1. Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure
24/01/2017
Maarten Cuijpers

2. Fast development of EV technology over the last decade
Tesla Roadster
Chevrolet Bolt / Opel Ampera-E
$109,000 – 320 km
$ km
2035 ?
Introduce yourself and Ecofys
Skiing anecdote
Realization  we have seen fast development of EV in the last decade
What about the far future?
29/11/2018
Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

3. So.. what can we expect in the long term?
What are future scenarios for the uptake of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure until 2035 in the Netherlands?
Study purpose
Partners
Client and use
Runtime (October to December last year)
Two workshops with stakeholders to provide input.
In this presentation we can only show you the basics of our study. But the full study is available trough the Ecofys website.
29/11/2018
Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

4. Key drivers Energy transition, carsharing and autonomous driving
Limited sharing economy and autonomous driving
Strong sharing economy and autonomous driving
Fast energy transition
Slow energy transition
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Started off by defining key drivers
Horizontal axis: pace of the energy transition
Fast energy transition means
Quickly declining battery prices
Lower electricity prices
Higher fossil fuel prices as a result of taxes
Slower removal of tax benefits for electric vehicles
Strong sharing economy and autonomous driving means
High usage of sharing vehicles, reducing the total stock of vehicles
Fully autonomous cars become available from 2025 onwards
29/11/2018
Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

5. Three step model 1. TCO 2. Uptake 3. Charging infrastructure
User groups (Private, commute, business, vans)
Drive chain (Conventional, PHEV, BEV)
Developments e.g. battery costs, range, policy and energy prices
Stock model
TCO
Consumer willingness
Trips per user group
Preferred charging method
Home charging, work charging
Public charging
Fast charging
Result
Forecast TCO development of EV/PHEV vs. Fossiel
Forecast of the number and type of electric vehicles
Forecast of the number and type of chargers needed
These scenarios were modelled in a three step approach.
TCO
- user groups
- drive chains
Developments
Uptake
Stock model
Charging infrastructure
OVIN database
Preferred charging method
Result:
- Projection of the uptake of EV and the required infrastructure until 2035
29/11/2018
Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

6. Results scenario 1 and 4 Electric cars and required charging infrastructure
In scenario 1 we see
the uptake of electric vehicles primarily taking place from 2020 onwards
Total of around 3 million electric vehicles by 2035
Limited uptake of carsharing and autonomous driving
Around 2.5 million charging points needed by 2035
In scenario 4 we see
Fast uptake of electric vehicles, already from 2017 onwards
Total of 4 million electric vehicles by 2035
Around 1.5 million vehicles less needed as a result from high use of (autonomous) carsharing vehicles
Very high short term growth in the amount of chargers needed to accommodate steep increase in Evs, primarily in the public and work chargers segment.
29/11/2018
Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

7. Key conclusions
TCO for electric vehicles is fast becoming favourable over fossil fuelled vehicles
2017  Business drivers
 Commute drivers
2020–2027  Private drivers
 Light commercial vehicles (vans)
Significantly more charging infrastructure is needed to facilitate EVs, already in the short term
Work chargers  +300% in 2020 (≈ )
Public chargers  +170% in 2020 (≈ )
Home chargers  +30% in 2020 (≈ )
Corridor chargers (fast chargers) are key for long distances, but no alternative to slow (parking) chargers in the short term.
Carsharing and autonomous driving can revolutionise (electric) mobility
Carsharing can reduce the size of the vehicle fleet by 50% in 2050
(Fully) autonomous vehicles potentially gaining market share from 2025 onwards, strongly stimulating carsharing initiatives
Carsharing and autonomous driving can reduce the required charging infrastructure by 25% in 2035
Go over the key conclusions
29/11/2018
Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

8. Recommendations
Stimulate the development of charging infrastructure, primarily focussing on public charging infrastructure and work charging infrastructure
Stimulate the development of car sharing and autonomous driving through innovation and the removal of legislative barriers
Develop a system in which smart charging services can be delivered as a facilitator for the energy transition
Further research needed to better understand the charging preferences of future EV drivers
Go over recommendations
Although the future is unsure we can conclude that we are on the verge of a EV revolution that will change the way in which we fulfil our mobility needs.
New developments, such as carsharing and autonomous driving are on the horizon and could add an additional layer to the or transport system
When I see so many smart people working on electric vehicles and new mobility concepts I am confident that we will realize these changes
Finalize with skiing anecdote – Autonomous Carsharing vehicle in year
Thank you. Questions.
29/11/2018
Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

9. Questions, please contact: Maarten Cuijpers m. cuijpers@ecofys
Questions, please contact: Maarten Cuijpers For the full report, please visit:
29/11/2018
Name

10. Backup – charging infrastructure model
29/11/2018
Name