1. WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Paul Desmond, President
Lowry Research Corporation

2. THE HISTORY OF BEAR MARKETS
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1987
1990
1994
1998
2002
2008
20??
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50% ?
-60%

3. 1929 DJIA losses not recovered until 1955
1962 losses set prices back to 1958
decline set prices back 13 years
bear market cut portfolios in half.
losses set S&P 500 back 15 years

5. WE’VE BEEN DEALING WITH THE APPROACH OF BEAR MARKETS FOR MORE THAN A HUNDRED YEARS, WHY DON’T WE HAVE SOME BETTER ANSWERS?

6. THE CAUSES ARE ALWAYS CHANGING
CAUSE AND EFFECT
THE CAUSES ARE ALWAYS CHANGING
THE EFFECTS ARE
AMAZINGLY CONSISTENT

7. The LAW of
SUPPLY and DEMAND

8. “The Law of Supply and Demand is the Foundation …..
Chapter One of Virtually Every Economics Textbook states,
“The Law of Supply and Demand is the Foundation …..
…..the Starting Point…..
of ALL economic analysis.”

9. THE LAW OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
If there is more Demand for a commodity than there is a Supply of that commodity, the price Will Rise.

10. THE LAW OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
If there is a greater Supply of a commodity than there is a Demand for it, the price Will Fall.

11. THE LAW OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
ONLY DEALS WITH EFFECTS
COMPLETELY IGNORES CAUSES

12. SUPPLY AND DEMAND
IS A
UNIVERSAL LANGUAGE

13. AT EVERY MARKET TOP,
FIRST, DEMAND BEGINS TO FADE, CAUSING PRICES TO WEAKEN.
SECOND, WEAKENED PRICES CAUSE SUPPLY TO EXPAND.

15. SELECTIVITY AT MAJOR MARKET TOPS
TOP DAY % % AT OR < 2% % OFF 20% % OFF 30%
FOR DJIA NEW HIGHS OF NEW HIGHS OR MORE OR MORE
09/03/ %
LOWRY RESEARCH

16. SELECTIVITY AT MAJOR MARKET TOPS
TOP DAY % % AT OR < 2% % OFF 20% % OFF 30%
FOR DJIA NEW HIGHS OF NEW HIGHS OR MORE OR MORE
09/03/ % % % %
LOWRY RESEARCH

18. IN 1927 TWO BANKERS FROM CLEVELAND TRUST DEVELOPED THE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE

19. 1928

20. 1929

21. 1961
1962

22. 1972
1973

23. Dow Jones Industrial Average
1987
NYSE Advance-Decline Line

24. 1999
2000

25. 2007

26. THE KEY TO DETECTING MAJOR MARKET TOPS IS TO OBSERVE SIGNS OF INCREASINGLY EXTREME SELECTIVITY.
LOWRY RESEARCH

29. MARKETS ARE NOT HOMOGENEOUS.
A SINGLE “ALL-ISSUES” ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE HIDES A GREAT AMOUNT OF IMPORTANT INFORMATION.
LOWRY RESEARCH

34. SMALL-CAP BREADTH USUALLY WEAKENS FIRST . . .
THEN MID-CAP BREADTH BEGINS TO WEAKEN . . .
BIG-CAP BREADTH IS VIRTUALLY ALWAYS THE LAST TO WEAKEN.
LOWRY RESEARCH

35. SO, WHERE ARE WE NOW?
LOWRY RESEARCH

42. IN CONCLUSION….

43. BASED ON THE 88 YEAR HISTORY OF THE LOWRY ANALYSIS, THE PROBABILITIES FAVOR AT LEAST ANOTHER SIX MONTHS OF FURTHER GAINS BEFORE THE FINAL HIGHS IN THE DJIA AND S&P 500 (BIG-CAP) INDEXES SEPT. 25, 2017
LOWRY RESEARCH

44. BUT, NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY CULL STOCKS AS THEY STOP PARTICIPATING IN THE UPTREND……
INITIALLY REINVESTING IN STRONG LARGER-CAP STOCKS……
AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN BUILDING A HEAVILY DEFENSIVE STRATEGY.

45. If You Would Like A Copy of
If You Would Like A Copy of “The Warning Signs of Major Market Tops” …Just Drop Off Your Business Card….. Or,