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Policies and problems February 19th 2012 revised march 2018
Prof Robin Matthews Further papers by robin Matthews can be found at Also and
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Networks: default state Small world: highly clustered, short path lengths
Degree of a node is the number of edges (k) connecting it to other nodes. High degree nodes have many connections (high k); low degree nodes have few (low k) P(k) probability of degree k follows a power law P(k) ~ z k – α.. P(k)~ z k – α..
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Haldane (2009)
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Haldane (2009)
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Haldane (2009)
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The environment Gaia or exploitation
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Roots of the great recession
It always happens again
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GLOBAL POSITIVE FEEDBACKS
Securitization GLOBAL POSITIVE FEEDBACKS 1980 – 2006 (circa)
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CHANGING IDEOLOGY Privatization Nationalization Deregulation
belief that the state ownership is inefficient Economic shock therapy Deregulation Reliance on self regulation Condoning shadow banks and falsification Monetarism Policies based on interest rates rational expectations theory supply side economics Nationalization USSRUK USSRUSA Bail outs Regulation Awaiting policy decisions Keynesianism fiscal policy deficit finance demand side economics
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The financial tower of Babel: 21ST century
CDO’s CDC’s CDW’S SWF’S SPV’’s SPE’s CONDUITS IPO’s PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS HEDGE FUNDS DERIVATIVES/OPTIONS SHADOW BANKING SYSTEM REGULATED BANKING SYSTEM CORPORATE BONDS GOVERNMENT BONDS LIQUID ASSETS CASH unregulated regulated
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Causes of crises Low interest rates Savings glut Financial innovation
Moral hazard None of the above All of the above Samudaya (the second noble truth: thirst)
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interdependence Low interest rates Savings glut Financial innovation
Moral hazard
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interdependence samudaya Low interest rates Savings glut
Financial innovation Moral hazard samudaya
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Thirst/desire/craving (nafs/samudaya)
Moral hazard Financial innovation Low interest rates Savings glut
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Emerging nations Back to the past
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Economist Sept
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Keynesian and monetarist
Cryptic models Keynesian and monetarist
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Aggregate demand The price level Aggregate supply ∑ S ∑ D Real output Keynesian case with liquidity trap
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Aggregate demand The price level ∑ S Aggregate supply ∑ D Real output The pure classical case Reagonomics and crowding out
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Keynes: sources of unemployment
The liquidity trap Inconsistency between savings and investment Rigid money wages
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The multiplier The marginal propensity to consume The importance of aggregate demand
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GLOBAL GRAMMAR: MACROECONOMIC POLICY
Business Cycles Fiscal policy (G-T) Monetary policy (interest rates) Global Kronos Capitalism: Policies IMF WTO World Bank and EU policy
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The Phillips curve
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