1. Session 4.1. Situation Analysis Step 5 Chronic & Transitory Food Insecurity

2. Learning objectives
After this session, participants should be able to:
Explain the meaning of – and key differences between – chronic and transitory food insecurity
Identify – and explain the key differences between – structural and dynamic risk factors, and their impact on the type of food insecurity present in the assessed population
Explain the influence of resilience vs. vulnerability in assessing whether or not a population group will recover from food insecurity

3. Where are we? EFSA Process Adapt conceptual framework & objectives
Prepare analysis plan: indicators, data, sources
Collect, review secondary data
Collect primary data
Conduct situation analysis
Conduct forecast analysis
Analyse response options
Make response recommendations
Prepare report

4. “Long term” versus “Short term” = duration
Definition
Chronic food insecurity: “incapacity to cover minimum food needs in the long term” (FIVIMS 2002)
Transitory food insecurity: “temporary incapacity to cover food needs” (WFP 2005)
“Long term” versus “Short term” = duration

5. Time dimension analysis of food insecurity requires:
Determination of current food security situation:
Identification of structural risk factors: chronic
vs. dynamic risk factors: transitory
Estimation of capacity to recover from the crisis, and to prevent or mitigate future crises
Estimation of duration of the food insecurity:
Compare with past (situation before current crisis)
Anticipate future (evolution of situation and likely effects of future crises

6. Structural & dynamic causes of food insecurity
Structural variables:
Age, sex, education level, climate, type of soil, government system, inter-ethnic relationships, etc.
Dynamic variables:
Occurrence of natural disasters, diseases, displacement, changes in market functioning, employment fluctuations, level of harvest, and others
Structural variables: relate to the underlying features of individuals, or of the society and area in which they live. They do not change quickly, and therefore indicate chronic (permanent) issues. As with Step 4, the contextual information can be used to answer this question.
Dynamic variables: relate to features that can change quickly. They tend to be indicators of transitory problems, which may exacerbate existing chronic problems
Given the long-term nature of the economic and environmental degradation, the problem is essentially chronic.
The sporadic upsurges of conflict indicate a transitory element to the crisis.
The high levels of acute malnutrition indicate either transitory shocks, or rapid deterioration of the chronic situation. Children could not sustain these levels of malnutrition for long. Data on mortality rates is insufficient to confirm this hypothesis, but pre-crisis information shows a lower prevalence of acute malnutrition; therefore the current results cannot be solely attributed to chronic problems.
A possible explanation for the system could, therefore, be posited as follows:
The area is affected by chronic socio-economic deterioration. The economy is changing gradually but profoundly and there is no likelihood of a “quick fix” (land degradation, government policy, and corruption are structural issues).
Within the context of chronic deterioration, there are transitory shocks; for example, upsurges of fighting.
Certain families probably reach a “tipping point”, at which their livelihoods finally collapse after years of strain. This might occur when, for example, the last animal is sold, or the migrant husband ceases to send remittances. Such a tipping point might explain the existence of acute malnutrition (and risks to lives) in an area primarily characterised by gradual change.
These hypotheses constitute real causes for concern. If they are correct, the number currently at risk to lives (23% of under-5s) is likely to increase, as more households reach the “tipping point”. 6 6

7. Time dimension & severity of food insecurity

8. Negative synergies between chronic & transitory food insecurity
Transitory Chronic:
repeated crises can lead households towards chronic food insecurity
Moderate chronic Severe chronic:
Households in chronic food insecurity are more vulnerable to deterioration due to crisis, compared to those who are in transitory food insecurity

9. Impact of crises (1): resilient households
Exposure to shocks

10. Summary: what to analyse to distinguish chronic/transitory food insecurity?
Current food security situation
Resilience - recovery capacity: for example by livelihood groups
Factors related to food insecurity: are they structural or dynamic/temporary?
Frequency of crises – Do HHs have means to recover before another crisis occurs?

11. Structural causes of chronic food insecurity?
And in your countries?
Structural causes of chronic food insecurity?
Please identify and be prepared to present your list to the plenary group.