1. Structure of Public Opinion in Venezuela
Since the Urban Riots of February 1989

2. Measurement of Public Opinion in Venezuela
Sample size
Regional measurement
Class
Other technical problems

3. Eve of the Second Inauguration of C.A. Perez (January 1989)
Concern with rising level of abstention
Support for the established political parties AD
COPEI
MAS
Support for the Punto Fijo system

4. Eve of the Second Inauguration of C.A. Perez (January 1989)
Issues that mattered most to Venezuelans
Unemployment
Inflation
Education
Personal security

5. Public Opinion in the aftermath of the February 4, 1992 coup attempt
Attitudes toward coups
Attitude toward traditional parties
Attitude toward the policies of the CAP government
Attitude toward democracy
Democracy yes
A different democracy

6. Public Opinion and the 1993 presidential elections
View of AD
View of COPEI
Andres Valesquez and Causa R
History of Causa R
Anti-system alternative viewed with suspicion by 4 in 5 respondents
Why Caldera won?
Still loyalty to democratic system
Anti-system alternative raised levels of insecurity
Personal status and prestige

7. Public Opinion and the Triumph of Hugo Chavez
AD suffers from Luis Alfaro’s support of Caldera’s neo-liberal agenda
COPEI
1993 candidate View of COPEI
Luis Herrera image never recovered
Rise & Fall of Irene Saez.
Why Hugo Chavez won?
Lack of viable alternatives
Desire to punish AD & COPEI
Promises to end corruptions
Personal charisma

8. Mega-elections of July 30. 2000
Same attitudes that determined outcomes in December 1998 permeate electorate in 2000
AD retains allegiance in the interior, especially the “East”.
COPEI ceases to command the loyalty of a significant sector of the electorate.

9. Public Opinion and the Paro of December 2002/February 2003
Difficulties in measurement of public opinion
Support for Chavez stand at 27% at the beginning of strike
Support for Chavez passes 35% after two months of marches and shutdowns
No leader of the opposition attracts widespread support

10. Referendum: August 15, 2004
Opposition forces gains sufficient signatures to force a recall under constitution of 1999
Favorable opinion of President Chávez increases as economy improves
Revocatory referendum fails by a margin of 6 – 4.

11. Current Attitude Toward President Chávez
Favorable attitude toward the president fell from the high 60% to high 40% between December 2006 & December 2007
No opposition leader’s rate of approval ascends into double digits
Many Venezuelans are in the “ni” – “ni” camp in terms of their political preferences