Uncontrolled copy when printed

Uncontrolled copy when printed
29/11/2018 Implementing National Security Through Technology – How to deliver capability in an uncertain world David Dean, Dstl Joint Systems Dept, UK I am the PTA for the Budgetary Resilience project (previously called acquisition policy) So what is the NSTT? The National Security Through Technology White paper was published in Feb 2013: Greater emphasis on use of S&T to reduce long-term costs and improve affordability of our programmes: 3 principles Value for Money – the Open Procurement principle Open competition Off the shelf Open Systems Technology Advantage Sovereignty Working with other countries Securing the Technology base The UK defence and Security Industry Defence Exports OFFICIAL 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

The Budgetary Resilience Project
Uncontrolled copy when printed The Budgetary Resilience Project 29/11/2018 Issue based requirements: Strategic requirements: Head Office/CSA strategic S&T requirements: White Paper (National Security Through Technology) implementation Freedom of Action Strategic Requirement: Cost & capability aware requirements definition: Informed, coherent & policy compliant requirements development & definition. Providing a foundation for: Militarily effective systems Cost effective through life capability UK competitiveness Exportability Cost of Reqts. Cost of Standards Note: Requestor is command Deliverer is DE&S Requestor/Deliverer requirements Defence Transformation (Customer Design) strategic S&T requirements: Requestor to Deliverer Requirements process CSA – Chief Scientific Advisor S&T – Science and Technology OFFICIAL 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Predicting the future! 29/11/2018 Technology Disruptive Technology Redundant technology Commercial Lead Emerging Technology Threat Technology Adaptability DLODS Defence Policy Change Manpower reduction Infrastructure Rationalisation Supportability Industry Merger Acquisition Receivership Change Business focus Freedom Of Action Intervention Context Conflict SDSR Legislation New Threat Operational Advantage and Agility Adaptability: Ability to change and update FOA – Hard to predict Op Adv and Agility – huge impact, recently we had to procure a lot of Urgent Operational Requirements for Iraq and Afghanistan to operate in an unanticipated operational environment. These drive in unanticipated costs within acquisition programmes How can you predict what is going to happen – or implement policies that mitigate against the unexpected? The research programme has focused on: Understanding how to procure more adaptable and supportable capabilities Understand the impacts and risks associated with different procurement strategies Understand how to better define capability needs In order to provide advice and guidance to the Commands and procurement organisations to support NSTT implementation and support defence transformation. Now + 30 Years Now 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Present and Future Activities
Uncontrolled copy when printed Present and Future Activities 29/11/2018 Cost Leadership Costs across the Lines of Development, The MOSAIC Model Defence Transformation Defence Equipment and Support (DE&S) and Defence Infrastructure Organisation (DIO) strategic partnering Operational Advantage and Freedom of Action A risk based approach to sovereignty assessment Requirement Setting and Management Improving the way MOD sets and manages its requirements Defence Exports How to set requirements to that both MOD and Industry can gain from overseas sales Future Activities Defence Standards Open and Modular Systems Off The Shelf Procurement These are some of the activities that the project has been undertaking. The two in green I will be covering in more detail on the next few slides. Cost Leadership: Understanding how and where costs across DLODs can be attributed to project Understanding the whole costs of a capability. MOSAIC – particular approach to costing Open Systems. Defence transformation: Ongoing work to assess the business impacts of transformation and strategic partnering. Last year looked at DE&S privatisation options (GOCO vs DES+) My colleague David Lowe is presenting a poster on support to the defence infrastructure organisation at ISMOR Operational Advantage and Freedom of action A key theme from the NSTT to review the way the department implements its industrial strategy. Requirement setting: Dstl are currently looking at what the issues are with MOD requirement setting, and how they should be addressed within the new Defence Operating Model. Defence Exports MOD has a tendency to consider defence exports late on in the acquisition cycle. We also often specify requirements which create barriers to exports without considering their impact, or potential benefits. This study is investigating ways that export potential can be identified earlier, and exploited for the benefit of both defence and industry. This year, the project is also looking at the most cost effective ways to implement defence standards, and the implementation of modular and open systems The project also had an ongoing interest in off the shelf procurement. OFFICIAL 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

The benefits of Open System Architectures
Uncontrolled copy when printed 29/11/2018 The benefits of Open System Architectures There are may benefits associated with Open systems: Examples include: easier to modify and update capabilities through technology insertion Increased export potential – easier to make bespoke variants of different customers Increased opportunities for Small and Medium enterprise involvement Historically it has been difficult to generate an evidence base to support Balance of Investment (BOI) decisions for open and modular systems The cost assessment needs to provide a viable comparison This means that it needs to span the procurement lifecycle and include costs incurred by all budget holders (not just procurement costs) The methods used need to be compliant with JSP507 and treasury rules Source: Arke RP MOSAIC Familiarisation Handbook v4 OFFICIAL 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

29/11/2018 The MOSAIC Framework Enables the lifecycle costs of open architecture options to be compared against a common closed baseline Developed in 2012 to support a requirement from DE&S Cost Assurance and Analysis Service (CAAS) A seven stage modelling process was developed Arke Ltd awarded a contract to develop a Monte-Carlo cost modelling simulation tool Process needs to be undertaken by cost experts closely supported by stakeholders What is Mosaic – the Modular Open Systems Architecture Integrated Cost Framework. Developed in 2012 to meet a CAAS requirement – to produce a tool to cost open systems Allows the whole life costs of Open Architecture options to be compared against a closed baseline. Developed a 7 stage process – implemented by Arke ltd who also developed a training solution Key point is that the process is enabled by, and enables stakeholder engagement – it is driven by an agreed understanding of what the future lifecycle will look like. OFFICIAL 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

29/11/2018 7 stage process MOSAIC needs to be implemented by an experienced cost modelling team, it is not a simple parametric model. It can be used to compare up to three options against a baseline, and as well as assessing investments, it captures benefits and disadvantages associated with each option. Step 1, the global objectives are identified and set. These are applicable to all options. This includes defining the Cost Data Assumptions List, and stakeholder and budget holders who will provide date necessary to drive the assessment. In red - Step 2, the baseline architecture is defined and WBS to enable Step 4, a WLC estimate. During this stage assumptions are made about the lifecycle, including technology refresh and mid life updates. In parallel In yellow Step 3, open system options for relevant elements of the WBS are generated to enable, Step 5, forecasts for each option. An iterative process is then undertaken to capture (Step 6) risks and benefits associated with each of the options, undertake analysis (Step 7) and feed the results back into the option forecasts. This stage requires detailed participation from the stakeholders identified in Step 1. When the most significant risks have been assessed, MOSAIC then provides costs for each option across the project lifecycle allocating costs to each of the budget holders. OFFICIAL 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

29/11/2018 Example Outputs A variety of output formats are available including a cumulative “breakeven” plot which identified the point at which Open Systems investment starts to demonstrate a cost saving over the baseline; a cost per system; an equivalent annual cost for the baseline and options and EPP/ESP year on year cash streams for each option OFFICIAL 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

29/11/2018 Exploitation To date MOSAIC has been used by DE&S project teams to support Balance of Investment (BOI) decision making on over 13 open system projects including: Generic Vehicle Architecture (GVA) on Challenger and Foxhound, The Active Integrated Protection System, Maritime Combat System projects including T23 (Destroyer) and the Future Low Altitude Defence System (FLAADS) The helicopter Common Defensive Aids System (CDAS) Mosaic has been used on over 13 major procurement projects OFFICAL 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Operational Advantage (Op Adv) and Freedom of Action (FOA) Framework
Uncontrolled copy when printed 29/11/2018 Operational Advantage (Op Adv) and Freedom of Action (FOA) Framework Official 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

What is Operational Advantage?
Uncontrolled copy when printed 29/11/2018 What is Operational Advantage? “Operational advantage is the ability to find and maintain an edge over potential adversaries, both to increase the chances of our success in hostile situations and to increase the protection of the UK assets involved, especially our people. This is also fundamental to the overall effect that a given capability can achieve.” “we often need superior technology and other forms of battle-winning edge (so-called “operational advantage”) Essentially about understanding what enables out battle winning edge. NSTT pg26 & 14 OFFICIAL 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

What is Freedom of Action?
Uncontrolled copy when printed 29/11/2018 What is Freedom of Action? This definition is about FoA in operational space “Freedom of action is the ability to determine our internal and external affairs and act in the country’s interests free from intervention by other states or entities, in accordance with our legal obligations. This freedom is the essence of national sovereignty. It is also essential to be able to use a capability effectively, although not at any cost ……… …… able to use them – or continue to use them – whenever we need to; and that when we do so, they will perform as we require.” “we must be able to operate, maintain, and refresh certain capabilities effectively, without being dependent on others (so-called “freedom of action”) 2 Parts Essentially about the ability to use capability when and where we want to Ability to maintain and develop throughout the lifecycle of the capability. This definition is about FoA in capability development space NSTT pg26 & 14 OFFICIAL 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

29/11/2018 Purpose of Framework Enable commands: take a consistent approach to implementing the NSTT principles Open procurement Technology advantage identify risks they could be exposed to in their equipment acquisition programmes/projects That could reduce Operational Advantage or Freedom of Action Identify what needs to be protected identify opportunities for reducing costs through technology Gather evidence for Business Cases to demonstrate that procurement strategy complies with NSTT principles and will deliver value for money To implement Op Adv and FOA, dstl developed a framework Aimed at capability managers in the military customer organisations, and procurement delivery teams. The framework is intended to provide a consistent “handrail” which will enable Op Adv and FOA issues and risks to be identified, while still adhering to the NSTT principles of Open procurement and Technology advantage. Further development of the risks identified can then be used to gather evidence within business cases – providing evidence that the procurement strategy is compliant with the NSTT, and that where interventions are required, they deliver value for money. Where is the project now? Last year, the framework was successfully piloted across the military customer organisations (FLCs). Guidance Being implemented in the Acquisition Operating Framework Commands are currently using it across their portfolios Next step, currently ongoing, is to look at how well it fits into more mature projects in DE&S OFFICIAL 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

29/11/2018 Some examples Cpx wpns (in terms of no. sub-systems) System complexity This shows some examples of systems plotted against complexity and risk of Op adv and FOA issues (NB - rule of thumb!) Bottom Left, soldier systems and small self contained UAVs are relatively simple and easy to replace Top right – complex integrated systems have far more inertia to their procurement cycles and it can be extremely complex to replace or update critical components. The rate of change of technology is a big issue (as in DIII) In addition there is the degree of national security associated with the capabilities – i.e. the nuclear deterrent. Low High Risk to Op Adv/FoA OFFICIAL 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

The Framework Risk assessment process
Uncontrolled copy when printed The Framework Risk assessment process 29/11/2018 Framework been designed to: assess risk to Op Adv and FoA in preparation of key acquisition decision points Level of detail in risk assessment varies accordingly Can be undertaken against the entire capability, or subsystem elements, or different design or procurement options Not all questions will be relevant at Genesis Option (generating new capability options) solution/subsystem/option specific questions may not be relevant Framework been designed to: assess risk to Op Adv and FoA in preparation of key acquisition decision points (Genesis Option across the procurement cycle to Review Note i.e. the generation of new capability requirements) against very different types of capability elements (research to specific systems and components) Level of detail in risk assessment varies accordingly Can be undertaken against the entire capability, or subsystem elements, or different design or procurement options Not all questions will be relevant at Genesis Option (generating new capability options) solution/subsystem/option specific questions may not be relevant OFFICIAL 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Framework Structure (top level)
Uncontrolled copy when printed 29/11/2018 Framework Structure (top level) Intelligent Customer Acquire the battle winning edge Use capability effectively Sustain the battle winning edge Intelligent customer: Knowing where your BWE is, being able to identify and access skill sets to understand and set requirements Acquire: Ability to procure the capabilities free from supply chain risk and 3rd party exploitation Use the capability – Understanding how to use the capability in its operational context, the ability to use the capability confident that it has not been compromised Sustain the BWE – The ability to keep pace with a changing environment and preventing exploitation through life. If you want to see more details, please come and see me at the poster stand OFFICIAL 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Impacts will be across Performance Cost and Time
Uncontrolled copy when printed Impacts will be across Performance Cost and Time 29/11/2018 The basic questions are: Can you spend your way out of the risk? Can you wait to develop a solution? Can you live with the shortfall? The answers to these questions will be for consideration within the business case for the capability What are the impacts of Op Adv and FOA issues? The basic questions you can ask are are: Can you spend your way out of the risk? Is this a cost effective solution/can you afford it Can you wait to develop a solution? What would be the impact of gapping the capability? How much will this cost? Can you live with the shortfall? i.e. Performance, Availability, Deployability, Vulnerabiltiy Over the range of future operational scenarios? The answers to these questions will be for consideration within the business case for the capability. OFFICIAL 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

29/11/2018 If there is an FOA issue, does this mean we need to protect UK industry? For critical national capabilities – possibly For struggling industries - not necessarily Can we get what we want overseas, in such a way that FOA is assured? International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) and licencing can be significant issues For critical national capabilities – possibly Op Adv issues i.e. if there is a risk to the supply chain which will result in an operational deficiency. For struggling industries - not necessarily There may be a need to keep the organisation afloat to mitigate risk while an alternative solution is sourced It may highlight that the UK solution represents too great an FOA risk and we should procure overseas instead (the NSTT principle of Open Procurement) Can we get what we want overseas, in such a way that FOA is assured? ITAR and licencing can be significant issues in terms of our ability to access and update capabilities, which could influence procurement strategy. OFFICIAL 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

29/11/2018 Summary The Budgetary Resilience project in Dstl is undertaking critical research associated with NSTT implementation across MOD The project has provided key evidence to support ongoing defence transformation initiatives The MOSAIC and Op Adv/FOA frameworks are examples of products that are delivering impact across the Front Line Commands (FLCs) and Equipment Programme. OFFICIAL 29 November 2018 © Crown copyright 2014 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Uncontrolled copy when printed"— Presentation transcript:

Similar presentations

About project

Feedback

Log in

Auth with social network:

Uncontrolled copy when printed

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Uncontrolled copy when printed"— Presentation transcript:

Similar presentations

About project

Feedback