1. NCRM Placement Fellowship GO-Science
Corinna Elsenbroich

2. Based in GO Science, working on the NRA in collaboration with the Cabinet Office.

3. the National risk assessment
Risk Register
Landscape of risks and threats the UK faces
Foundation of the national security strategy
Informing security and defence (spending) priorities
Scenario based cost-benefit analysis methodology

4. the National risk assessment?
the National risk assessment
Risk Register
Landscape of risks and threats the UK faces
Foundation of the national security strategy
Informing security and defence (spending) priorities
Scenario based cost-benefit analysis methodology
The Placement
More coherent methodology across departments
Integrate subjective wellbeing into cost benefit analysis

5. Methodological innovation
Dependency Modelling
Bayesian Networks

6. Methodological innovation
Dependency Modelling
Bayesian Networks
Machine Learning
Bayesian Networks

7. Project Plan
worthwhile
anxiety
satisfaction
happiness

8. Project Plan Rain Dam break Flood Infrastructure worthwhile anxiety
satisfaction
happiness

9. Project Plan Storm/Gale Rain Cold and Snow Dam break Flood
Infrastructure
worthwhile
anxiety
satisfaction
happiness

10. Case Study 1
NRA Hazards

11. Hazards
Ultimate Causes
Risk Events
Impacts

12. Case Study 2
Flooding

13. Flooding Combined Model of Surface, Fluvial and Coastal Flooding
Dependency Modelling as a Conference Call
Work in Progress . . .

14. Case Study 3
NRA Threats

15. Threats

16. Marauding Firearms Terrorist Attack
Case Study 3
Case Study 4
Marauding Firearms Terrorist Attack

17. Subjective wellbeing Train a Bayesian Network on
ONS Population Survey
Four wellbeing questions
anxiety
happiness
worthwhile
satisfaction
Usable for cost-benefit analysis across NRA

18. 2015
2014
2013
2016
2017

19. Data Driven BN on ONS Wellbeing Data 2013-2017
The original data set has quite low levels of Anxiety.
Medium Anxiety has a very similar effect on all wellbeing measures.
High Anxiety decreases in particular happiness.
Very low Anxiety increases in particular satisfaction and happiness
show in Open Markov AllYearsWellbeing_learnt_full

20. conclusion Working with policy makers is really interesting!
Dependency Modelling is a great tool for working with experts
A lot of openness for innovation but -
innovation is difficult
terminology matters
Donald Yatomi Opportunity for Change 002