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Consumer Visits to OOH Q3 09 Topline
CREST® Data Through September 2009
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Industry Trends Total Out Of Home Total Commercial Quick Service
Pubs/Pub Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Travel & Leisure Workplace
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Economic Overview
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Gross Domestic Product
Economic Overview Gross Domestic Product UK GDP declined by 5.2% in Q3 09 vs. YA Growth rates in average earnings, excluding bonuses, has dropped to 1.9% (JJA 09) Average Earnings Unemployment rate rose to 7.9% (JJA 09) Unemployment Rate Consumer Price Index dropped to 1.1% in September 09, which is below the target inflation growth rate of 2.0% Inflation Consumer Confidence Consumer confidence index improved from -16 in August 09 to -10 in September 09 Proprietary and Confidential
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Gross Domestic Product
GDP declined by 5.2% in Q3 09 vs last year; the Unemployment rate is now at 7.9% in the three months to August 09 -’06- ’ ’ -’09- Gross Domestic Product Unemployment Rate Average Earnings exc. bonuses *Source: Office of National Statistics
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The CPI index was 1.1% in September 09, below the target rate
Consumer Price Growth Rates - Through Sep 2009 One Year Ago Bank of England Target *Source: Office of National Statistics
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The Bank of England maintains the interest rate at 0
The Bank of England maintains the interest rate at 0.5% in October 2009 and continues with the £175 Billion Asset Purchase Program UK Interest Rates-Base Rate (%) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source:
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Consumer Confidence UK
Source: European Commission
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Total OOH
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Total OOH Channel Review
In YE Sep 09, Sales of Total OOH declined by 2.5% Traffic declined 2.8% Average spend increased 0.3% to £3.73 In Q3, Traffic of Total OOH declined by 2.8%, due to declining Traffic across all channels with the exception of QSR The Workplace and Travel & Leisure are the biggest channels in terms of Traffic within Total OOH; both suffered a traffic decline Lunch, Morning & Afternoon Snack lost traffic share; the weekend gained traffic share Eaten On-Premise lost whilst eaten at Home & Outside gained share The year olds lost share in total OOH The low income households lost share; Parties with kids gained share Chips/French Fries is the top food item in Total OOH and gained incidence in YE Sep 09 vs year ago Beef Burger was the top performing item in Total OOH reflecting the success of the Burger players Coffee and Tea are the most important drinks in Total OOH, both lost importance Unhealthy drinks are gaining whereas the healthy ones are declining in Total OOH Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Total OOH Sales declined sourcing to a decline in Traffic
Total OOH: Components of Spending- YE Sep 09 vs YA SALES -2.5% YE Sep 08: £46.4 Billion YE Sep 09: £45.3 Billion TRAFFIC -2.8% YE Sep 08: 12.5 Billion YE Sep 09: 12.1 Billion AVE IND SPEND +0.3% YE Sep 08: £3.72 YE Sep 09: £3.73 Av. Number of Items +2.6% Price/Item -2.2%
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Total OOH Sales declined in Q3 09 sourcing to a decline in Traffic and Average Individual Spend
Total OOH: Components of Spending - % Change vs. Year Ago 0.8 -0.1 -5.7 -0.7 -3.4 Sales Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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In Q3 09 only QSR traffic increased
Traffic % Change vs. Year Ago JAS '08 OND '08 JFM '09 AMJ '09 JAS '09 Total OOH QSR Pubs Full Serve Rest Travel & Leisure Workplace College/Uni In Q3 09 only QSR traffic increased Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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The top two channels – the Workplace and Travel & Leisure - suffered from a Traffic decline in Q3 09
Share of OOH Traffic Total OOH Category Traffic (000) Q3 09 vs YA PCYA 20.3 14.6 10.8 7.3 7.2 5.4 5.3 5.0 4.7 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.4 1.3 0.8 Workplace Travel & Leisure Retail/Supermarket QS Burger College/Uni Pubs FSR exc Cafe QS Ethnic QS Bakery QS Other QS Sandwich QS Fish n Chips QS Chicken QS Coffee QS Pizza/Italian Commercial Vending Café/Bistro Petrol Stations -4.8 -7.5 0.2 5.4 -4.3 -4.6 -5.7 -3.1 0.7 -5.9 0.0 3.6 5.1 -0.5 4.8 -3.5 -1.9 -5.6 PCYA = % Change vs. Year Ago Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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QSR gained Traffic share whereas the Workplace and Travel & Leisure lost share
Traffic Distribution by channel Check data Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Lunch, Morning & Afternoon Snack lost traffic share; the weekend gained traffic share
Total OOH: Distribution of Traffic by Day - & Weekpart Sat-Sun Mo-Fri Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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The 35-49 year olds lost share in total OOH
Total OOH: Distribution of Traffic Age & Gender Female Male Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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The low income households lost share; Parties with kids gained share
Total OOH: Distribution of Traffic by Party Composition & Household Income Parties with Kids Adult Only Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Eaten On-Premise lost whilst eaten at Home & Outside gained share
Total OOH: Distribution of Traffic Where Ordered Where Eaten YE Sep 08 YE Sep 09 YE Sep 08 YE Sep 09 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Chips/French Fries is the top food item in Total OOH and gained incidence in YE Sep 09 vs year ago
Top 20 Food Items in Total OOH: Incidence YE Sep 09 Incidence change Vs YA 0.2 -0.3 0.9 0.0 -0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Incremental Servings (000)
Beef Burger was the top performing item in Total OOH reflecting the success of the Burger players Total OOH – Best Performing Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence change Incidence Incremental Servings (000) 6.2 1.9 4.1 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.4 0.6 0.8 2.3 Beef Burger Chicken Burger Pizza Mashed Potatoes Chicken Nuggets/Strips/Popcorn Jacket/Stuffed Potato Chicken-Other Hot Dog Ham Eggs/Omelette/Quiche 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Sandwiches declined in OOH
Total OOH – Worst Performing Items YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence change Incidence Incremental Servings (000) 3.2 0.8 3.0 2.5 1.5 3.1 1.2 9.3 4.6 Chocolate Bar Other Potato (boiled etc) Sandwich (Fish/Seafood) Sandwich-Other Pie-(Meat/Vegetable) Cake Tea Biscuits/Scone Sandwich (Meat) Sandwich (Vegetarian) Fruit -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Coffee and Tea are the most important drinks in Total OOH, both lost importance
Top 10 Beverage Items in OOH: Incidence YE Sep 09 Incidence change Vs YA -0.5 -0.3 1.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 -0.2 0.2 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Incremental Servings (000)
Unhealthy drinks are gaining whereas the healthy ones are declining in Total OOH Total OOH – Best/Worst Performing Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence Incremental Servings (000) Incidence change 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 9.1 1.5 4.2 0.6 4.3 1.8 9.5 6.4 9.8 Cola-Regular Milkshakes Other Fizzy Flavours Other Hot Beverages Water-Tap Hot Chocolate Traditional Coffee Water - Bottled Tea Juice Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Total Commercial
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Total Commercial Channel Review
In YE Sep 09, Sales through Total Commercial declined by 2.3% Traffic declined 1.9% Average spend was down by 0.5% to £4.84 QS Burger and QS Chicken were the top performing channels in terms of traffic gains in Total Commercial in Q3 09 The weekend gained traffic share YE Sep 09 vs a year ago The year olds gained share in Total Commercial The low & high income households lost share; Parties with kids gained share Eaten at home and outside gained whilst eaten at eating place lost share Chips/French Fries and Sandwiches are the most important Food items in Total Commercial Beef Burger was the top performing item in Total Commercial reflecting the success of the Burger players Healthy items such as Fruit and Salad were amongst the worst performing items in Total Commercial Cola is the top beverage in Total Commercial Unhealthy Regular Cola was the fastest growing drink whereas healthy Juice declined the strongest in Total Commercial Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Commercial Sales declined sourcing to a decline in traffic and average spend
Total Commercial: Components of Spending- YE Sep 09 vs YA SALES -2.3% YE Sep 08: £42.5 Billion YE Sep 09: £41.5 Billion TRAFFIC -1.9% YE Sep 08: 8.7 Billion YE Sep 09: 8.6 Billion AVE IND SPEND -0.5% YE Sep 08: £4.86 YE Sep 09: £4.84 Av. Number of Items +4.2% Price/Item -4.5%
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Commercial Sales declined in Q3 09
Total Commercial: Components of Spending - % Change vs. Year Ago 1.2 Sales 0.1 -5.1 -0.3 -3.4 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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QS Burger and QS Chicken performed the best in Q3 09
Share of Commercial Traffic Total Commercial Category Incremental Traffic (000)- Q3 09 vs YA PCYA 10.2 3.4 4.1 3.0 6.6 15.1 4.2 3.1 1.8 1.2 7.0 4.8 7.5 20.6 QS Burger QS Chicken QS Fish n Chips QS Pizza/Italian QS Bakery Retail/Supermarket QS Sandwich QS Coffee Café/Bistro Petrol Stations QS Ethnic QS Other Pubs FSR exc Cafe Travel & Leisure 5.4 5.1 3.6 4.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 -0.5 -1.9 -5.6 -3.1 -5.9 -4.6 -5.7 -7.5 PCYA = % Change vs. Year Ago Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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The weekend gained share in the commercial channel
Total Commercial: Distribution of Traffic by Day & Weekpart Sat-Sun Mo-Fri Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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The 13-17 year olds gained share in Total Commercial
Total Commercial: Distribution of Traffic by Age & Gender Female Male Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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The low & high income households lost share; Parties with kids gained share
Total Commercial: Distribution of Traffic by Household Income & Party Composition Parties with Kids Adult Only Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Eaten at home and outside gained whilst eaten at eating place lost share
Total Commercial: Distribution of Traffic Where Ordered Where Eaten YE Sep 08 YE Sep 09 YE Sep 08 YE Sep 09 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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The second most important item, Sandwich (Meat), lost half a percentage point in YE Sep 09 vs year ago Top 20 Food Items in Total Commercial: Incidence YE Sep 09 Incidence change Vs YA -0.2 -0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.1 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Incremental Servings (000)
Beef Burger was the top performing item in Total Commercial reflecting the success of the Burger players Total Commercial – Best Performing Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence Incremental Servings (000) Incidence change 7.6 1.0 2.2 2.3 3.3 3.0 2.5 3.1 Beef Burger Mashed Potatoes Crisps/Salty Snacks Chicken Burger Chicken Nuggets/Strips/Popcorn Bacon Non-Fried Vegetables Sausage Other Dessert Bread-Toast/Sliced 0.7 0.3 0.2 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Incremental Servings (000)
Healthy items such as Fruit and Salad were amongst the worst performing items in Total Commercial Total Commercial – Worst Performing Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence change Incidence Incremental Servings (000) 2.2 3.3 0.4 0.8 1.6 1.5 5.1 4.0 18.9 9.2 Fruit Cake Rice Other Potato (boiled etc) Pie-(Meat/Vegetable) Chocolate Bar Salad Sandwich (Vegetarian) Chips/French Fries Sandwich (Meat) -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Cola is the most important drinks in Total Commercial
Top 10 Beverage Items in Total Commercial: Incidence YE Sep 09 Incidence change Vs YA 1.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.6 0.3 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Incremental Servings (000)
Unhealthy Regular Cola was the fastest growing drink whereas healthy Juice declined the strongest in Total Commercial Total Commercial – Best/Worst Performing Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence Incremental Servings (000) Incidence change 10.7 1.9 4.9 2.8 0.7 8.6 6.4 7.0 5.9 Cola-Regular Milkshakes Other Fizzy Flavours Water-Tap Cocktails/Mixed Drinks Cola-Diet Traditional Coffee Tea Water - Bottled Juice 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Quick Service
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Quick Service Review In YE Sep 09, Sales through QSR increased by 1.5%
Traffic increased 0.4% Average spend increased 1.2% to £3.26 QSR Sales recovered in Q2/Q3 09 The year olds lost share whereas the year olds gained traffic share in QSR The low income households lost share; Parties with kids gained share Eaten outside gained whilst eaten at work/school & car/transport lost share Domino‘s was the top performer followed by McDonald‘s and KFC in YE Sep 09; all three chains had a balanced increase of traffic and individual spend whereas BK‘s sales increase is solely sourcing to and increase in individual spend; Subway‘s Sales declined due to a decline in individual spend (Snack menu) Traditional items such as Pasty and Sausage Roll make the top twenty list in QSR Burgers, Chicken, Pizza and Garlic Bread were amongst the top performing items in Total QSR reflecting the success of the Burger, Chicken and Pizza players Cola is the most important drink in QSR Regular Cola and Milkshakes were the fastest growing drinks in QSR; Tap Water gained importance whereas Bottled Water declined Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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YE Sep 08: £17.1 Billion YE Sep 09: £17.3 Billion
Quick Service Sales increased by 1.5% sourcing to an increase in Traffic and Average Individual Spend Quick Service: Components of Spending- YE Sep 09 vs YA SALES +1.5% YE Sep 08: £17.1 Billion YE Sep 09: £17.3 Billion TRAFFIC +0.4% YE Sep 08: 5.3 Billion YE Sep 09: 5.3 Billion AVE IND SPEND +1.2% YE Sep 08: £3.23 YE Sep 09: £3.26 Av. Number of Items +4.9% Price/Item -3.6%
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QSR Sales recovered in Q2 & Q3 09
Quick Service: Components of Spending - % Change vs. Year Ago 4.1 2.7 -1.0 2.3 1.9 Sales Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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There were no significant day- or weekpart changes in QSR
Quick Service: Distribution of Traffic by Day- & Weekpart Sat-Sun Mo-Fri Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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The 35-49 year olds lost share whereas the 13-17 year olds gained traffic share in QSR
Quick Service: Distribution of Traffic by Age & Gender Female Male Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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The low income households lost share; Parties with kids gained share
QSR: Distribution of Traffic by Household Income & Party Composition Parties with Kids Adult Only Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Eaten outside gained whilst eaten at work/school & car/transport lost share
Quick Service: Distribution of Traffic Where Ordered Where Eaten YE Sep 08 YE Sep 09 YE Sep 08 YE Sep 09 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Traditional items such as Pasty and Sausage Roll make the top twenty list in QSR
Top 20 Food Items in QSR: Incidence YE Sep 09 Incidence change Vs YA 0.4 -0.7 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.3 -0.3 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Incremental Servings (000)
Burgers, Chicken, Pizza and Garlic Bread were amongst the top performing items in Total QSR reflecting the success of the Burger, Chicken and Pizza players Total QSR – Best Performing Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence Incidence change Incremental Servings (000) 9.7 3.3 2.7 21.0 2.4 4.7 1.5 0.8 1.8 Beef Burger Chicken Nuggets/Strips/Popcorn Crisps/Salty Snacks Chips/French Fries Chicken Burger Sausage Roll Pizza Chicken-Other Garlic Bread Bacon 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Incremental Servings (000)
Sweet Bakery and Sandwiches were amongst the worst performing items in QSR Total QSR – Worst Performing Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence Incidence change Incremental Servings (000) 1.0 0.4 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.1 1.9 4.8 11.8 Muffin Chicken Wings Kebab Chocolate Bar Cake Cookie Ice Cream Sandwich (Vegetarian) Pie-(Meat/Vegetable) Sandwich (Meat) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Cola is the most important drink in QSR
Top 10 Beverage Items in QSR: Incidence YE Sep 09 Incidence change Vs YA 1.8 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 0.5 0.1 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Incremental Servings (000)
Regular Cola and Milkshakes were the fastest growing drinks in QSR; Tap Water gained importance whereas Bottled Water declined QSR – Best/Worst Performing Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence Incremental Servings (000) Incidence change 1.8 0.5 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 11.8 2.4 2.0 0.4 1.0 9.2 6.8 4.9 5.4 5.5 Cola-Regular Milkshakes Water-Tap Other Hot Beverages Energy/Sports Drink Cola-Diet Specialty Coffee Traditional Coffee Tea Water - Bottled Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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QSR Branded Competition
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Components of Sale – YE Sep 09 vs. YA
Domino‘s was the top performer followed by McDonald‘s and KFC in YE Sep 09; all three chains had a balanced increase of traffic and individual spend whereas BK‘s sales increase is solely sourcing to an increase in individual spend; Subway‘s Sales declined due to a decline in individual spend (Snack menu) Components of Sale – YE Sep 09 vs. YA Traffic +5.0% Ind Spend +5.4% Sales +10.7% Traffic +6.7% Ind Spend +4.1% Sales +11.0% Traffic -2.0% Ind Spend +11.8% Sales +9.6% Traffic +0.4% Ind Spend +1.2% Sales +1.5% Total QSR Traffic -2.6% Ind Spend +2.5% Sales -0.2% Total Traffic +7.2% Ind Spend +3.7% Sales +11.2% Traffic +4.3% Ind Spend -0.5% Sales +3.9% Traffic +2.4% Ind Spend -4.3% Sales -2.0% Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Components of Sale – Q3 09 vs. YA
Domino‘s was the top performer followed by McDonald‘s and KFC in Q3 09; all three chains had a balanced increased both traffic and individual spend whereas BK‘s sales increase is solely sourcing to an increase in individual spend Components of Sale – Q3 09 vs. YA Traffic +8.2% Ind Spend +3.4% Sales +11.9% Traffic -2.3% Ind Spend +10.7% Sales +8.1% Traffic +5.3% Ind Spend +4.6% Sales +10.2% Traffic +0.7% Ind Spend +1.3% Sales +1.9% Total QSR Traffic +1.3% Ind Spend +2.7% Sales +4.1% Total Traffic +12.5% Ind Spend +4.1% Sales +17.1% Traffic +2.6% Ind Spend -1.0% Sales +3.6% Traffic +2.5% Ind Spend -4.8% Sales -2.4% Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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The top three QSR chains saw a strong performance YE Sep 09 vs YA
Top Ten Quick Service Chains exc Retailers: Traffic in (000) YE Sep 09 vs YA PCYA 6.7 4.3 5.0 2.4 -2.0 6.6 7.2 1.8 -8.1 -7.9 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Pubs/Pub Restaurants
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Pub Review In YE Sep 09, Sales through Pubs decreased by 3.9%
Traffic declined -3.4% Average spend decreased 0.6% to £7.88 After recovering in Q2 09, Pub sales declined by nearly 7% in Q3 09 The weekend gained share in Pubs The 50+ gained share in Pubs The low income households lost share; Parties with kids gained share Main Dish Beef declined whereas Beef Burgers gained incidence in Pubs Chicken and Non-Fried Vegetables gained the most in Pubs Beef, Lamb, Fish & Seafood were amongst the worst performing items Beer and Wine/Champ are the most important drinks in Pubs Wine/Champ gained incidence whereas Beer is declining the strongest Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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YE Sep 08: £6.0 Billion YE Sep 09: £5.8 Billion
Pub Sales declined mainly due to a decline in Traffic Pubs: Components of Spending- YE Sep 09 vs YA SALES -3.9% YE Sep 08: £6.0 Billion YE Sep 09: £5.8 Billion TRAFFIC -3.4% YE Sep 08: 762 Mio. YE Sep 09: 736 Mio. AVG. IND SPEND -0.6% YE Sep 08: £7.92 YE Sep 09: £7.88 Av. Number of Items +11.0% Price/Item -10.5%
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After recovering in Q2 09, Pub sales declined by nearly 7% in Q3 09
Pubs: Components of Spending - % Change vs. Year Ago -2.1 -1.8 -6.8 -0.3 -6.9 Sales Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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The weekend gained share in Pubs
Pubs: Distribution of Traffic by Day & Weekpart Sat-Sun Mo-Fri Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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The 50+ gained share in Pubs
Pubs: Distribution of Traffic Age & Gender Female Male Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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The low income households lost share; Parties with kids gained share
Pubs: Distribution of Traffic by Household Income & Party Composition Parties with Kids Adult Only Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Main Dish Beef declined whereas Beef Burgers gained incidence in Pubs
Top 20 Food Items in Pubs: Incidence YE Sep 09 Incidence change Vs YA 0.9 -0.6 -0.4 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 1.3 -0.1 1.5 0.7 0.5 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Chicken and Non-Fried Vegetables gained the most in Pubs
Total Pubs – Best Performing Items YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence Incremental Servings (000) Incidence change 4.6 11.9 5.7 7.4 2.3 4.3 4.5 0.7 3.6 Chicken-Non Fried Non-Fried Vegetables Pasta Ice Cream Fried Chicken Sausage Ham Sausage Roll Mashed Potatoes Onion rings 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Beef, Lamb, Fish & Seafood were amongst the worst performing items
Total Pubs – Worst Performing Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence change Incidence Incremental Servings (000) 2.5 0.4 2.0 2.3 4.6 5.0 2.6 1.5 12.9 15.1 Garlic Bread Fried Vegetables Non-Fried Fish Lamb Seafood Fried Fish Other Potato (boiled etc) Other Dessert Salad Beef -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Beer and Wine/Champ are the most important drinks in Pubs
Top 10 Beverage Items in Pubs: Incidence YE Sep 09 Incidence change Vs YA -1.2 1.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 -0.4 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Wine/Champ gained incidence whereas Beer is declining the strongest
Pubs – Best/Worst Performing Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence Incremental Servings (000) Incidence change Cola-Regular Wine/Champ Other Cold Beverages Water-Tap Cocktails/Mixed Drinks Traditional Coffee Juice Cola-Diet Other Alcoholic Beverages Beer 13.3 15.5 4.4 3.4 2.1 3.5 10.6 10.7 3.2 26.8 1.6 0.7 0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -1.0 -1.2 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Full Service Restaurants
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Full Service Restaurants Review
In YE Sep 09, Sales through FSR decreased by 4.1% Traffic declined -5.2% Average spend increased 1.1% to £10.94 Dinner and the weekend gained share in FSR FSR lost share with young adults The £19-30K income households lost share in FSR Italian items such as Pizza and Pasta are amongst the top five items in FSR, both gained incidence Sides performed well in FSR Indian Main Dish and Duck were amongst the worst performing items reflecting the poor performance of the FS Chinese and FS Indian channels Wine/Champ and Beer are the most important drinks in FSR Tap Water gained whilst Bottled Water declined in FSR Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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YE Sep 08: £7.9 Billion YE Sep 09: £7.6 Billion
FSR Sales declined due to a strong traffic decline FSR: Components of Spending- YE Sep 09 vs YA SALES -4.1% YE Sep 08: £7.9 Billion YE Sep 09: £7.6 Billion TRAFFIC -5.2% YE Sep 08: 733 Mio. YE Sep 09: 695 Mio. AVG. IND SPEND +1.1% YE Sep 08: £10.82 YE Sep 09: £10.94 Av. Number of Items +6.3% Price/Item -4.8%
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FSR sales saw a decline over the last four quarters
FSR: Components of Spending - % Change vs. Year Ago 0.0 -1.4 -6.9 -2.8 -5.5 Sales Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Dinner and the weekend gained share in FSR
FSR: Distribution of Traffic by Day- & Weekpart Sat-Sun Mo-Fri Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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FSR lost share with young adults
FSR: Distribution of Traffic by Age & Gender Female Male Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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The £19-30K income households lost share in FSR
FSR: Distribution of Traffic by Household Income & Party Composition Parties with Kids Adult Only Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Italian items such as Pizza and Pasta are amongst the top five items in FSR, both gained incidence
Top 20 Food Items in FSR: Incidence YE Sep 09 Incidence change Vs YA 0.6 0.1 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 -0.6 -0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Sides performed well in FSR
Total FSR – Best Performing Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence Incidence change Incremental Servings (000) 10.7 2.5 2.2 5.4 8.8 1.7 6.4 4.0 8.6 1.6 Salad Pudding Mashed Potatoes Garlic Bread Beef Chicken Nuggets/Strips/Popcorn Non-Fried Vegetables Lamb Pasta Onion rings 1.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.5 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Incremental Servings (000)
Indian Main Dish and Duck were amongst the worst performing items reflecting the poor performance of the FS Chinese and FS Indian channels Total FSR – Worst Performing Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence change Incidence Incremental Servings (000) 4.6 2.4 1.3 2.0 1.6 6.9 13.8 7.5 5.2 3.0 Other Dessert Other Potato (boiled etc) Pies/Crumbles Duck Sandwich (Vegetarian) Chicken-Other Pizza Indian Main Dish Soup Sandwich (Meat) -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 -0.6 -0.8 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Wine/Champ and Beer are the most important drinks in FSR
Top 10 Beverage Items in FSR: Incidence YE Sep 09 Incidence change Vs YA -1.2 0.3 -0.5 0.5 -0.6 0.6 -0.3 -1.3 2.0 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Tap Water gained whilst Bottled Water declined in FSR
FSR – Best/Worst Performing Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence Incremental Servings (000) Incidence change 7.1 8.1 2.9 2.5 1.5 7.5 9.4 11.9 7.3 16.9 Other Fizzy Flavours Water-Tap Other Cold Beverages Other Alcoholic Beverages Cocktails/Mixed Drinks Specialty Coffee Juice Cola-Regular Water - Bottled Wine/Champ 2.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -1.3 -1.2 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Wetherspoon was highly successful in YE Sep 09 due to meal deal offers and outlet expansion
Top 10 Restaurant & Pub Chains: Traffic in (000)- YE Sep 09 vs YA PCYA 1.9 6.4 1.7 -0.7 0.8 2.2 1.8 3.5 -0.2 1.2 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Travel & Leisure
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Travel & Leisure Review
In YE Sep 09, Sales through T&L decreased by 6.2% Traffic declined by 6.4% Average spend increased 0.2% to £6.07 After a slight recovery in Q2 09; Sales declined again strongly in Q3 09 Travel & Leisure lost share at dinner and gained share at the weekend T&L gained with women and the year olds The £50K+ income households lost share; Parties with Kids gained share Eaten on Premise declined significantly whilst eaten outside & at work/school gained share Over 10% of orders include an ice cream in Travel & Leisure Sides performed well in T&L Healthy items such as Fruit and Salad declined in T&L Tea is the second most important drink in Travel & Leisure Specialty Coffee gained whereas Traditional Coffee & Tea declined in Travel & Leisure Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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YE Sep 08: £10.7 Billion YE Sep 09: £10.0 Billion
Travel & Leisure sales declined the strongest sourcing to a strong decline in traffic Travel & Leisure: Components of Spending- YE Sep 09 vs YA SALES -6.2% YE Sep 08: £10.7 Billion YE Sep 09: £10.0 Billion TRAFFIC -6.4% YE Sep 08: 1.8 Billion YE Sep 09: 1.7 Billion AVG. IND SPEND +0.2% YE Sep 08: £6.06 YE Sep 09: £6.07 Av. Number of Items +1.5% Price/Item -1.2%
84
After a slight recovery in Q2 09; Sales declined again strongly in Q3 09
Travel & Leisure: Components of Spending - % Change vs. Year Ago Sales -1.2 -2.3 -11.3 -2.6 -8.4 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
85
Travel & Leisure lost share at dinner and gained share at the weekend
Travel & Leisure: Distribution of Traffic by Day- & Weekpart Sat-Sun Mo-Fri Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
86
T&L gained with women and the 25-34 year olds
Travel & Leisure: Distribution of Traffic by Age & Gender Female Male Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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The £50K+ income households lost share; Parties with Kids gained share
Travel & Leisure: Distribution of Traffic by Household Income & Party Composition Parties with Kids Adult Only Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Eaten on Premise declined significantly whilst eaten outside & at work/school gained share
Travel & Leisure: Distribution of Traffic Where Ordered Where Eaten YE Sep 08 YE Sep 09 YE Sep 08 YE Sep 09 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Over 10% of orders include an ice cream in Travel & Leisure
Top 20 Food Items in Travel & Leisure: Incidence YE Sep 09 Incidence change Vs YA 1.1 -3.2 0.9 1.0 -0.6 0.8 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 1.4 0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
90
Sides performed well in T&L
Total Travel & Leisure – Best Performing Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incremental Servings (000) Incidence change Incidence 5.1 3.5 2.1 4.8 7.0 1.9 5.0 6.1 0.8 3.8 Other Dessert Beef Burger Mashed Potatoes Non-Fried Vegetables Bacon Chinese Main Dish Sausage Eggs/Omelette/Quiche Onion rings Roast Potatoes 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.6 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
91
Healthy items such as Fruit and Salad declined in T&L
Total Travel & Leisure – Worst Performing Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incremental Servings (000) Incidence change Incidence 1.6 1.3 0.9 5.0 0.8 5.5 2.8 3.3 6.1 7.7 Crisps/Salty Snacks Other Potato (boiled etc) Chocolate Bar Sandwich (Meat) Fried Chicken Fruit Pasta Sandwich (Vegetarian) Salad Chips/French Fries -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -3.2 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
92
Tea is the second most important drink in Travel & Leisure
Top 10 Beverage Items in Travel & Leisure: Incidence YE Sep 09 Incidence change Vs YA -0.1 -1.1 0.0 -0.9 0.9 -2.5 -0.8 0.1 -0.5 0.2 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Incremental Servings (000)
Specialty Coffee gained whereas Traditional Coffee & Tea declined in Travel & Leisure Travel & Leisure – Best/Worst Performing Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence Incremental Servings (000) Incidence change 1.9 1.1 10.6 0.4 0.5 12.6 7.5 11.6 11.7 8.4 Cocktails/Mixed Drinks Milkshakes Specialty Coffee Slushy/Frozen Drink Smoothie Wine/Champ Water - Bottled Traditional Coffee Tea Juice 0.5 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.8 -0.9 -1.1 -2.5 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Workplace
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Workplace Review In YE Sep 09, Workplace Sales declined by 4.3% compared to year ago, whilst the Commercial sector declined by 2.3% Traffic decreased 5.0% Average spend increased 0.7% to £0.97 (including free occasions) Business accounts for the lion share of workplace traffic The most important daypart lunch gained share in total workplace In Business late vending snack lost share In Industry afternoon snack lost significant share in the Workplace canteen Women gained traffic share in total Workplace Vending The year olds gained share in the Workplace canteen Sandwiches and Fries are the most important food items in the workplace Salad was the best performing item and Fruit performed the worst in the Workplace Coffee and Tea are the top two drinks in the Workplace Juice suffered the strongest decline in the Workplace Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
96
Commercial outperformed the Workplace YE Sep 09 vs year ago
Components of Sales – YE Sep 09 Redundancies + Commercial competition + Homemade food Total Workplace Traffic -1% -5.0% Sales 2.770b to 2.631b -4.3% £2.664b to £2.548b Ave.Ind.Spend* +0.7% £0.96 to £0.97 Total Commercial Traffic -1% -1.9% Sales 8.733b to 8.570b -2.3% £42.466b to £41.480b Ave.Ind.Spend -0.5% £4.86 to £4.84 *includes free occasions Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Workplace suffered a sales decline over the past five quarters possibly caused by the increasing unemployment rate Workplace: Components of Spending - % Change vs. Year Ago Sales -2.6 -1.3 -7.1 -4.9 -4.1 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Business accounts for the lion share of workplace traffic
Total Workplace Traffic Distribution – YE Sep 09 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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When Consumed?
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The most important daypart lunch gained share
Total Workplace Traffic Distribution by Daypart Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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In Business late vending snack lost share
Business Traffic Distribution by Daypart Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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In Industry afternoon snack lost significant share in the Workplace canteen
Industry Traffic Distribution by Daypart Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Demographic Profile
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Women gained traffic share in Workplace Vending
Total Workplace Traffic Distribution by Gender Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Women gained significant traffic share in Business Vending
Business Traffic Distribution by Gender Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Men gained slight share in Industry
Industry Traffic Distribution by Gender Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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The 56-69 year olds gained share in the Workplace canteen
Total Workplace Traffic Distribution by Age Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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In Business the 55-69 gained traffic share
Business Traffic Distribution by Age Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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In Industry the 35-55 year olds gained share
Industry Traffic Distribution by Age Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
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Sandwiches and Fries are the most important food items in the workplace
Top 20 Food Items in Total Workplace: Incidence YE Sep 09 Incidence change Vs YA 0.3 0.1 0.6 1.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.4 -0.2 -1.5 0.0 -1.1 0.5 -0.6 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Incremental Servings (000)
Salad was the best performing item and Fruit performed the worst in the Workplace Total Workplace – Best/Worst Performing Food Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence change Incidence Incremental Servings (000) 6.5 2.2 3.4 1.4 1.8 1.7 2.1 2.3 3.1 Salad Beef Burger Jacket/Stuffed Potato Fried Fish Pizza Tea Biscuits/Scone Cake Non-Fried Vegetables Sandwich-Other Fruit 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.5 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
112
Coffee and Tea are the top two drinks in the Workplace
Top Beverage Items in Total Workplace: Incidence YE Sep 09 Incidence change Vs YA 2.5 0.2 0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1 -1.3 0.0 -0.9 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group / CREST
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Juice suffered the strongest decline in the Workplace
Total Workplace – Best/Worst Performing Beverage Items – YE Sep 09 vs YA Incidence Incidence change Incremental Servings (000) 19.7 0.5 7.5 5.1 2.2 4.0 Traditional Coffee Energy/Sports Drink Water-Tap Cola-Diet Hot Chocolate Juice 2.5 0.1 0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.3 Proprietary and confidential - for client use only Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
114
Consumer Visits to OOH Q3 09 Topline
CREST® Data Through September 2009
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