1. John Lewis, Senior Forecaster National Weather Service
The Year 2017 So Far/
A Look Ahead
John Lewis, Senior Forecaster
National Weather Service
Little Rock, Arkansas

2. Precipitation in 2017
Through November

3. Precipitation in 2017 Through November Departure from average, with
big minus values in the southwest.

4. September/October/November
Lack of Rain in Fall
September/October/November
Departure from
average, and it was very dry in most of Arkansas.

5. September/October/November
Lack of Rain in Fall
September/October/November

6. September/October/November
Lack of Rain in Fall
September/October/November
It was the driest fall on record at Monticello (Drew County), Mount Ida (Montgomery County), Pine Bluff (Jefferson County), and Russellville (Pope County). Records at these sites go back to the 1870s/1800s!
Precipitation was less than 25 percent of average in places such as Jonesboro (Craighead County), Little Rock (Pulaski County), and Pine Bluff (Jefferson County). At these sites, under three inches of liquid was measured.

7. Drought Monitor
December 5, 2017

8. Drought Monitor
December 5, 2017

9. 90 Day Rain
Through October 15, 2017

10. Long Term Drought

11. The Pattern
October 9, 2017

12. ENSO
Late 2017/Early 2018

13. Tropics Came Alive August/September, 2017
Category 4 hurricanes hit the Texas Gulf Coast (Harvey), Florida (Irma), and Puerto Rico (Maria).

14. Rain From Harvey
August 31, 2017

15. Weak La Niña Winter
Temperatures
Little Rock

16. Weak La Niña Winter
Precipitation
Little Rock

17. Cool Summer/ Cold Winter?
77.7° in 2017 – 25th coolest

18. Cool Summer/ Cold Winter?
The last two winters (2015/2016 and 2016/2017) bordered on toasty, and both are on the Top 10 mild list. If we were to have a similar winter this time around, it would be unprecedented.
More specifically, there have not been three straight winters in Arkansas with temperatures at least three degrees above normal.

19. And it Froze…Twice
October 28-29, 2017

20. Deep South Snow
December 8, 2017
4” - 8”+
Little Rock
4” - 8”+

21. Deep South Snow December 8, 2017
An inch of snow was measured at Mobile, AL, which was the 2nd most snow in December locally.

22. Arctic Oscillation (AO)
Negative Phase

23. Arctic Oscillation (AO)
Negative Phase

24. Arctic Oscillation (AO)
Negative Phase

25. Arctic Oscillation (AO)
Negative Phase

26. Arctic Oscillation (AO)
Negative Phase

27. What the Models Say
Winter
Temperature

28. What the Models Say
Winter
Precipitation

29. To Finish the Year
While a weak La Niña and the models favor warmer than average temperatures this winter, local statistics say it will be closer to normal and not so mild.
While December will finish dry, there are signs that drought relief is possible in January and February. Drought will probably persist in southern Arkansas.

30. On the Web

31. Thanks for coming! Any Questions?
The End
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32. Temperature Inversion

33. Temperature Inversion
Smoke

34. Temperature Inversion
Very common in Arkansas during the growing season, especially late spring/summer.
Set up during the evening (before sunset) and last overnight into the next morning (after sunrise).
Particles and pollutants (such as smoke, chemicals, etc) get trapped below the inversion and drift downstream.