1. BRAC University, Bangladesh
A Case Study of Displacement and Human Mobility in Bangladesh after Cyclone Aila
Ainun Nishat
Professor Emeritus
BRAC University, Bangladesh
Presented by C3ER team

2. Outline 1. Introductory comments 2. Definition and concepts
3. The study area and Methodology
4. Evidences of displacement and out migration
5. Concluding Remarks
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3. 1. Introductory Comments
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4. Bangladesh to face Climate Climate Change induced hazards
Recognized globally as one of the most vulnerable to adverse impacts of Climate Change
Experiencing the increased frequencies and intensities of natural disasters.
Erratic rainfall; changes in seasons
Short duration heavy rainfall causing land slides and drainage congestion in urban areas
Flood with higher intensity
Cyclones and Tidal surges, and Tornadoes
Salinity intrusion
Drought-like phenomenon
River bank erosion

5. Parameters: drought, flood and cyclone

6. Bangladesh CC Strategy and Action Plan 2009…
Six pillars (Themes)
Food security, social protection & health security
Comprehensive disaster management
Infrastructure development
Research and knowledge management
Mitigation and low carbon development
Capacity building – institutional and human

7. 2. Definition and concepts
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8. The concept: Terminologies
Migration vs. mobility vs. displacement
Migration (human) is the movement of people from one place in the world to another for the purpose of taking up permanent or semi permanent residence, usually across a political boundary.
Mobilityis the movement of people, as from one social group, class, or level to another.
Displacement is the movement of a person or groups of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-made disasters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognized State border.
Ref: IMO Assessing the Evidence: Environment, Climate Change and Migration in Bangladesh. International Migration Organization, Bangladesh.
IMO Glossary of Migration. International Migration Organization,Switzerland.
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9. The concept: Terminologies
Refugee vs. environmental refugee vs. environmental migrants
A refugee is someone who has been forced to flee his or her country because of persecution, war, or violence. A refugee has a well-founded fear of persecution for reasons of race, religion, nationality, political opinion or membership in a particular social group. Most likely, they cannot return home or are afraid to do so. War and ethnic, tribal and religious violence are leading causes of refugees fleeing their countries.
Environmental refugee are those people who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of a marked environmental disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardi(s)ed their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life.
Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, predominantly for reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move within their country or abroad.
Ref: IMO Glossary of Migration. International Migration Organization, Switzerland.
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10. The working definition
Migration: Migration is defined in this survey as the movement of persons who change their place of residence, except for marriage, for a period of six months or more. The time period for the migration due to marriage is not fixed.
Ref (BBS Population and housing census 2011: Socio-economic and demographic report)
Temporary migrant: as the movement for less than six month
Permanent migrant: as the movement for six month or more ( strictly, this may not be termed as permanent migration).
Migration and displacement has been used inter-changeably
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11. 3. The study area and Methodology
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12. Why Shyamnagar in Satkhira
Satkhira was worst hit by cyclone Aila in 2009
Climate change coupled with overall environmental degradation are the major challenges,
Slow onset event (salinity) is creeping in.
Rapid onset events (storm surge) are also of major concern
Primarily impacted sectors is water and agriculture; livelihood is the most vulnerable
Human migration is not a new phenomenon, rather it’s historical,
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13. ShyamnagarUpazila Largest upazila of Satkhira district
Located at °N °E
Area: sq.km including sq.km of forest according to BBS 2001
Bordered by Kaliganj (Satkhira) and Assasuniupazilas on the north, Sundarbans and Bay of Bengal on the south, Koyraand Assasuniupazilas on the east, West Bengal of India on the west.
Rivers: Raymangal, Kalindi, kobadak, Mother Kholpetua, Arpangachia, MalanchaHariabhanga and Chuna.
Unions: Shyamnagar, Atulia, Bhurulia, Burigoalini, Gabura, Ishwaripur, Koikhali, Kashimari, Munshiganj, Nurnagar, Padmopukur, and Ramjannagar
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14. ShyamagarUpazila
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15. ShyamnagarUpazila Household: 722,79
Population : 318,254 (male-153,441 and female-164,813)
Population density: sq/km
Physiographic unit: Ganges tidal floodplain
Bio-ecological zone: Saline tidal floodplain
Annual rainfall:around mm
Annual max temperature: 37oc
Annual min temperature: 11oc
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16. Climatic Hazards in Satkhira
Rapid Onset Events
Climatic extremes
Non-rainy days
Short duration heavy rainfall
No of hot summer days, etc.
Storm and cyclonic surge
Hail storm
Flood
River bank erosion
Slow onset events
Climatic norms
Increase in Temperature, Rainfall and other weather parameters
Salinity increase
Drought
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17. The method: Approach Stratified Random Sampling
Complete household census of two unions
Gabura: 7,565
Munshiganj: 7,645
Total: 15,210
Drawing the statistically significant sample
At 5% error margin and 90-95% confidence interval
Migrant: 359, non-migrant: 272
Stratified Random Sampling
Migrant vs Non Migrant HH
Spatial distribution (9 wards under Gabura and Munshiganj)
Occupation
Religion and ethnic community
More than 30 FGD sessions covering all occupation class
More than 15 Key Informant Interviews
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18. The method
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19. 4. Evidences of displacement and out-migration
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20. We asked……..! We had asked every house-hold to find out
Who is migrating/ moving out;
Where they are migrating/moving out;
Why they are migrating/moving out;
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21. Who is migrating?
One of every ten people from the locality has already been migrated after cyclone Aila
Extent of temporary and permanent migration from Gabura union is higher
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22. Who is migrating? Mostly, the day labors are migrating 11/29/2018
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23. Who is migrating? Type of Migration>> Temporary Permanent Total
Religion
Union
Count %
Muslim
Gabura
3157
9.32%
501
1.48%
3658
10.80%
Munshiganj
1346
5.95%
156
0.69%
1502
6.65%
4503
7.97%
657
1.16%
5160
9.13%
Hindu
134
8.11%
122
7.38%
256
15.49%
1007
8.06%
425
3.40%
1432
11.46%
1141
547
3.87%
1688
11.93%
Munda 11
4.62% 26
10.92% 37
15.55% 15
9.87%
0.00%
6.67% 52
13.33%
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24. Flow of temporary migration from Gabura and Munshiganj union
Destination
# of migrants
Cross Boundary
508
Satkhira
216
Khulna
177
Jessore 95
Dhaka 56
Gopalganj 30
Chittagong 27
Rangamati 21
Bagerhat 13
Comilla
Munshiganj
Kushtia 8
Sunamganj 6
Panchagar 5
Bhola 4
Manikganj 3
Out Migration
Faridpur 2
Feni 1
Tangail
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25. Flow of permanent migration from Gabura and Munshiganj union
Destination
# of migrants
Dhaka
1197
Khulna
1156
Satkhira
831
Cross Boundary
817
Jessore
463
Gopalganj 96
Chittagong 87
Comilla 70
Norail 59
Manikganj 43
Barisal 41
Rangamati 34
Out Migration
Noakhali 32
Mymensingh 27
Sylhet 26
Kishorganj 24
Munshiganj 22
Patuakhali
Kushtia 19
Tangail
Rangpur 15
Madaripur 13
Destination
# of migrants
Madaripur 13
Dinajpur 11
Shariatpur
Cox's bazar 9
Narail
Rajshahi 8
Bagerhat 7
Faridpur
Bogra 5
Lakshmipur
Feni
Narayanganj 4
Shirajganj
Bhola 2
Pirojpur
Barisal 1
Brahmonbaria
Gazipur
Khagracharri
Magura
Nator
Netrokona
Pabna
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26. Tracking the migrants…
Distribution pattern of temporary migration
Distribution pattern of permanent migration
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27. Why peoples are migrating?
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28. Why peoples are migrating?
Mean daily income of the non-migrant household is less that BDT 62 than that of the migrant households.
Similarly mean annual income varies within the range of USD 479 to USD 678 between non-migrant and migrant households.
Only 13.4% of the migrants have reported income that crosses the average annual income of Bangladeshi nationals (USD 923, according to BBS’s statistics of May’2013); in comparison, 7.7% of the total reported non-migrants).
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29. Governance gap in support provision
A very few percentage (7%) of the migrant and non-migrant families have reported to receive support from the government, both for supporting their current or alternative occupation.
Around 35% of the migrant families have reported to receive support from the NGOs
Majority support provision (more than 55%) comes from other sources, which includes support from neighbors and communities.
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30. Governance gap in support provision
Those who claimed to receive some kind of support from any sources, majority received support in terms of short duration work.
It is one of the critical findings of the current study that short duration work programs implemented by the Government as social safety net programs did support peoples not to migrate.
It is evident that the proportion of those who received capital is notably higher (more than 20%) in the case of non-migrants.
It may imply the importance of providing capital support instead of providing short duration work during post disaster period for supporting livelihood options.
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31. Why peoples are migrating?
More than two-third (76.2%) of the cases that the available water supply facility was inadequate
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32. Why peoples are migrating?
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34. 5. Concluding Remarks
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35. Summing up… Climate change induced migration is evident!
Involuntary migration is not an adaptation option, rather it’s the last resort!
Rate of migration has increased tremendously after Aila
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36. The global urgency Decision 1/Cop 16 in Cancun, Mexico (2010).
Paragraph 14(f) calls upon states to enhance their action on adaptation by pursuing a range of measures, including ‘to enhance understanding, coordination and cooperation with regard to climate change induced displacement, migration and planned relocation, where appropriate, at the national, regional and international levels’
“planned relocation” recognize that policy needs to address might not be migration or displacement, but those who are unable or unwilling to move without assistance.
Decision 3/ COP 18 in Doha (2012)
Paragraph 7(a)-vi calls for the enhanced understanding on “How impacts of climate change are affecting patterns of migration, displacement and human mobility”
“enhanced understanding” recognize the need for understanding the climate change induced migration phenomenon, it’s root causes and range of approaches to address the issue
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37. 4. Support management of Climate change induced migration process
Decision 14(f) taken in Cop 16, in Cancun (2010) recognized that issues related to climate change induced displaced people and migrants need to be addressed.
Paris(2015) may work out a well defined mechanism to address issues emerging on this subject.

38. Thank you
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