1. Ava Dejoie Louisiana Workforce Commission
Louisiana Long-term and Short-term Employment Projections and Star Jobs Overview
Ava Dejoie
Louisiana Workforce Commission

2. Process Overview: Occupational Forecast & Star-Rating System
Occupational projections
Updated annually upon receipt of new employment data
Two-step process:
Projections by Industry
Projections by Occupation
Star-Rating system
Updated annually based on new demand projections, wage data, and openings data
Ratings by Occupation
Data Based on Census of all Employers in Louisiana.

3. Methodology: Industry Projections
94 distinct industries in each RLMA (statewide + 8 regions  846 total)
2 forecasts per industry-region: short-term (2017) & long-term (2024)
Produce baseline statistical model projections, using historical data and Projections Suite software
Review and refine baseline projections:
Analyze prevailing economic trends: develop & evaluate several alternative candidate models
Contact Louisiana driver firms and incorporate their comments (additional input from industry associations and regional economic development organizations)
Incorporate economic development initiatives and major announcements including expansions and layoffs
Include macro economic variables like GDP, Inflation, exchange rate fluctuations,

4. Example of Simple Statistical Modeling Post-Katrina
Food Industry Forecasts – Could ne technical and dropped

5. Example Where Statistical Models Struggle
Auto Industry Forecasts – Could be technical and dropped
Fine tuning these forecasts rely on additional information including Industry inputs, driver firms interviews and regional workforce development board

6. Key Points Good statistical models should always be the starting point
Forecasts are always a mix of science and judgment
Louisiana has numerous exogenous shocks that are large relative to industry size, which make life harder
In some sectors, local knowledge trumps statistical models
Hurricane Katrina, Rita, Ike, BP Oil Spill to name a few. Rely on local knowledge on emerging sectors in regions

7. How Important are Driver Firms?
2% of LA businesses
have 100 or more employees
Employ over 44% of LA workers
Contribute $4.67 billion in direct wages
Create total Louisiana Sales of $61.89 billion
Large firms are more likely to generate funds from outside LA that support the local economy
Don’t ignore small firms!
Make sure core and secondary industries in each region are represented, small industries’ input also included through inputs of their associations and chambers of commerce.

8. Converting: Industry to Occupation
Staffing Patterns
Mix of occupations in each industry
Based on recent historical data specific to LA regions
Change Factors
How proportion of occupation relative to entire industry changes over time
Replacement Rates
Attrition rate, due to retirement or permanently leaving job for any reason
Staffing Patterns: Through a survey of all employers in Louisiana which has a 85% response rate. Each industries’ staffing pattern on how many accountants, how many IT professionals and how many maintenance workers work are required is gathered.
Change Factors: Incorporates some occupations that are not needed anymore (typists – 20 years ago was needed everywhere and now almost not needed, data scientists – 10 years ago we did not have such an occupation but with the advent of big data this occupation now is growing at a much faster pace compared to the rest).

9. Augmenting Data Sources: Change Factors
HWC Reports
Increase for Primary Care and Mid-level providers
Increasing role of IT in healthcare
LA State Board of Nursing
Registered Nurse license and survey data
LED announcements and firm engagement
Planned expansions/ relocations that will impact staffing ratios of relevant industries in upcoming years
Continued theme of increasing importance of IT professionals
Driver Firm interviews

10. Augmenting Data Sources: Replacement Rates
WARN (Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification) and Pre-WARN Notices
Healthcare Occupations:
Health Works Survey, 2012 & 2013
LA State Board of Nursing license data
Specialty Trade Contractors/ Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction:
Alliance Safety Council annual training data
SW LA Construction Users Council (SLCUC) data on age profile of existing craft workforce
Other Occupations
Driver firm interviews

11. Augmenting Data Sources: Regional Stakeholder Inputs
The following organizations contributed by providing driver firm contacts, data, or reviewing forecasts and providing feedback
ABC
BRAC
WDB 40
AFL-CIO
CLEDA
WDB 41
GBRIA
GNO Inc
WDB 61
LABI
LEDA
LABSWE
LCA
NELEA
LSBN
LED
NLEP
LSBME
LHA
One Acadiana
LSBOE
LMOGA
SWLA EDA
LSBPNE

12. Occupational Forecast Summary
Short-Term Occupation through 2017
Average Annual Job Growth 17,686
Average Annual Replacement Demand: 51,218
Total Annual Demand: 68,904
Long-Term Occupation through 2024
Average Annual Total Job Growth 15,934
Average Annual Replacement Demand: 50,836
Total Annual Demand: 66,770
Annually Louisiana’s private sectors demand for skilled workforce is over 66,000 jobs
Many of them are high skilled and high demand occupations and will need Higher Education to respond to Industry needs through a better alignment

13. Rating Occupations: Stars
LWC website provides info on available jobs:
Wages
Educational requirements
Star Rating
Star Rating: decision aid for job-seekers, employers, and policy planners
Rates a job by “how well it pays, and the occupation’s outlook”
Intended to reflect opportunity offered by an occupation, rather than measure subjective job quality

14. Star Rating System: Structure
Star Rating components for each occupation:
Short-term outlook
Long-term outlook
Current Openings
Wages
Rank each component, based on decile
Convert the average of component rankings to Stars

15. Star Rating System: Vetting Process
Developed in partnership with LSU’s Economic Research Policy Group.
Reviewed by Occupational Forecasting Council
Approved by Workforce Investment Council
OFC made up of 2 Economists, LED, BoR, Business and Industry, AFL-CIO partners
WIC has a membership representing both industry and state agencies.

16. 4-5 Star Jobs Span Across Educational Spectrum
Associate’s Degree
Bachelor’s Degree
Postsecondary Non-degree
Star Rating
Occupational Title
Average Annual Wage
Annual Total Demand
«««««
Registered Nurses
$62,455
1,910
Diagnostic Medical Sonographers
$59,479 40
««««
Electrical and Electronics Engineering Technicians
$55,985 50
Occupational Therapy Assistants
$54,050 20
Star Rating
Occupational Title
Average Annual Wage
Annual Total Demand
«««««
Mechanical Engineers
$98,308
120
Computer Systems Analysts
$72,539 90
Software Developers, Applications
$78,102
Chemical Engineers
$113,844
Star Rating
Occupational Title
Average Annual Wage
Annual Total Demand
«««««
Electricians
$48,709
530
Industrial Machinery Mechanics
$51,962
420
««««
Riggers
$38,276
200

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