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Heather Simon, Kirk Baker, Norm Possiel, Pat Dolwick, Brian Timin

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Presentation on theme: "Heather Simon, Kirk Baker, Norm Possiel, Pat Dolwick, Brian Timin"— Presentation transcript:

1 Model Resolution and Ozone Sensitivity to NOx Emissions Changes in in the Northeastern US
Heather Simon, Kirk Baker, Norm Possiel, Pat Dolwick, Brian Timin Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US EPA Acknowledgements: Nancy Hwang, Chris Allen, Darrell Ensley, Cliff Stanley, Chris Misenis

2 Look at case study of the Northeastern US at 12 and 4km resolutions
Model Set-up CMAQv5.0.1 (AER06) WRFv3.3, MCIPv4.1.2, USGS land use Meteorology run separately at 12km and 4 km resolutions 25 layers April-October 2007 IC/BC from 12US2 CONUS CMAQ simulation 4 model simulations 12NE base 12km resolution 2007 emissions developed for the PM NAAQS RIA 12NE 50NOx 2007 with 50% cut in NE anthropogenic NOx emissions 4NE base 4km resolution 2007 emissions 4NE 50NOx NE domain

3 Analyses 4km vs 12km changes in monthly mean MDA8 ozone
Ozone changes on example days Examine ozone response at specific monitoring locations

4 4km vs 12km changes in monthly mean MDA8 ozone

5 Seasonal Variation in Monthly Mean MDA8 O3
April May July 4 km 12 km

6 Seasonal Variation in Change in Monthly Mean MDA8 O3 50NOx - base
April May July 4 km 12 km

7 Daily 8-h maximum Ozone changes on example days

8 O3 changes and indicator ratios on example days
Selection of Example Days Two summer season days were chosen during the summer of 2007 based on moderate to high regional ozone concentrations and relatively good model performance at 7 NY area sites: May 31 and August 25 (other days shown in “extra slides”)

9 8-hr daily maximum O3 4km base 12km base May 31, 2007 4km – 12km

10 8-hr daily maximum O3 4km base 12km base May 31, 2007 4km – 12km

11 May 31, 2007 8-hr daily maximum O3 4km base 12km base 12km 4km
50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

12 Locations with absolute changes > 2ppb in opposite directions
May 31, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

13 8-hr daily maximum O3 4km base 12km base Aug 25, 2007 4km – 12km

14 8-hr daily maximum O3 4km base 12km base Aug 25, 2007 4km – 12km

15 Aug 25, 2007 8-hr daily maximum O3 4km base 12km base 4km 12km
50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

16 Locations with absolute changes > 2ppb in opposite directions
Aug 25, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

17 Examine ozone response at specific monitoring locations

18 Aggregated across all days and all sites in the NE domain, 12km and 4km responses look similar

19 Examine ozone response at specific monitoring locations in the NY area
Upwind site: Flemington, NJ NOx titration zone: Bayonne, NJ IS 52 (Bronx), NY Babylon, NY (sometimes) Downwind sites: Holtsville, NY White Plains, NY Sherwood Island, CT

20 Flemington, NJ

21 Flemington NJ: Response in 8-h Daily Max Ozone to 50% NOx cut
By Month By Ozone Conc

22 Flemington NJ: Time Series

23 IS 52 (Bronx), NY

24 Bronx NY: Response in 8-h Daily Max Ozone to 50% NOx cut
By Month By Ozone Conc

25 Holtsville, NY

26 Holtsville NY: Response in 8-h Daily Max Ozone to 50% NOx cut
By Month By Ozone Conc

27 Small Differences in Absolute Response (ppb) may be important for design values
Holtsville: Difference of 0.04 in 12km vs 4km RRF DV = 86 Leads to > 3ppb difference in projected DV Sherwood Island: DV = 87

28 Summary 4km and 12km resolution simulation show similar spatial and temporal patterns for ozone and ozone response Lower ozone and more disbenefits in cooler months More disbenefits over highly urbanized areas of NYC, Boston, and Baltimre/D.C. At specific times and locations, response can vary substantially between the two simulations Larger ozone disbenefits in response to 50% NOx cuts can be seen in either the 4km or 1k2m simulation at specific times and locations Differences between 4km and 12km resolution simulations could lead to differences in projected design values by over 3 ppb

29 Extra Plots

30 May 31, 2007 Difference in absolute MDA8 ozone benefits: 4km-12km
Orange = larger benefits in 4km sim Green = smaller benefits in 4km sim May 31, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

31 May 31, 2007 Difference in absolute MDA8 ozone dibenefits: 4km-12km
Orange = larger disbenefits in 4km sim Green = smaller disbenefits in 4km sim May 31, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

32 May 31, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 4km H2O2/HNO3 H2O2/HNO3
Transition point = 0.035 (Sillman, 1995) FORM/NOY Transition point = 0.28 (Zhang et al, 2009) O3/NOy Transition point = 3.5 Zhang et al, 2009 recommend 7-15 4km FORM/NOY 4km O3/NOY

33 4km base 12km base June 25, 2007 4km – 12km

34 4km base 12km base June 25, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

35 June 25, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 4km H2O2/HNO3 H2O2/HNO3
Transition point = 0.035 (Sillman, 1995) FORM/NOY Transition point = 0.28 (Zhang et al, 2009) O3/NOy Transition point = 3.5 Zhang et al, 2009 recommend 7-15 O3/NOy Transition point = 7 (Zhang et al, 2009) 4km FORM/NOY 4km O3/NOY

36 Locations with absolute changes > 2ppb in opposite directions
June 25, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

37 June 25, 2007 Difference in absolute MDA8 ozone benefits: 4km-12km
Orange = larger benefits in 4km sim Green = smaller benefits in 4km sim June 25, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

38 June 25, 2007 Difference in absolute MDA8 ozone disbenefits: 4km-12km
Orange = larger disbenefits in 4km sim Green = smaller disbenefits in 4km sim June 25, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

39 4km base 12km base July 17, 2007 4km – 12km

40 4km base 12km base July 17, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

41 July 17, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 4km H2O2/HNO3 H2O2/HNO3
Transition point = 0.035 (Sillman, 1995) FORM/NOY Transition point = 0.28 (Zhang et al, 2009) O3/NOy Transition point = 3.5 Zhang et al, 2009 recommend 7-15 O3/NOy Transition point = 7 (Zhang et al, 2009) 4km FORM/NOY 4km O3/NOY

42 Locations with absolute changes > 2ppb in opposite directions
July 17, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

43 July 17, 2007 Difference in absolute MDA8 ozone benefits: 4km-12km
Orange = larger benefits in 4km sim Green = smaller benefits in 4km sim July 17, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

44 July 17, 2007 Difference in absolute MDA8 ozone disbenefits: 4km-12km
Orange = larger disbenefits in 4km sim Green = smaller disbenefits in 4km sim July 17, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

45 4km base 12km base Aug 8, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

46 Aug 8, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 4km H2O2/HNO3 H2O2/HNO3
Transition point = 0.035 (Sillman, 1995) FORM/NOY Transition point = 0.28 (Zhang et al, 2009) O3/NOy Transition point = 7 (Zhang et al, 2009) O3/NOy Transition point = 3.5 Zhang et al, 2009 recommend 7-15 4km O3/NOY 4km FORM/NOY

47 4km base 12km base Aug 8, 2007 4km – 12km

48 Locations with absolute changes > 2ppb in opposite directions
Aug 8, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

49 Aug 8, 2007 Difference in absolute MDA8 ozone benefits: 4km-12km
Orange = larger benefits in 4km sim Green = smaller benefits in 4km sim Aug 8, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

50 Aug 8, 2007 Difference in absolute MDA8 ozone disbenefits: 4km-12km
Orange = larger disbenefits in 4km sim Green = smaller disbenefits in 4km sim Aug 8, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

51 Aug 25, 2007 Difference in absolute MDA8 ozone benefits: 4km-12km
Orange = larger benefits in 4km sim Green = smaller benefits in 4km sim Aug 25, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

52 Aug 25, 2007 Difference in absolute MDA8 ozone disbenefits: 4km-12km
Orange = larger disbenefits in 4km sim Green = smaller disbenefits in 4km sim Aug 25, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 12km 50NOx -base

53 Aug 25, 2007 4km 50NOx -base 4km H2O2/HNO3 H2O2/HNO3
Transition point = 0.035 (Sillman, 1995) FORM/NOY Transition point = 0.28 (Zhang et al, 2009) O3/NOy Transition point = 3.5 Zhang et al, 2009 recommend 7-15 O3/NOy Transition point = 7 (Zhang et al, 2009) 4km FORM/NOY 4km O3/NOY

54 IS 52 (Bronx), NY

55 Bronx NY: Time Series

56 Bayonne, NJ

57 Bayonne, NJ: Response in 8-h Daily Max Ozone to 50% NOx cut
By Month By Ozone Conc

58 Bayonne NJ: Time Series

59 Babylon, NY

60 Babylon NY: Response in 8-h Daily Max Ozone to 50% NOx cut
By Month By Ozone Conc

61 Babylon NY: Time Series

62 Holtsville, NY

63 Holtsville NY: Time Series

64 White Plains, NY

65 White Plains NY: Response in 8-h Daily Max Ozone to 50% NOx cut
By Month By Ozone Conc

66 White Plains NY: Time Series

67 Sherwood Island, CT

68 Sherwood Island CT: Response in 8-h Daily Max Ozone to 50% NOx cut
By Month By Ozone Conc

69 Sherwood Island CT: Time Series

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