1. After the Cold War, Part II

3. Russia’s resurgence
Happening in the context of US and Western setbacks and the shift of global power from West to East
Russia sits in the middle of this shift
And its position and behaviour are major factors affecting the global order

9. The economy*
GDP, PPP - $4 trln. (No.6 in the world)
World’s 10th biggest exporter
GDP per capita - $27,900
Real growth rate – 5.6% in 2008, -7.9% in 2009, 4,5% in 2010, 4.3% in 2011, 3.4% in 2012, 1.3% in 2013, 0.6% in 2014, -2.8% in 2015, -0.2%, 1.8% in 2017 (est.)
Public debt (2013 est.) – 11.8% of GDP
Unemployment rate – 5.5%

10. But the Russian system diverged from the liberal-democratic norms
Under Yeltsin, Russia became a capitalist country, but its state was in disarray, and its economy in deep depression
Under Putin, Russian capitalism was consolidated through rebuilding of state authority
Russia achieved relative stability and recovered the status of a Great Power
But the Russian system diverged from the liberal-democratic norms
Soft authoritarianism
Bureaucratic-oligarchic capitalism

11. Russia continues to need major changes
Troubles in the global economy have reduced Russia’s economic growth to zero (2014)
The Russian economy needs major modernization to compete successfully
The post-Soviet Russian state has many flaws and needs major reforms to help meet the challenges faced by Russia
The Russian society is deeply split by social inequality
Need to return to democratization

13. Social inequality, OECD data, Dec. 2011

14. The challenges
Modernization of the economy – from hydrocarbons to hi-tech
Rebuilding infrastructure
Social investments: health, education, other social programs to improve quality of life

15. Since Putin’s coming to power in 2000, Russia has been in a conservative phase
The new ruling class is determined to maintain its wealth and power
Decline of Russian liberalism, rise of new Russian nationalism
Formation of a soft authoritarian regime with elements of democracy
Resurgence of the Russian Orthodox Church as a major pillar of the Russian state

16. The bureaucracy is bigger, more powerful, more corrupt, and less accountable
Among the bureaucrats, security and military elites have gained commanding positions
Competition between them and other elites
Rule of law remains very weak

17. Levada Center opinion poll, November 2012:
57% - Russia needs reforms
20% - need for decisive change in the system of government
10% - ready to live under “existing stability”
19% - the rulers are doing enough to reform the state

21. Pew Research globapolls, March-May 2013 and Spri 2015

23. World’s 26th best country

24. Globescan poll of Russians, April 2009: http://surveys. globescan

25. The main features of Russian foreign policy
Primacy of national interests
Attempts to increase the degree of national sovereignty
A drive for re-integration of Eurasia
Multivector foreign policy – active engagement with other international actors
The Eastward drift
Primacy of trade and investment issues
Growing security concerns, major investments in military power
Limited use of force in crises (Georgia, Ukraine, Syria)
Readiness for international cooperation to work out joint solutions to problems

26. Russia’s military budget
Mid-1980s – defence spending accounted for 15-17% of Soviet GDP
Massive cuts following dissolution of USSR in 1991
Steady rise since 2000 – by 15-25% a year
: a new state armaments program
Price tag: 4.9 trillion rubles (US$186 billion).
63% allocated for the procurement of modern weapons and equipment
27% towards defence research and development
2016 – defence spending accounted for 5.4% of Russia’s GDP (CIA est.)

31. Russia’s place on the Global Firepower Index:

32. Russian elite interests
The oligarchy – the upper crust of the new capitalist class, product of the post-communist transformation
Most important sources of wealth: oil, gas and arms
Dependent on the West, primarily the US
Dependent on the Russian state, wants to rationalize it
Needs traditional foreign policy assets of the USSR
Assertive in the political sphere
Seeks economic opportunities worldwide
Intertwined with state bureaucracy

33. The bureaucrats
The “enforcers” (siloviki) – military and security elites
Determined to get upper hand over the oligarchs, get their property
Institutionally and traditionally suspicious of the West
Interested in a restoration of a stronger and more authoritarian Russian state, but on a capitalist basis
Federal civilian bureaucracy
Interested in whatever protects and increases their power
Regional bureaucracies, regional foreign policy interests

34. The national bourgeoisie
Well below the ranks of the oligarchy
Gets little from the West
Feels dominated by the oligarchs
Is nationalist and protectionist
The politicians
1990s: liberals, communists, nationalists, “United Russia” – the ruling party under Putin
The Westernizer-Eurasianist divide – and synthesis

35. “Which countries should Russia develop cooperation with in the first place?” Levada poll, Jan. 2013
USA 31 18
Germany, France, UK, other West European countries 49 48
Japan 27 22
India, China 30
Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, other CIS countries 53 46
Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, North Korea 11 10
Hard to say 16

36. “Which of these countries should Russia build good relations with for the long term?” Levada poll, Dec. 2014
May 2004
April 2008
April 2013
December 2014
China 9 12 21 47
CIS countries, such as Ukraine and Belarus 34 35 28
West European countries, such as France and Germany 25 20 8
USA 13 7 4
Moslem countries 1 2 3
Others
Hard to say 14 19 27