1. East Dunbartonshire December 2016
Skills Assessments
East Dunbartonshire
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for East Dunbartonshire
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland (SDS), Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development (SLAED) Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, regional colleges, strategic bodies and college boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for academic years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of seven workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slide pack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
Overall, East Dunbartonshire has positive levels of economic activity and employment rates
However, it is dependent to a large extent on the wider regional economy and the public sector as a source of employment
Pockets of deprivation exist and there are also barriers for some young people entering the labour market
The long term reduction of the working age population raises potential issues for sustained growth

9. Business Trends
Growth of the business base in 2015 was slightly above Scottish rate (8.1% v. 7.3%)
210 new businesses including: Professional, Scientific and Technical (+50); Business Administration and Support Services (+50); Arts, Entertainment and Recreation (+30)
99% businesses are small or micro (<50 employees)
Relatively low business density of 263 (per 10,000 population) (Scotland 313)
Self-employment dropped to 10.8% from high of 14.3% in 2009 (Scotland also 10.8%)
In 2015, the percentage of businesses in Growth Sectors close to Scottish average
Concentrations of Growth Sector businesses in Financial and Business Services (45%) and Creative Industries (30%)
22% of employment in Growth Sectors in 2014

10. Population and Projections
Total population of 106,960 (2% of Scotland) in 2015
Population change :
Those aged 65+ increasing as share of total population at a rate higher than Scottish average (25% increase v. 18%)
Accompanied by a 25% drop in number of year olds
Forecast Population Growth :
Total population set to decline by 7,134 (-7%), in contrast to growth across Scotland
Working age population set to decline by a quarter during this period

11. Workforce Trends
Total employment in E. Dunbartonshire = 25,900 (1% of Scottish total)
3% increase over , matching national figure (3%)
In 2015, 61% worked in higher level occupations, well above Scottish average of 42%
78% of employed population work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally
29% of employees work part-time, a slight fall from 25% since 2014 and below national average (26%)
3.8% of people in employment are in non-permanent jobs, in 2015 lower than the national figure (5.4%)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate in East Dunbartonshire was 75% in 2015, a 2ppt increase from the previous year lifting it above the national rate of 73%
24.6% of employed residents work in home local authority
53% working in rest of Glasgow RSA (9% in rest of Lanarkshire RSA)
Out-commuting to Glasgow City dominates (52.2%)
In 2015, the unemployment rate in East Dunbartonshire was below the national average (4% v. 6%), unemployment fell by -0.6ppts which was greater than the national decline (-0.4ppts) from 2014
96% of year olds in E. Dunbartonshire are participating in 2016, and 2% are not (4% nationally)

13. Qualifications and Earnings
In 2015, a higher proportion of working age adults in East Dunbartonshire (54%) held SCQF qualifications at levels 7-12 than in Scotland (43%)
East Dunbartonshire’s resident and workplace earnings differ significantly - linked to a relatively weak local business base

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 7, % of Scotland total
95% school leavers had a positive destination in 2015, compared to 92% nationally
MA uptake decreased by 8% from 2014/15 to 370
1% of national total in 2015/16
Construction is the most popular MA framework group
25% of uptake
Heavily gender segregated - 99% male
79% achievement rate 2015/16

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, there were 64,630 enrolments at Glasgow City College, Glasgow Clyde College and Glasgow Kelvin College
23% of Scotland’s total
75% FE and 25% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Business, management & admin, Art & Design and Care
Part-time: Computing & ICT, Languages & ESOL and Special Programmes
67% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 69,000 students at the five HEIs in the region in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Business & Admin, Subjects Allied to Medicine and Engineering
HE/FE data is available at regional level only. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire and Glasgow, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to increase by 0.2% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, the same as the equivalent rate for Scotland as a whole. Such growth equates to 600 additional jobs in the region by Construction and professional, scientific and technical activities are expected to have growth of 200 jobs each over the forecast period. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the public, manufacturing and education sectors. The number of jobs in manufacturing is expected to fall by 200 over the forecast, whilst those in public administration & defence and education will fall by 100 jobs each.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
East Dunbartonshire Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 17,000 openings within East Dunbartonshire from 2016 to Expansion demand is expected to grow by 300 openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 17,300 openings up to Openings will be highest in professional occupations, driven mainly by replacement demand. The total requirement for workers in administrative and secretarial and caring, leisure and other service occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period, again driven largely by replacement demand.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. East Dunbartonshire: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
There has been year on year jobs growth in East Dunbartonshire since There were 600 more jobs in 2015, a further 2%, so that there are now 10% more local jobs than in 2009, outpacing Scotland growth of 1% over the same period.
There were sector shifts in The greatest increases were in public administration & defence (+500), accommodation & food services (+300), retail (+200) and education (+200). There were also modest increases in arts, entertainment & related, a sector proportionately well represented. At the same time, there were job reductions in health (-500) and information & communications (-200). Proportionally more local jobs are in public sector services – a sector forecast to contract – and in lower added value services. There remains a challenge to increase the number of higher value added jobs.
The business base in East Dunbartonshire has shown strong and above average growth recently, including in business and professional services, although business density remains below the Scotland average. Output has increased modestly since the recession, although output per worker remained below average, a reflection of the lower value added local sector mix. Further growing small businesses is one route to employment growth.
Glasgow

20. East Dunbartonshire : Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
There has been recent population growth although the number remains similar to that of 10 years ago at a time of growth across Scotland as a whole. Forecasts indicate the population will fall 7% by 2037, at a time of continued national growth, including a loss in the working age population of 25%.
Almost a third work in professional occupations, more than six in ten are in higher level roles. Many access these jobs in Glasgow. Administrative occupations are also higher than the Scotland average, where there is expected to be strong replacement demand locally. In all, almost 17,000 replacement demand openings are expected to 2024, most will be in care & leisure, sales, professional and elementary occupations. Meeting local employer demand for these occupations will be challenging given that many have aspirations of accessing higher skilled jobs.
Almost six in ten go into Higher Education from school, well above the Scotland average..
The top MA frameworks largely reflect the local economy – construction, health and social care (with sport), hospitality & tourism and retail & customer service.
Glasgow

21. East Dunbartonshire : Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for East Dunbartonshire include:
Meeting the skills needs of employers. There are important local sectors and occupations, including administration, sales and customer services. There will be strong replacement demand in these plus care and elementary. Local skills activity, should continue to be focused on employer demand.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills.
Continuing to grow the number of local jobs. Recent job growth has been good, with growth in a number of sectors.
Increasing the quality of jobs. There remains reliance on public service jobs which are forecast to decline and growing local higher value added services is important.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations, also care and sales. Progression needs engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow