1. Poverty and Human Development: where do we go from here?
The Annual National Policy Dialogue 19 November 2009 POVERTY MONITORING GROUP

2. Poverty and Human Development: a snap shot
Pluses
Minuses
Relatively high growth
Slow poverty reduction
A fall in Unemployment
Primarily in small informal business with low earnings and productivity. High underemployment
Improved net secondary school enrolment, attendance and literacy (64% in 2001 to 66 % in 2007)
Slight drop in net primary enrolment since Risk of many youth being left behind
Continued drop in IMR & under-5 mortality
Drop in coverage of DPT-Hb3 (93% in 2004 to 83% in 2007),
Improvement in life expectancy (53 (m )& 56 (w))
High maternal mortality (births taking place at home remain high)
Improved food self-sufficiency. Drop in malnutrition
High prevalence of stunting
Drop in HIV prevalence
Downward trend in access to clean and safe water

3. Human Development: status and progress
Tanzania’s Relative Standing in HDI in Key Areas
comparison of relative progress in HDI

4. Slow Progress in poverty reduction
Poverty Line
Achievements
Targets
2000/01
2007
MKUKUTA (2010)
MDG (2015)
Basic Needs Poverty
Mainland
35.7
33.6
19.5
Rural
38.7
37.6 24
Urban
25.8
24.1
12.9
Food Poverty
18.7
16.6 11

5. off-track in achieving poverty reduction targets

6. Little change in consumption levels
Little change in consumption levels since 2001
Extremely low consumption levels
98% of Tanzanians consume less than Tsh 30,000 (2001 prices) and Tsh 58,000 in 2007 prices
80% consume less than Tsh 20,000 (38,600 in 2007 prices)

7. Per capita consumption by wealth
Wealth Quintile
2000/01
2007
% change
Poorest Quintile
3,978
3,895
-2%
2nd
6,551
6,660 2%
3rd
9,163
9,490 4%
4th
12,972
13,635 5%
Least Poor Quintile
26,056
27,836 7%
Tanzania Mainland
9,997
10,470

8. A physically weak population?
Caloric intake increased marginally since 2001
25% of the population do not consume enough to carryout even light work
50% do not consume enough to carryout heavy work

9. Malnutrition: Progress but still a concern
Stunting
(height-for-age below -2SD)
Underweight (weight-for-age below -2SD)
Wasting (weight-for-height below -2SD)
1999 Mainland
44.00%
29.50%
5.30%
Urban
26.1
20.7
5.9
Rural
47.8
31.4
5.2
2004/5 Mainland
38.00%
21.90%
2.90% 26
17.3
2.9
40.9 23

10. Some improvement in health, But:

11. Food self-sufficiency
Not a famine prone country. Food production can meet the demand (SSR=104%)
But several regions are food insecure: Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Lindi, Manyara, Mara, Mtwara, Shinyanga, Singida and Tabora (Rapid vulnerability survey (2008)
In total 20 districts have been identified as having food shortages in 2007/08, the lowest number since 2002/03

12. WHY POVERTY IS NOT DECLINING FAST?
Key issues
Underlying factors
Heavy reliance on agriculture for livelihood
75% of the population depends on agriculture. An increasing number of people has to share a smaller pie
Agriculture growth 4.4% during , while population growth over 3% in rural areas
Low productivity (and low income earning potential)
95% of food is grown under traditional rain –fed agriculture. Informal agricultural sector has growth from 37% of GDP to 40% since 1998
Over reliance on primary agriculture (limited or no value addition)
Low fertility soils, minimal use of productive farm inputs, pre- and post harvest crop losses
Weak rural infrastructure (irrigation, roads, electricity, marketing)
Barriers for private investments (business licensing, registration, import/export procedures )
Lack of opportunities elsewhere
Lack of education and skills prevents rural people from moving out agriculture to other lucrative sectors
Limited space for non-farm activities (knowledge, credit, marketing), specially for the poorest

13. Diversifying out of agriculture
Income from non-farm self-employment
Quintile
2000/01
2007
% hh
mean
% change
Poorest
36.2
10,853
46.0
10,891
0.4
2nd
43.5
14,662
51.7
22,253
51.8
3rd
43.9
21,912
54.3
43,894
100.3
4th
49.7
34,896
53.9
54,221
55.4
Least Poor
49.5
65,292
48.2
125,135
91.7
Dar es Salaam
46.9
81,850
51.0
108,053
32.0
Other urban
59,891
46.6
98,063
63.7
Rural
42.3
19,178
52.1
32,305
68.4
Tanzania Mainland
44.6
31,209
50.8
50,999
63.4

14. Can current education support this move?
Substantial gains in education. But quality of education and lack of skilled workers are becoming constraints
High pupil/teacher ratios (54:1)
Negative perception (school is useless/uninteresting, Dar 24%)
Falling cohort completion rate (78% in 2006 to 62.5% in 2008)
One in five pupils not attending school at any given time
Falling transition rate from Standard VII to Form 1 (67.5 % in 2006 to 51.6% in 2008)
Only a quarter of candidates pass basic mathematics at the Form 4 exam
Drop (26%) in the number of grads in technical and vocational education and training (BEST 2009)

15. Where do we go from here?
WAKE UP and THINK BIG

16. A Two Pronged Approach to long term development
GROWTH
EQUITY
PRIVATE SECTOR
PUBLIC SECTOR
PPP

17. Policy direction: Private sector led growth
Issue
Required Policy Actions
Inadequate private investment
Provide an enabling business environment: Remove barriers to private investment (simplifying business licensing, registration, import/export procedures)
Remove controls on ownership rights (land), NTBs such as customs and admin procedures
Address infrastructure issues (e.g. energy and transport)
Develop the financial market and credit culture
Improve quality of labour/public service
Maintain macroeconomic stability
Improve transparency/governance

18. Policy direction: Equity through rural development
Issue
Required Policy Actions
Low agricultural productivity
Developing markets
Provision of rural infrastructure (irrigation, rural roads, electricity, communications, and marketing facilities)
Provision of farm inputs (fertilizer, credit, seeds)
Address crop losses (storage, transport, packaging)
Promote the use of modern technology
Heavy reliance on agriculture
Promote non-farm activities/value addition
Facilitate migration out of agriculture to other sectors through education, skills development and urban planning

19. Policy direction: Equity through provision of basic services
Issue
Required Policy Actions
Inadequate access to basic services
Improve access to basic services such as health and education services, water and sanitation
Inadequate social safety nets
Targeted social safety nets for the vulnerable
Inadequate attention on cross-cutting issues
Mainstream gender and environment into the national development agenda
High population growth
Interventions to reduce fertility rate, education, empowerment of women and effectively implementing the National Population Policy

20. Thank you