1. Western Air Quality Study (WAQS) Intermountain Data Warehouse (IWDW)
Review of Emissions Projections for IWDW-WAQS 2011b platform future year modeling
WAQS Modeling Team
October 29, 2015
IWDW-WAQS Technical Committee Call

2. Emissions Projections Review Objectives and background
Review basin-level O&G emissions data available from IWDW-WAQS, EPA NEI, and other sources
2011
Future projection years
Technical Committee recommendation on O&G emissions data to use in 2011b future year projection modeling
Review summaries of state-level by species data for other emission source categories
Review schedule for future year modeling
Identify Technical Committee call/meeting time windows in late 2015 and early 2016

3. Western Basin Base and Future Year O&G VOC Emissions
3-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Phase II vs.. NEI2011v6 (NEI) O&G inventories for 3SAQS basins
Both inventories have base years as 2011
Future year plots labeled 2025: the 3SAQS projection year is 2020; the NEI projection year is 2025
VOC is mostly from surveyed (nonpoint) sources
Biggest differences in 2011 are in the Williston and Piceance Basins
Biggest differences in the projection year are in the D-J, Piceance, and Uinta Basins

4. Western Basin Base and Future Year O&G NOx Emissions
NOx is mixed between permitted (point) and surveyed (nonpoint) sources
Biggest differences in 2011 are in the S. San Juan, N. San Juan, and Williston Basins
Biggest differences in the projection year are in the Piceance, D-J, and S. San Juan Basins

5. Western Basin O&G Emissions Trends: Future - Base
Difference plots between the future and base years: O&G emissions trends for the 3SAQS and NEI
Other than the Piceance basin, the VOC trends for the 3SAQS and NEI inventories are in the same direction
Big differences in the VOC trends for D-J, Williston, and Piceance Basins
The NOx trends are mixed between the 3SAQS and NEI inventories
Big differences in the NOx trends in most basins

6. Denver-Julesburg Basin Inventories
Recent updates to the D-J Basin inventory by CDPHE and RAQC show significant differences with the NEI and 3SAQS inventories, particularly with the projected VOC emissions

7. Summary of IWDW-WAQS 2020 D-J Basin production estimates IWDW-WAQS 2020 estimate is lower than RAQC’s 2017 estimate of 143,656,174 bbl.
Metric
Gas production (MCF)
Oil production (bbl)
Well count
Spud count
Basin wide
565,433,216
98,638,590
38,466
1,725

8. 2011 vs Emissions
VOC CO
NOx
VOC
(no biogenics)

9. 2011 vs Emissions
PM2.5
SO2
NH3
CH4

10. 2011 vs Emissions
Methane
90% of the UT Area O&G CH4 is from pneumatic devices and dehydrators
97% of the CA Nonpoint CH4 is from landfills

11. 2011 vs Emissions
PM2.5
SO2
NH3
CH4
(no O&G)

12. 2011 vs Emissions
SO2
Big reductions from base to future in EGU Point SO2 in several states

13. 2018 vs Emissions
VOC CO
NOx
VOC
(no biogenics)

14. 2018 vs Emissions
PM2.5
SO2
NH3
CH4

15. 2018 vs Emissions
PM2.5
SO2
NH3
CH4
(no O&G)

16. WAQS Project Timeline Apr 2016 Jul 2015 2016 SEP-OCT 2011b CMAQ
Modeling
MAY-AUG
2014a WRF
DEC
2011b Platform Release
MAR
2025 Platform Release
DEC-FEB
2025 CMAQ and CAMx
JUL-AUG
2011b CAMx
Modeling
OCT-NOV
2011b MPE, 2025 SMOKE
Apr 2016
Jul
2015
2016
DEC 2015
Technical Comm Call: status of DW and modeling
SEP 2015
Technical Comm Meeting
Phase 2 SoW complete
JUL 2015
Technical Comm Call
mid-JAN 2016
Technical Comm Meeting: Review 2011b MPE
late FEB/early MAR 2016
Technical Comm Call or Meeting: Close out on Phase 2 deliverables
OCT 2015
Technical Comm Call: Emissions Projections