1. Economic modelling to support fisheries management
Griffin Carpenter, New Economics Foundation

2. The need for bioeconomic modelling
Bioeconomic modelling combines biological and economic aspects of a fishery to explain stock, catch and effort dynamics
One of the main tools used to provide economic advice
Goal: to provide insight on the optimal management of a resource
Can’t just focus on stocks, we need a fishery that maximizes benefits
Static or dynamic; forecasting or scenario analysis

3. Many successes Better data through DCF = better models
Excellent job by fisheries economists and researchers in contributing to relevant and timely policy discussions
Addressing the data delay
Forecasting models used in the Annual Economic Report
Illustrating potential
BEMEF used to forecast economic picture at MSY
Analysing Harvest Control Rules
Fishrent model used to match economics with stochastic age-structured populations dynamics to analyse HCRs for NS saithe

4. Many models
Bioeconomic models will always be a case of “horses for courses”
Will not have one model to rule them all but rather models built for research questions
ICES working group (WGIMM) currently documenting 25 different models
Growing collaboration in this space (Myfish, SOCIOEC, EAFE conferences)

5. Looking ahead Inputs to modelling can still be improved
Data collection (gaps in DCF, catch data)
Data dissemination (unavailable or difficult to use)
Single species  multispecies  ecosystem approach  societal approach
New data and “big data” are opening up opportunities
Transition to MSY has benefitted many objectives, but trade-offs between objectives emerge the closer we move to MSY

6. Modelling tasks in this new phase
Visualising, analysing and making decisions where there are trade-offs between multiple objectives
Linking policy  stock health and stock health  economic performance
A more transparent and active role for socioeconomics in management decisions like TAC setting
Bringing communities and people into economic analysis both figuratively (extended model scope) and literally (feedback, surveys, simplified tools)

7. Thank you Find out more www.fisheriesmodel.org