1. Transport and Recruitment of Larval Cod (Gadus Morhua) Within the Western Gulf of Maine? Co-PIs: Jeff Runge (U. Maine), Jim Manning (NOAA), Loretta O’Brien (NOAA)
With Thanks to:
C. Chen (SMAST), Geoff Cowles (SMAST), Dave Stuebe (SMAST), Hunt Howell (UNH), Adrienne Kovach (UNH), Martin Huret (Ifremer), -

3. 90 % of Cod Captured

4. Western Gulf of Maine Stock

5. Western Gulf of Maine Stock
Stay-at-home Stock

6. Western Gulf of Maine Stock
Stay-at-home Stock
Characterized as “Sedentary-Resident” by Howell et al. (2008)

7. Western Gulf of Maine Stock
Stay-at-home Stock
Characterized as “Sedentary-Resident” by Howell et al. (2008)
2. Spring spawners are genetically distinct from other regional cod stocks

8. Recruitment Success

9. Questions??

10. Questions??
What controls the variation in recruitment success?

11. Questions?? What controls the variation in recruitment success?
What maintains the western Gulf of Maine cod stock?

12. Questions??
What controls the variation in recruitment success?
What maintains the western Gulf of Maine cod stock?
Approach

13. Questions??
What controls the variation in recruitment success?
What maintains the western Gulf of Maine cod stock?
Approach
Model spawned egg and larval transport to settlement
capability

14. Questions??
What controls the variation in recruitment success?
What maintains the western Gulf of Maine cod stock?
Approach
Model spawned egg and larval transport to settlement
capability
Do simulations over 11 years ( ) and relate
variation in transport success to wind and large-scale cir.

15. Cod Spawning in the Western GoM
Has contracted considerably in the last 50 years
Now two principal spawning events: Ipswich Bay (Spring), and Ipswich and Mass Bays (winter)

16. From Howell et al (2008)

17. Percent of Ripe Cod in Area 133 (Ipswich Bay) [Howell et al., 2008]

21. Where do Cod Settle??

22. From Howe et al (2002)
MDMF Technical Report

23. What currents are cod larvae exposed to??

25. WMCC

26. Modeling Gulf of Maine currents

27. 32 Terrain-following sigma-layers in the vertical
Driven with tidal and atmospheric forcing and with riverine influx
Runs include assimilation of SST fields
Used Archive

29. Working Hypothesis: Recruitment success is significantly influenced by egg/larval transport from spawning areas

33. Transport Simulations

34. Transport Simulations
Release ensembles of particles distributed over the Ipswich Bay spawning area every 3-days

35. Transport Simulations
Release ensembles of particles distributed over the Ipswich Bay spawning area every 3-days
Track for 60-days in model flow field

36. Transport Simulations
Release ensembles of particles distributed over the Ipswich Bay spawning area every 3-days
Track for 60-days in model flow field
Transport success is percent of time particles are over depths <30 m in last 15 days of drift

37. Transport Simulations
Release ensembles of particles distributed over the Ipswich Bay spawning area every 3-days
Track for 60-days in model flow field
Transport success is percent of time particles are over depths <30 m in last 15 days of drift
Average transport success over all ensembles

50. 2008 Assessment

56. Summary

57. Summary
Coupling of wind-driven near-surface transport with the larger-scale GoM “Coastal Current” controls whether Ipswich-spawned cod eggs and larvae are retained in the western GoM or broadcast far a field (downwelling winds–retentive; upwelling winds broadcasting).

58. Summary
Coupling of wind-driven near-surface transport with the larger-scale GoM “Coastal Current” controls whether Ipswich-spawned cod eggs and larvae are retained in the western GoM or broadcast far a field (downwelling winds–retentive; upwelling winds broadcasting).
The fate of the larvae is largely cast by the wind-driven transport in the buoyant egg stage, with diel vertical migration marginally enhancing retention.

59. Summary
Coupling of wind-driven near-surface transport with the larger-scale GoM “Coastal Current” controls whether Ipswich-spawned cod eggs and larvae are retained in the western GoM or broadcast far a field (downwelling winds–retentive; upwelling winds broadcasting).
The fate of the larvae is largely cast by the wind-driven transport in the buoyant egg stage, with diel vertical migration marginally enhancing retention.
Recruitment success to the GoM cod stock may be largely tied to the retention of the May-spawned population

60. Summary
Coupling of wind-driven near-surface transport with the larger-scale GoM “Coastal Current” controls whether Ipswich-spawned cod eggs and larvae are retained in the western GoM or broadcast far a field (downwelling winds–retentive; upwelling winds broadcasting).
The fate of the larvae is largely cast by the wind-driven transport in the buoyant egg stage, with diel vertical migration marginally enhancing retention.
Recruitment success to the GoM cod stock may be largely tied to the retention of the May-spawned population
The mean alongshore wind of May is a viable index of strong age-1 recruitment to the GoM cod population.

61. Publications/Presentations/Webpages:
Churchill, J.H. and J. Runge (2009) What Maintains the Western Gulf of Maine Cod Stock? Proceedings of a workshop on Exploring Fine-scale Ecology for Groundfish in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank, 2-3 April 2009, York, Maine, 8 pp.
Churchill, J.H. J. Runge and C. Chen, Processes controlling retention of spring-spawned Atlantic cod in the western Gulf of Maine and their relationship to an index of recruitment success. submitted to Fisheries Oceanography.
Presentations:
Churchill, J.H and J.A. Runge, What Maintains the Western Gulf of Maine Cod Stock? Workshop on Exploring Fine-scale Ecology for Groundfish in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank, York, Maine, 2-3 April 2009.
Churchill, J.H., Modeling larval cod transport and recruitment. Coastal Ocean Fluid Dynamics Laboratory seminar, 22 May 2009.
Runge, J.A., A. Kovach, R. Jones, S. Tallack, J. Churchill, C. Chen, G. Sherwood, H. Howell, J. Grabowski and D. Berlinsky,  Understanding climate impacts on the spatial dynamics of Atlantic cod in coastal waters of the Gulf of Maine. ICES Cod and Climate Workshop at the GLOBEC Open Sciences Meeting, Victoria,  BC, June 2009
Webpage:

62. Western Gulf of Maine Stock
Stay-at-home Stock
Characterized as “Sedentary-Resident” by Howell et al. (2008)
2. Spring spawners are genetically distinct from other regional cod stocks

63. Western Gulf of Maine Stock
Stay-at-home Stock
Characterized as “Sedentary-Resident” by Howell et al. (2008)
2. Spring spawners are genetically distinct from other regional cod stocks
[Focus of proposal to NSF submitted in Aug. 09]

64. Future Work – with FATE funding

65. Future Work – with FATE funding
Science Goals

66. Future Work – with FATE funding
Science Goals
Technical Goals

67. Science Goals .

68. Science Goals
Near real-time modeling of larval transport to “predict” recruitment success conditions for current year .

69. Science Goals
Near real-time modeling of larval transport to “predict” recruitment success conditions for current year
Do simulations with source areas distributed per IBS distribution and examine relative transport success for the various source locations – Is Whaleback positioned in the source area of maximum transport success? .

70. Technical Goals .

71. Gulf of Maine Model Interoperability Pilot Project
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72. Models currently served through THREDDS:
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Models currently served through
THREDDS:
GoMOOS POM Gulf of Maine Model (Xue)
NCSU ROMS Gulf of Maine Model (He)
UMASSD FVCOM GoM/GB Model (limited, Chen)

73. Technical Goals .

74. Technical Goals
Construct a larval tracking IBM which utilizes the model data served by THREDDS (Churchill, Manning and Signell) .

75. Technical Goals
Construct a larval tracking IBM which utilizes the model data served by THREDDS (Churchill, Manning and Signell)
MATLAB-based .

76. Technical Goals
Construct a larval tracking IBM which utilizes the model data served by THREDDS (Churchill, Manning and Signell)
MATLAB-based
User friendly .

77. Technical Goals
Construct a larval tracking IBM which utilizes the model data served by THREDDS (Churchill, Manning and Signell)
MATLAB-based
User friendly
Community model (served by the GoMODP and my website) .

78. Technical Goals
Construct a larval tracking IBM which utilizes the model data served by THREDDS (Churchill, Manning and Signell)
MATLAB-based
User friendly
Community model (served by the GoMODP and my website)
Teaching tool .