1. Sixth Power Plan
Setting Conservation Targets and Implementation Strategies
Jill Steiner, Snohomish Public Utility District
Northwest Power and Conservation Council
Conservation Resource Advisory Committee
June 19, 2009

2. Conservation Philosophy
Public power utilities are committed to acquiring all cost-effective energy efficiency for the benefit of the region and our customers
Increasing marginal costs (Tier 2 pricing) and State requirements (e.g., I-937) provide strong incentive to pursue energy efficiency
Many utilities are increasing internal savings targets and expanding delivery capabilities
Driven by resource preference and anticipation of higher targets
Gaining better understanding of the Council supply curves part of that process

3. Target Concerns
Total economic potential, screening at $60/MWh for discretionary resources and $100/MWh, falls short of the recommended 5 year target
Historical achievements may not be fully indicative of our short-term ability to deliver a different and complex mix of measures
There is uncertainty around technical availability, performance, market acceptance and effective program approach and deployment for some of the measures in the supply curves
In addition to aggressive acquisition over the next five years, the region needs to prepare for sustained savings over the 20-year planning horizon

4. Target Assessment Targets need to be aggressive, but achievable
Targets provide a minimum threshold for performance
Utilities and others have demonstrated willingness to exceed targets when conservation resources are available
Three methods used to assess achievability of targets
Measure-by-measure ramp rate review
Uncertainty analysis
Margin of error

5. Measure-by-Measure Review
*Based on avoided cost screen of $60/MWh for discretionary resources and $100/MWh for lost opportunities. 5

6. Review by Sector
*Based on avoided cost screen of $60/MWh for discretionary resources and $100/MWh for lost opportunities.

7. Residential Ramp Rates

8. Residential Measure WG Changes

9. Ramp Rate Comparison - HPWH

10. Commercial Ramp Rates

11. Commercial Measure WG Changes

12. Commercial Ramp Rate Comparison

13. Industrial and Agriculture Ramp Rates

14. Industrial/Ag Measure WG Changes

15. Industrial/Ag Ramp Rate Comparison

16. Five Year Ramp Rate Comparison
1163 aMW
1004 aMW

17. Uncertainty Analysis
Create a range of outcomes based on different “realization rates” for measures with partial or low technical, market or program “readiness”
Realization Rate

18. Uncertainty Analysis
No impacts from low or partially ready measures is not a likely outcome
Little evidence to assign probabilities to the other outcomes
Average across the non-zero probabilities is 992 aMW

19. Margin of Error Adjustment
Despite best efforts, 100% success across all measures is not likely
Modify target to allow some room for error, risk tolerance
E.g., set minimum target at 80% of identified potential

20. Example of Margin of Error Approach
1242 aMW
992 aMW

21. Effect of Increased Avoided Costs

22. Addressing Uncertainty
Create a regional research agenda that includes:
Objectives
Priorities
Funding commitments
Establish milestones for:
Monitoring progress
Making decisions

23. Top Twenty Measures – 5 Years

24. Top Twenty Measures – 10 Years

25. Other Issues
Current reporting makes it hard to link accomplishments and identified potential
How will we address adaptive management over the action plan horizon?
New measures
New information about existing measures
Market changes

26. Next Steps Build consensus around the appropriate target
Establish implementation plans to pursue all identified potential (no measures fall off the table)
Launch a coordinated research planning effort (and execute)
Enhance regional reporting capability and consistency 26

27. Let’s get to work!!!