1. Market Cycles: Election Years
Eric Lane
Associate Manager, Finance Sector

2. Disclaimer My…… political philosophy …… political history
Why none of this matters

3. A Brief History of Time
How HAVE the markets performed during Presidential election years?

4. S&P 500: 1/1999 – 12/2007

5. The 4-year Cycle:

6. 2008 – A Different Kind of Election
Now onto the present……
2008 – A Different Kind of Election

7. The Iowa Electronic Market
Democrat or Republican

8. The Iowa Electronic Market
Democrat Nomination

9. Democrat President in 2008? Metals
Traditional Winners
Traditional Losers
Metals
Trade Regulations
Alternate Energy and Environmental Cleanup
Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae
Homebuilders
Oil and Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Insurance Providers
Defense

10. Big Pharma
PHLX Drug Index

11. PHLX Oil Services Index
Big Oil
PHLX Oil Services Index

12. Barack Obama (D)
Senator from Illinois

13. Policy Platform Cracking down on mortgage fraud
Helping homeowners avoid foreclosure
Middle Class Tax Relief
"Making Work Pay" credit
American Opportunity Tax credit
Retirement Security
Health Care Reform
Alternative Energy

14. Hillary Clinton (D)
Senator from New York

15. Policy Platform Ending the foreclosure crisis Stimulus Package
High-wage job growth
Health Care Reform
Leveling the Economic Playing Field
Strategic Energy Fund
Special Interest reform
Health Care
Trade

16. John McCain (R)
Senator from Arizona

17. Policy Platform Pro-Growth Tax Policy Social Security and Medicare
Keep tax rate low
Make permanent Bush income and investment tax cuts
Cut the corporate tax rate
Ban Internet and cell phone taxes
Social Security and Medicare
Trade
Health Care
Market-based energy reform

18. The Best Option?
Gridlock.