1. Wales Futures Network Network Launch and International Conference
“Making Futures Matter”
7 February 2007

2. A Sustainable Future for Wales
Jim Poole
Cynnal Cymru

3. A Sustainable Future for Wales
How we might get there
What it might look like

5. Currently
Policy Adviser at Cynnal Cymru – the Sustainable Development Forum for Wales
Visiting Professor in School of Engineering at Cardiff University
… on secondment from Environment Agency Wales
I am a biologist by training – but engineer friendly

6. Previously – Sewage Scientist

7. Indicator Organisms

8. Simple Tests

9. Relate plant performance to the organisms present

10. Now – Taking the Overview

11. Relate the world to people’s personal experience

12. A Sustainable Wales
How might we get there?

13. Sustainable Development Brundtland Definition: “Development which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”

14. Sustainable Development as a Process The UK SD Strategy 1999 “A better quality of life”

15. UK SD Strategy 1999
“A better quality of life”

16. The UK SD Strategy 1999 Four Objectives:
Social progress which recognises the needs of everyone
Effective protection of the environment
Prudent use of natural resources
High and stable levels of economic growth and employment

17. A Model for Sustainability
The "Four-legged Table"
A Model for Sustainability
Env Ec
Soc
Nat Res

18. Objective
Level table …
… at the right height

19. A Model for Sustainability
The "Four-legged Table"
A Model for Sustainability
Quality
of Life
Env Ec
Soc
Nat Res

20. Step 1
Setting the Vision

23. "Imagination is more important than knowledge
"Imagination is more important than knowledge. It is a preview of life's forthcoming attractions“ (Albert Einstein)

24. Setting the Vision (1) Involve: Stakeholders (so the vision is fair)
Technical experts (so the vision is sound)

25. Setting the Vision (2) Recognise: Trends in the state of the planet
Trends in people’s values
The context within which the vision is developed

26. Step 1: Setting the Vision
Above all, recognise:
Environmental problems …
… are caused by people
The challenge is to change people’s behaviour …
… in partnership with them

27. Step 2
Achieving the Vision

28. The "Four-legged Table"
Attacking the Gap
Current Position

29. Attacking the Gap Start with the Vision Assess the current situation
Attack the gap

30. “All policies, programmes and projects must address all four legs of the table”

31. Benefits of this approach
Increases awareness of SD
People appreciate full implications of their plans
Maximum sustainability built into projects
Provides a common appraisal framework

32. The nature of decision making

33. Data-rich approach

34. Actor-rich approach

35. Actor-rich Approach Preferred
People bring data in their heads
Including what is possible, not simply what has happened
Fosters integration of ideas and mindsets

36. The Challenge for SD Not simply to balance: The Economy Society
The Environment …

37. The Challenge for SD … but to amalgamate: Economics Social Science
Environmental Science

38. UK SD Framework March 2005
“One future – different paths”

39. One Future – Different Paths
Similar goals to Better Quality of Life, but Economic perspective changed:
A sustainable, innovative and productive economy that delivers high levels of employment

40. Cynnal Cymru Offices Cardiff

41. Cynnal Cymru Objectives: Promote SD Catalyst for change towards SD
Act as a forum for SD

42. Cynnal Cymru Form our opinion through debate between: “Experts”
“Lay people”

43. Cynnal Cymru
Use our opinion to influence:
Government
The public

44. Cynnal Cymru Influencing Government:
Our response to “Wales: A Vibrant Economy” (WAVE)

46. Cynnal Cymru Response to WAVE
Criticised WAVE:
Inappropriate development model (“Competitive Region”)
Ignored climate change
Failed to present a tangible Vision for a Future Wales

47. An alternative sustainable development philosophy for Wales

48. Alternative SD Philosophy (1)
Understands that society and its economy are wholly dependent upon the environment but not vice versa and treats the loss of irreplaceable resources for economic use appropriately
Accepts both the intrinsic and economic importance of those natural resources

49. Alternative SD Philosophy (2)
Is mainly local and community-led in production, consumption, work and leisure
Does not rely solely on markets to attach long-term value to irreplaceable resources
Has a higher level of public sector involvement in economic life than is currently the case, for example in the management of resources

50. Alternative SD Philosophy (3)
Actively plans and regulates current socio-economic activity for a low-carbon future
Values improvements in welfare for lower income groups more than increases in overall wealth

51. Alternative SD Philosophy (4)
Attracts and retains people who empathise with the ethical stance that the philosophy adopts to social and economic benefit
Measures welfare improvements in absolute, not relative terms

52. A View of the Future (Inappropriate)
Now
Future

53. A View of the Future (Appropriate)
Now
Future

54. A View of the Future (Appropriate)
sustainwales.com

57. A Sustainable Wales
What might it look like?

58. Three Case Studies Taff Bargoed Park My back yard
North Wales Tidal Impoundment

59. Taff Bargoed Park
Europe’s largest constructed reed bed for treating waste mine water

60. Settling Pond
Reed Bed

61. Canoeing Centre

62. Reminder of the Coal Mines

65. Case Study
My Back Yard

66. My Back Yard

67. My Back Yard
Prop up broken fence to deal with storm damage, January 2007
Compost bin to reduce production of methane (greenhouse gas)
Rosemary bush suited to Mediterranean climate

68. Compost Bin
£25
Market in Wales: £25m?

69. Proposed Tidal Impoundment off the Coast of Rhyl, North Wales
Case Study
Proposed Tidal Impoundment off the Coast of Rhyl, North Wales

70. Proposed Location – Indicative

71. Tidal Impoundment – Operation
Step 1: Build up head inside the impoundment by water level falling outside from high tide to low tide T

72. Tidal Impoundment – Operation
Step 2: Generate electricity by emptying impoundment from high tide level to low tide level T

73. Tidal Impoundment – Operation
Step 3: Build up head outside impoundment by water rising from low tide to high tide T

74. Tidal Impoundment – Operation
Step 4: Generate electricity by filling impoundment from low tide level to high tide level T

75. Context for North Wales Impoundment
The global picture
The local area
UK SD framework and energy policy

76. Global Context Climate change Rising sea level
Run-down in supplies of oil and gas
Increased use of renewable energy

77. Local Area Victorian seaside resorts – “faded glamour”
Rhyl contains one of the most deprived electoral wards in Wales
Sea wall breached in 1990 (Towyn Floods)

83. Towyn
1990

84. Towyn
1990

85. Towyn – Strengthened Defences

86. Energy Review 2006 Tidal Impoundment Schemes:
Potential to make significant contribution to carbon reductions
But generally not competitive
Interested in improving understanding of tidal resource

87. The "Four-legged Table"
Attacking the Gap

88. Cap’n Noahs
Meeting place for North Wales Coast Renewability Trust

89. Potential Uses Power generation Coastal protection
Recreational boating
Marina facilities
Enhancing biodiversity (“atoll”)

90. Blyth – Power Generation

91. Blyth – Energy Research

92. Barry – Recreational Boating

93. Swansea Marina

94. Biodiversity

95. Size and Positioning Options
Offshore
Onshore
Demonstration

96. Offshore
Minimum visual impact
River Clwyd

97. Onshore
Response to rising sea levels
Doubles as a sea defence

98. Part of a wider regeneration scheme
Demonstration
Part of a wider regeneration scheme

99. Demonstration - Details
Visitor Centre
Marina
Pier
Tramway

100. Demonstration Scheme

101. Tidal Impoundment Reduces climate change: … through renewable energy
Combats climate change:
… through coastal protection

102. “Do Nothing” is not an option

103. Sustainable Development Revised Definition: “Development which meets present needs while striving equally to allow for the needs of future generations” North Wales Coastal Renewability Trust 2005 Conwy County Council 2005

104. … Please Contact