1. Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

2. Climate Change in the Heartland
Eugene S. Takle
Director, Climate Science Program
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
Heartland Regional Roundtable
Nutrient Management for Water Protection
in Highly Productive Systems of the Heartland 
Lied Center, Nebraska City
June 8-10, 2010

3. Outline Observed global changes in carbon dioxide and temperature
Projected future changes in global and US temperatures and precipitation
Future climate change for Iowa and the US Midwest

4. Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

6. Global Carbon Emissions (Gt)
Actual emissions are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 1990

7. Forcing Factors in the Global Climate
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

8. Increased Greenhouse Gases => Global Heating
Increasing greenhouse gases increases heating of the Earth
Increased Greenhouse Gases => Global Heating

9. Warming of the Lower and Upper Atmosphere Produced by Natural and Human Causes
Note that greenhouse gases have a unique temperature signature, with strong warming in the upper troposphere, cooling in the lower stratosphere and strong warming over the North Pole. No other warming factors have this signature.
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

10. Global Mean Surface Temperature

11. Global Mean Surface TemperatureI II
III IV

13. More environmentally friendly
Energy intensive
Balanced fuel sources
More environmentally friendly
If current emission trends continue, global temperature rise will exceed worst case scenarios projected in 2007
FI =fossil intensive
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

14. IPCC 2007

15. IPCC 2007

16. Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

17. IPCC 2007

18. IPCC 2007

19. Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

20. Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

21. “One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

22. Trend of increase in occurrence of heavy precipitation over the 20th C is consistent with increasing GHG concentrations.
Frequency of intense precipitation events is likely to increase in the future.
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

23. Necessary Adaptation Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

24. Farmers install more drainage tile
Necessary
Adaptation
Farmers install more drainage tile
Necessary
Adaptation
Possible
Mitigation
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

25. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Necessary
Adaptation
Necessary
Adaptation
Possible
Mitigation
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

26. Farmers plant earlier, choose longer season hybrids
The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Necessary
Adaptation
Farmers plant earlier, choose longer season hybrids
Necessary
Adaptation
Possible
Mitigation
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

27. Arctic Sea-Ice Decline

28. Decline in Greenland Ice Mass
Equivalent to about 5 ft of ice over the state of Iowa each year

29. Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

30. Insured Losses from Weather-Related Catastrophes
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

31. Temperature rises in regions having thunderstorms likely to experience increased occurrence of lightning
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

32. Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

33. Findings of the US National Assessment
Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced
Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow
Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase
Climate change will stress water resources
Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged
Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge
Risks to human health will increase
Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses
Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems
Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today

34. Observed Summer (JJA) Daily Maximum Temperature
Changes (K),
Adapted from Folland et al. [2001]

35. Des Moines Airport Data
1983: 13
1988: 10
2009: 0

36. 6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years
Des Moines Airport Data
1983: 13
1988: 10
6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years
2009: 0

37. State-Wide Average Data

38. State-Wide Average Data
37.5”
31.5”
19% increase

39. State-Wide Average Data
Totals above 40”

40. State-Wide Average Data
Totals above 40”
8 years
2 years

42. Cedar Rapids Data

43. Cedar Rapids Data
28.0”
32% increase
37.0”

44. Cedar Rapids Data
51% increase
11.8”
7.8”

45. Cedar Rapids Data
34% increase
20.2”
26.8”

46. “One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

47. Cedar Rapids Data
57% increase
6.6 days
4.2 days

48. Years having more than 8 days
Cedar Rapids Data
Years having more than 8 days 11 2
57% increase
6.6 days
4.2 days

49. SWAT (RegCM2):
21 % increase in precip -> 50% increase in streamflow
Relationship of Streamflow to Precipitation in Current and Future Climates
DrainMod (RegCM2):
24 % increase in precip -> 35% increase in tile drainage
DrainMod (HIRHAM):
32 % increase in precip -> 80% increase in tile drainage

50. 13% increase
es = mb
es = mb
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

51. State-Wide Average Data

52. Des Moines Airport Data
2010
2009

53. Des Moines Airport Data
Average : 3.2 days/yr
2010
2009

54. Des Moines Airport Data
Caution: Not adjusted for possible urban influence
Average : 3.2 days/yr
2010
2009

55. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Temperature
Longer frost-free period (high)
Higher average winter temperatures (high)
Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short term but more in long term (medium)
Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)
More freeze-thaw cycles (high)
Increased temperature variability (high)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive
*Estimated from IPCC reports

56. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Precipitation
More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium)
Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high)
More water-logging of soils (medium)
More variability of summer precipitation (high)
More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)
Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high)
Stronger storm systems (medium)
More winter soil moisture recharge (medium)
Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but decreases in the long run (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive
*Estimated from IPCC reports

57. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Other
Reduced wind speeds (high)
Reduced solar radiation (medium)
Increased tropospheric ozone (high)
Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high)
Phenological stages are shortened (high)
Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2 (high)
Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicides (high)
Plants have increased water used efficiency (high)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive
*Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports

58. Iowa Agricultural Producers’ Adaptations to Climate Change
Longer growing season: plant earlier, plant longer season hybrids, harvest later
Wetter springs: larger machinery enables planting in smaller weather windows
More summer precipitation: higher planting densities for higher yields
Wetter springs and summers: more subsurface drainage tile is being installed, closer spacing, sloped surfaces
Fewer extreme heat events: higher planting densities, fewer pollination failures
Higher humidity: more spraying for pathogens favored by moist conditions. more problems with fall crop dry-down, wider bean heads for faster harvest due to shorter harvest period during the daytime.
Drier autumns: delay harvest to take advantage of natural dry-down conditions
Is it genetics or climate? Likely some of each.
HIGHER YIELDS!!

59. Successful Farming Jan 2010
Dan Looker

60. For More Information Or just Google Eugene Takle Contact me directly:
Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State University under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website:
Or just Google Eugene Takle