1. Growth of China’s Auto Industry Vs
Oil Supply，Oil Security
Dr. Feng Fei
Industry Department of DRC, China

2. Auto Population Growth （1994-2004）
21.8 out of 100 people have their own motor vehicles in 1994,
compared 49.8% in 2004.

3. Oil Consumption and Its Growth Rate(1993-2003)
China’s oil consumption is 4.53% of the world in 1994, compared
7.61% in 2003.

4. Auto Market Demands Forecast for China 2020

5. China’s Net Oil Imports and Oil Dependence (1993-2004)
In 2004, China’s net oil imports are 117 million tons, or
40.18% dependence.

6. Oil consumption forecast for 2020 based on 3 estimations (0.1bn tons)
Note: The oil consumptions are forecasted according to the middle option of motor vehicle market predictions. The differences between three estimations are laid in the choice of different policies.

7. Oil consumed by motor vehicles among the total oil consumptions
In 2000, oil consumed by motor vehicles hit 65.60mn tons, or about 1/3 of China’s consumption.
The estimated oil consumption are 130mn tons and 256mn tons, or 43%, 57％ of China’s total oil consumption of that year.
Note: The motor vehicles above mentioned include motorcycles and farm automobiles.

8. Trend of oil dependence
Output(0.1bn ton)
Import(0.1bn ton)
Import dependence % %
Note: The output will hit a peak of 200million ton in 2015, and as C stands, the prospective output for 2010, 2020 are 320mn tons and 450mn tons respectively. 。
Oil dependence (%) 2000
US Japan UK France Germany Italy China

9. China’s oil reserves
China’s oil geological reserves are bn tons in 2001, with 6.204bn tons recoverable reserves and remainder of 2.408bn tons.
The remainder of recoverable reserves saw a seesaw change with a highest 2.38bn tons in 1988 and lowest 2.23bn tons in 1995, 2.46bn tons in 2000 (a new high point). The reserves in 2001 are 102.1% that of 1988.
Generally, China’s oil reserves feature “a good balance between output and consumption with a bit of redundancy” in its adult stage. The future development depends the strategic continuity between the aged oil fields in east of China and those relatively new oilfields in western China and offshore areas.

10. Comparison concerning per capita oil and richness
China world China/world%
Output:per capita(ton/person)
Average in unit area(ton/km2)
Remainder of recoverable reserves：
per capita
Average in unit area
Whole reserves:
per capita
Average unit area

12. Developments of world oil reserves and global oil markets
In 2001, the remainder of recoverable reserves is 142.7bn tons. The average reserves-output ratio is 40.6 worldwide, compared with merely 14 in China.
The proven reserves are possibly doubled in the next three decades.
The oil market is supposed to be reshuffled.

13. Fuel Efficiency (km/L) Global Wide
weight1360kg, displacement1.8L weight1550kg,2.8L
China
Europe US
Japan
China’s fuel economy is 10-15% lower than that of Europe, 5-20% than US, 20-25% than Japan.

14. Oil Price Comparison(USD/Lit)
1.4
1.22
1.2 1 1
0.97
0.99
0.8
0.6
0.53
0.43
0.4
0.32
0.2
China US
Canada
France
Germany
Japan UK

15. Fuel Tax Policies Gasoline Diesel oil 5.0 Fuel tax 4.0 Fuel price 3.0
gal /
USD
2.0
1.0
0.0
Japan
France UK
Japan
Canada US
Japan
France UK
Germany
Canada US
Gasoline
Diesel oil

16. US CAFÉ Standards Performance

17. Different Solution for Implementation of Fuel Efficiency Standards

18. Estimated Results for the Fuel Efficiency Standards
Oil consumption of target model
5000
10000
15000
20000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
10,000
ton
Base solution
Backup solution
Middle solution
Ideal solution
Advanced-tech solution

19. The global auto industry is poising for a new round of tech innovation US: from PNGV to FREE CAR Europe: Energy alternative solutions and diesel car trend GTL, BTL, CTL Japan: HYBRID

20. Market Share of Diesel in the EU 1991 until 2003 (all Manufacturers)17 62
United Kingdom 57 46 30
1991 32 15 53
Germany
2001
Austria
France 37 23
Spain
Source: Mavel 9
Italy 50
44%
EU15 40 30
Diesel Share [%] 20 10
Year
Year

21. Policy mix
Advanced auto technology Fuel efficiency standards Fuel tax Improve the oil quality
Marketing impetus
R&D financing
International cooperation
It is suggested to adopt ideal option to implement fuel efficiency standards and can cut consumption by 50mn tons in 2020 。