses

15. 17 responses in each category
6) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being very important, how important is a supplier’s capability to provide the following:
17 responses in each category

16. 17 responses in each category
6) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being very important, how important is a supplier’s capability to provide the following:
17 responses in each category

17. 6) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being very important, how important is a supplier’s capability to provide the following:
16 responses
17 responses

18. 18 responses in each category
6) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being very important, how important is a supplier’s capability to provide the following:
18 responses in each category

19. 7) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that your company and your major customers will increase the use of reverse internet auctions for sourcing? (2006 Qn 5)
18 responses

20. 8) Will your supplier base substantially increase, substantially decrease, or stay approximately the same over the next five years? (2006 Qn 6)
19 responses

21. Future Technologies
and/or Design Changes

22. 9) A. Do you believe that fuel cells will be a significant share of the market? If so, when?
(2006 Qn 17)
18 responses

23. 9) B. On a sale of 1 to 10, with 10 being very likely, what is the likelihood that fuel cell powered trucks will be available by 2012 in: 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º Class 1 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º Class 2 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º Class 3
High
High
High
7.7
7.1 7
Low
Low
Low
18 responses
18 responses
18 responses

24. 9) C. On a sale of 1 to 10, with 10 being very likely, what is the likelihood that hybrid trucks will be in use by 2012? 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º Class 4 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º Class 5
High
High 6
5.4
Low
Low
18 responses
18 responses

25. 10) What is the likelihood that international standard will be developed for fast charging by 2012? (2006 Qn 13)
18 responses

26. 11) What percent of the market will be garnered by opportunity charging by 2012? (2006 Qn 14)
17 responses

27. last year’s survey 17% for 2007 25% for 2010 (12 responses)
12) With regard to batteries and chargers, what percentage of trucks will use fast charging by 2012? (2006 Qn 12)
last year’s survey % for % for (12 responses)
17 responses

28. 13) Will international standards be developed regarding fast charging in the following areas by 2011 (2006 Qn 12)
17 responses

29. 14) For engine powered forklifts, do you see an increase or decrease in the use of the following fuels? (2006 Qn 21)
Diesel
Gasoline
2006
2007
CNG
LPG
18 responses

30. 15) What do you believe the trend will be regarding the use of each of the following electric motor technologies between 2007 and 2012? (2006 Qn 22) AC
Brushless DC
2004
2005
2006
2007
Separately Excited
Series

31. 16) With regard to electro-hydraulic controls for IC and battery 4-wheel trucks, what percentage of each do you anticipate will be using electro-hydraulic controls in 2007 and 2012? (2006 Qn 11)
IC trucks
Battery 4-wheel trucks
17 responses
17 responses

32. A. Use of fork positioners
17) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being most likely, how would you rate the likelihood of future technology changes within specific product areas for new vehicles now and (2006 Qn 9)
A. Use of fork positioners
With “hang on” fork positioners
With “integral” fork positioners 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA
High
High
High
High
Low
Low
Low
Low
2006
2007
2006
2007
18 responses
18 responses

33. B. Sideshifting and positioning together
17) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being most likely, how would you rate the likelihood of future technology changes within specific product areas for new vehicles now and (2006 Qn 9)
B. Sideshifting and positioning together
With “hang on”
With “integral” 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA
High
High
High
High
Low
Low
Low
Low
2006
2007
2006
2007
18 responses
18 responses

34. C. Use of these technologies in high volume trucks
17) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being most likely, how would you rate the likelihood of future technology changes within specific product areas for new vehicles now and (2006 Qn 9)
C. Use of these technologies in high volume trucks
As “hang on” products
As “integral” products 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º ITA
High
High
High
High
Low
Low
Low
Low
2006
2007
2006
2007
18 responses
18 responses

35. 18) What percentage increase in the use of “integral” versus “hang on” side shifters do you predict for the North American market by 2012? (2006 Qn 8)
vs.
18 responses

36. 19) What percentage of trucks will use single valve technology to control multiple functions in 2007 and 2012? (2006 Qn 10)
15 responses

37. ITA Related

38. º In ITA Spring & Fall Meetings? º In Canada Committee activities?
20) On a sale of 1 to 10, with 10 being extremely important, how important is participation by Associate Members: 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º In ITA Spring & Fall Meetings? 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º In Canada Committee activities?
High
High 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10
º In GEC Activities?
7.8
High
5.9
Low
7.4
Low
Low
17 responses

39. Chief Marketing Manager: 13
21) Please indicate if the following individuals in your company were consulted in answering these questions (check as many as were contacted):
Chief Marketing Manager: 13
Chief Technical Officer: 9
Other: 11

40. Results of the 2007Business Trends Survey
Presentation by:
Dick Davidson (Thombert)
Business Trends 2007 Task Force
Committee members include:
Aurelio Carinci (Exide)
Ed Dailey (GSP)
Dirk von Holt (Superior Signals Inc)
Urs Nager (Anderson Power Products)
ITA Fall Meeting
The Fairmont Banff Springs
Banff, Canada September 2007