1. Tendency Surveys
Discussion

2. Russia
Business tendency surveys (BTS) or business climate surveys (BCS) with extensive coverage (by economic activity, ownership structure, region)
Adopts harmonized system, international practices
Confidence indicator for each sector anticipates well the economic activity of the sector
Extending to more services (as exemplified by pilot services surveys)

3. Ukraine
BTS well-established, conducted since 1997 and extended to non-financial services in 2010
Leading and coincident (synthetic) indicators compiled for each industry sector found to correlate well with the sector’s level of economic activity
Assessment of cyclical synthetic indicators can be related to Ifo segmentation approach

4. China
Introduces business climate survey as well as business climate index (BCI)
BCI based on net balance weighted by primary operating revenue and by value-added
Where sampling design is pps, weighting is not necessary
BCI found to correlate well with GDP, and can also be used to predict GDP

5. Hong Kong Successfully compiled composite leading index (CLI)
Uses GDP (instead of industrial production) as reference
Requires high frequency indicators of good quality
CLI includes one sentiment (tendency)-based indicator (which is PMI)

6. Lessons from Country Experiences
Large numbers of country papers reflect interest in and need for timely and reliable forward looking indicators
Despite being based on simple, qualitative information, data collected can be quantified through construction of diffusion or net balance indices
Indices based on tendency surveys often have leading properties and therefore included in composite leading or cyclical indices