1. Major challenges in the food system impacting ACP countries
Hans R Herren
President Millennium Institute
Co-Chair IAASTD
Geopolitics of Food:
implications for ACP countries Wednesday 2nd February 2011
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Brussels Policy Briefing n° 21

2. The IAASTD IAASTD Development and Sustainability Goals (=MDG)
The 4 main areas where agriculture needs to transition:
• Eradicating of Hunger and Poverty
• Improving Rural Livelihoods
• Improving Nutrition and Human Health
• Facilitating Environmentally, Socially, Equitable and Economically Sustainable Development
…under the Challenges of:
• Climate Change
• Population and Demand Growth
• Shrinking Natural Resources / Energy
….to which agriculture itself is contributing negatively
Realizing these goals requires acknowledging the multifunctionality of agriculture: the challenge is
to simultaneously meet development and sustainability goals while increasing agricultural
production
IAASTD….more

3. Why a new paradigm? (social/economic)
Human condition need for quality and quantity of nutrition not met and increasing
One billion hungry & one billion obese
1.5 billion jobless people
Humanity will grow to nearly 9 billion by 2050
Rising affluence brings diet demands for more meat, dairy & fish
Greatest population growth in the tropics where CC impact is expected to be worst, environment difficult or at limit
Today’s total food production sufficient for 9 billion people, but:
Wrong place
Access issues (poverty – hunger nexus)
Post harvest losses >30%
Significant retail and home losses

4. Why a new paradigm? (environment)
Agriculture’s environmental impacts are substantial and are getting worse –Not sustainable
High external input conventional farming has high GHG emissions (14%)
Low input, traditional farming lower yields driving deforestation (18%)
Both farming systems lack adequate CC stress resilience &
both are inefficient in their natural resource use
Water pollution by fertilizer/pesticide runoff and soil erosion
In industrial ag, too many inputs
In developing countries deforestation and start of same trends re inputs as in the North

5. Why a new paradigm? Move from NR exploitation to management
Business as usual is not an option

6. Why a new paradigm? Provide for food security and sovereignty
2010 food risk map (Maplecroft)
The Food Security Risk Index 2010, Maplecroft, evaluates the risks to the supply of basic food staples for 163 countries. It uses 12 criteria developed in collaboration with the World Food Programme, to calculate the ranking including: the nutritional and health status of populations, cereal production and imports, GDP per capita, natural disasters, conflict, and the effectiveness of government.
Business as usual is not an option

7. Indebtedness Terms of trade Net farm income Production
Productivity
Production
crops
livestock
Indebtedness
Rural employment
Terms of trade
labor
farmers
Net farm income
Environmental degradation
Role in the economy
Trends are all pointing in the wrong direction, away from sustainability, multifunctionality and the social and cultural aspects of agriculture
TRENDS IN AUSTRALIAN
AGRICULTURE 1950s – 1970s
Source Richard Gawden 2010)

8. What new paradigm? Interconnectedness
Forest land
Natural crop yield per ha
Agriculture production
Soil
quality
Effective crop yield per ha
Population
Harvested area
Water stress
GDP
Chemical fertilizer
Organic fertilizer
Society
Agriculture
Economy
Environment
Agriculture capital
Energy demand
Fertilizer use
Water demand
R&D
Sustainable mgmt.
Crop losses
Oil price
Agriculture labor

9. What new paradigm? Multifunctionality

10. Transition to sustainable / organic / ecological / resilient / equitable agriculture
High productivity
Conventional system:
Best ngnt practices
Soil conservation practices
IPM
Reduction of chemical inputs
System in Transition to sustainability: substitution of external inputs with biological processes
Peasant low input: state support to reach “substitutions etc…
Indigenous traditional systems: state support to reach the substitutions….
Low productivity
Un-sustainable
Sustainable 10

11. How to transform / transition agriculture?
Invest in agricultural R&D in ACP countries (IPG) that benefit small farmers / women especially (participatory)
Soil sciences
Plant physiology and ecology
Plant health (Insect, diseases, etc / pre and post harvest)
Plant / animal breeding
Plant / animal diversity, orphan species
Agroforestry
Water management
Biotechnology (tissue culture, marker assisted breeding)
Farm mechanization
Aquaculture

12. Public / private agricultural R&D spending year 2000

13. Total Agricultural Output 1970-2004 (1974 = 100)13

14. Reducing Post Harvest Losses are as Important as Increasing Yields
How to transform / transition agriculture:
Reducing Post Harvest Losses are as Important as Increasing Yields
30% of harvested crops are lost to spoilage and pest damage and never reach consumers
Improving post harvest storage & handling capabilities for immediate benefits
Supporting appropriate value added food processing in rural areas also reduces losses and creates jobs
Parallel investment needed to improve market access infrastructures

16. How to transform / transition agriculture:
Ecological Agriculture provides the best prospects for sustainability –more of what works
Uses organic nutrient and N-fixing crop rotations to restore soil fertility (Microorganism mediated nutrient mobilization)
Organic matter & crop residue build soil carbon EA reduces use of fossil fuels & agrochemicals and GHG emissions
EA sequesters carbon (neutral / positive impact on CC)
EA improves yields by 70% vs traditional farming

17. Organic Conventional In 1995 –drought year
What new paradigm? Organic agriculture
Organic bananas in the Dominican Republic
Better infiltration, retention, and delivery to plants helps avoid drought damage
Organic
Conventional
In 1995 –drought year

18. What new paradigm? Push-Pull
Organic maize in Kenya

19. Appropriate scaled mechanization for small farmers and cooperatives
How to transform agriculture:
Appropriate scaled mechanization for small farmers and cooperatives
Financing for farmers to buy mechanized ag equipment to improve labor productivity
R&D for No Till equipment; and incentives for domestic marketing/tech support supply chain
Local production of biofuels & power to enable use of mechanized systems
LIC ag relies on manual/drought animal power

20. How to transform agriculture (Institution building)
EA is knowledge intensive: need for human and social capital development
Improve and expand extension services and farmer field schools to train and demonstrate EA practices and values
Introduce capacity building for cooperatives to enable locally owned and operated input and output firms
Increase higher education for implementation of EA
Agriculture is very localized = regional and local solutions

21. Improving small farmer access to local, urban and foreign markets
How to transform agriculture: (Trade and markets)
Improving small farmer access to local, urban and foreign markets
Improving food safety
quality control (compliance with organic, fare trade, Global Gap and other certification standards)
Essential policy Actions to stimulate transition to EA
Remove perverse subsidies (fossil fuels, commodity crops, power, etc…)
Account for externalities (reward positive externalities)
Introduce support for transition to EA
Allow countries to implement trade policies that protect local farmers

22. Agriculture in a Green Economy (UNEP Report –February 2011)
Investing between 0.1% and 0.16% of total GDP ($83-$141 Billion) / year (green economy report UNEP/Millennium Institute
There will be a need for major investments in research to fill the large gap in sustainable agriculture science and technology accumulated over the past fifty years, develop and implement new ways of education and information dissemination to farmers given that sustainable agriculture is knowledge intensive locally specific, credit and insurance schemes. In addition and not optional are investment in rural road networks, power and internet connections, education and health infrastructure as well agricultural product processing and marketing.Green agriculture is possible with appropriate investment say, on a global scale of 0.1 and 0.16 % of the total GDP (US $83 an 141 Billion/yes between 2011 and 2050 would allow for the transition to sustainable agriculture while at the same time producing in average 3350 Kcal/per person/day

23. Thank you for your attention
Dank für Aufmerksamkeit und Referat schliessen
E n d e der Präsentation!
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A Einstein
Thank you for your attention