1. Public Forum and Regional Workshop for the Asia-Pacific Region on
Measuring Investment in Infrastructure and Public Services Sectors: A data overview and data challenges
Kalman Kalotay
UNCTAD
Public Forum and Regional Workshop for the Asia-Pacific Region on
Phase 2 of the IIA Reform
organized Jointly by UNCTAD, the International Institute for Trade and development (ITD) and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Thailand, in collaboration with the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)
Bangkok, February 19-23, 2018

2. Contents Issues of PPP information in light of the SDGs
What PPP data can show
Conclusions for PPP stakeholders

3. Issues of PPP information in light of the SGDs

4. PPPs are common in two types of “infrastructure”
“Economic infrastructure”:
Electricity
Gas
Water and sewage
Transportation and storage
Telecommunications
“Soft infrastructure” or “public services”:
Education
Health and social services
Community, social and personal service activities
Public administration
Economic infrastructure is more frequently monitored

5. Why PPP data are important for sustainable development
PPPs are key to various SDG goals
SDG 17, Partnership
Plus goals related to economic infrastructure development, as well as education and health, especially:
SDG 3, Good Health and Well-being
SDG 4, Quality Education
SDG 6, Clear Water and Sanitation
SDG 7, Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 9, Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
SDG 11, Sustainable Cities and Communities (via PPPs in communal services)
If investment is low and stagnant, we cannot reach the goals

6. Major challenge: estimating needs and gaps
This challenge goes beyond data collection
Gaps: needs-actual (or projected/forecasted) investments
Data cover only actual investments
Estimating needs and projected values requires more than data collection:
Econometric modelling etc.

7. Estimates for investment gaps in infrastructure vary
Examples:
UNCTAD (2014): $0.81.7 trillion annual gap (power, transport, communications and water)
McKinsey (2016): $3.3 trillion annual global gap (power, transport, communications and water)
World Economic Forum (2013): $ 5 trillion annual global gap (power, transport, buildings and industrial, communication, agriculture, forestry, and water)
Note: UNCTAD also has estimates for health ($140 billion per annum) and education ($250 billion per annum)

8. Why the variation
Differences on underlying assumptions and projections for:
Economic growth
Policies
Technological changes
Scope of the sectors included
The treatment of difference between capital expenditure and other (operating) expenses

9. What PPP data can show

10. Most PPP data are outside the FDI universe that UNCTAD usually monitors
PPP universe includes:
FDI:
Equity joint ventures between public and private entities
Non-FDI:
Concessions, build-operate-transfer (BOT), design-build-operate (DBO) projects etc.
Management contracts
Leases
Affermage
UNCTAD FDI data focus more on the first part (FDI)→ may lead to partial information

11. FDI stock in selected sectors, 2015 (Billions of dollars and per cent)

12. Cross-border M&As in selected sectors, 20082017 (billions of dollars)

13. Cross-border M&As in selected sectors, 20082017 (billions of dollars)

14. Announced greenfield projects in selected sectors, 20082017 (billions of dollars)

15. Announced greenfield projects in selected sectors, 20082017 (billions of dollars)

16. Conclusion on FDI data
FDI in infrastructure is small, except in electricity and gas
FDI in public services is even smaller
No clear-cut growth over the past decade

17. World Bank PPI database
Commonly used for measuring investments in economic infrastructure
Fairly comprehensive and detailed:
7,195 infrastructure projects in 139 low- and middle-income countries, 19902016
Total value: $2,595 billion (public + private components)
Excludes soft infrastructure
Not fully exact in separating commitments and realizations
Stops reporting on countries that move to high income

21. Conclusion of PPI data
Waiting for a take-off of PPPs in infrastructure and public services
Concentration in few countries

22. Conclusions for PPP stakeholders

23. Data indicate a major gap and slow growth in almost all activities
PPP is particular laggard in soft infrastructure
Challenge for all stakeholders: timeliness of your discussion

24. Questions? Kalman.kalotay@unctad.org
Thank you
Questions?