Motorcycle Danger … We Used To Call It Something Else

Motorcycle Danger … We Used To Call It Something Else
A Primer on the Tools of the New Paradigm Presented at the SMSA 2015 National Symposium Baltimore, Maryland October 7-10, 2015 MotorcycleDanger.com

MotorcycleDanger.com Presented by
Joseph T. Elliott, Executive Director National Motorcycle Institute (NMI) A 501(c)3 non-profit/public benefit institute. “We do not promote motorcycles. We use science to understand and manage the danger of motorcycling.” MotorcycleDanger.com Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 2

Part 2 -DATA

Scientific Method requires us to consider,
and reason through, appropriate data sources and strategies. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 4

Let’s start with the Relationship between:
For Example, which data? Let’s start with the Relationship between: Dose Intensity Exposure Dose = Intensity x Exposure Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 5

Dose = Intensity X Exposure
How high the sun is in the sky relates to Intensity. Image courtesy of vectorolie at FreeDigitalPhotos.net How long you stay in the sun relates to Exposure. Whether or not you get sunburn depends on your Dose: Dose = Intensity X Exposure Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 6

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) is an Exposure Measure
VMT - The more miles you travel, the more exposure to the danger The more you are exposed to a danger, the more likely you are to get hurt VMT is the best available exposure measure for our work Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 7

We are growing more confident in the reliability of VMT data because
of the Vehicle Miles Traveled TAX. The vehicle miles traveled tax is a road user mileage-based fee. The VMT tax will be based on the type of vehicle and on how many miles the vehicle has traveled. They are "sharpening the pencils" on VMT now! Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 8

After careful considerations, we choose these Data Sets:
Driver Fatality Counts (DF) Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) All Fatalities In Collisions Counts (AF) Population (Pop) Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 9

FARS: Fatality Analysis Reporting System
When there is a fatal crash, a crash report is generated and submitted to FARS. It is difficult to be killed in a crash and not be counted. We have a high confidence in the veracity of the count of fatalities reported in crashes. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 10

We define the “driver” as the person, carried within or upon a vehicle, who is operating or controlling the vehicle. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 11

We can look at subgroups of drivers, such as motorcycle drivers, or passenger vehicle drivers.
Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 12

Now we can count Driver Fatalities
TMDF = Total Motorcycle Driver Fatalities TPVDF = Total Passenger Vehicle Driver Fatalities Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 13

Helmeted and Licensed, etc.
Helmeted Drivers We can subdivide the driver fatality counts into smaller categories, such as Licensed Drivers Helmeted and Licensed, etc. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 14

Measuring Driver Danger
We model the danger of driving a MotorCycle with: Total Motorcycle Driver Fatalities (TMDF) = Vehicle Miles Traveled, Motorcycle (VMT(MC)) Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 15

Passenger Vehicle Driver Danger
We model the danger of driving a Passenger Vehicle with: Total Passenger Vehicle Driver Fatalities (TPVDF) = Vehicle Miles Traveled, Passenger Vehicle (VMT(PV)) Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 16

The relative driver danger can be
calculated from the ratio of the these two rates Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 17

In Our Model, Driving a Motorcycle is 27 times more
dangerous than driving a Passenger Vehicle, mile for mile. Driver Fatalities per Billion Miles Traveled Motorcycle Passenger Vehicle Relative Danger 2010 215 7.88 27.3 2011 220 7.58 29.0 2012 203 7.68 26.4 2013 200 7.45 26.9 Average 210 7.65 27.4 We average the most recent four years so as to provide enough data points to smooth out random fluctuations. (Most current FARS data is 2013) However, four years is not so long of a period that it washes out the current trend. (2014 data available Dec 2015.) Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 18

This leads us to looking at
Driver Data and VMT Data is useful for Driver Danger, But what about Danger to Society? This leads us to looking at All Fatality Data and Population Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 19

All Fatalities, Motorcycle
All fatalities are counted in crashes where at least one motorcycle is involved. All persons killed in the crash are counted. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 20

All Fatalities, Passenger Vehicles
All fatalities are counted in crashes where at least one passenger vehicle is involved. All persons killed in the crash are counted. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 21

The count includes all people killed in the crash:
All Fatalities Count The count includes all people killed in the crash: Drivers of any of the vehicles Passengers of any of the vehicles Pedestrians Anyone who was killed by the crash/incident Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 22

We will associate Population with "All Fatalities“ Data:
If there is more population, there are more fatalities. If there are more cars, there are more crashes, more pedestrians, more crashes, more trucks, more crashes, etc. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 23

Many are paying attention to this number.
Population is connected to many governmental concerns; the representation in government and taxation being of great importance. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 24

As population increases and decreases,
An Important principle in Math and Science: As population increases and decreases, we, naturally, expect changes in the number of crashes and the number of fatalities to increase and decrease accordingly. Side Note: This is why the definition of the natural base and natural log is dx/dy = x Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 25

Societal Danger is Modeled by:
All Fatalities (AF) count divided by Population (Pop) Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 26

Using the count TMAF = Total Motorcycle All Fatalities and Population
Motorcycle Societal Danger is modeled by: Total Motorcycle All Fatalities = Population TMAF/Pop Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 27

Societal Danger Model: All Fatalities Count per Population
Motorcycle Societal Danger is modeled by: TMAF/Pop Passenger Vehicle Societal Danger is modeled by: TPVAF/Pop It is important that the “Pop” is the same, whether for motorcycle or passenger vehicle rate. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 28

TMAF/Pop and TPVAF/Pop
Can be used to compare your region to the rest of the country, and other regions. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 29

In addition to changes in training and licensing of drivers,
This societal danger model can be used to detect changes to roadway, laws, gear, vehicle specification, etc. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 30

TMAF/Pop We consider this inclusive rate to be
All Fatalities per Population TMAF/Pop We consider this inclusive rate to be the most important of all the motorcycle fatality rates. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 31

Please go to the Data page of MotorcycleDanger.com
to compare your state. All TMAF/Pop on the website are purposefully charted on the same scale to make comparisons easier. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 32

Part 3: Shifting to the New Paradigm

Wikipedia: A paradigm is a distinct set of concepts or thought
The Paradigm is the Tool Box that we use to hold and organize the tools. Wikipedia: A paradigm is a distinct set of concepts or thought patterns, including theories, research methods, postulates, and standards for what constitutes legitimate contributions to a field. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 34

paradigm (framework of thinking)
We are shifting to a paradigm (framework of thinking) Fatality Rates that leads to solutions for reducing motorcycle related fatalities. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 35

We need a framework for thinking about the picture ...

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 37

Motorcycles can be safe
and enjoyable. Old Paradigm: Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 38

Motorcycles are dangerous
NEW Paradigm: Motorcycles are dangerous and can be enjoyable. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 39

If you got hurt or killed you must have been doing it wrong.
Old Paradigm: Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 41

Motorcycle drivers can get hurt or killed
NEW Paradigm: Motorcycle drivers can get hurt or killed even when they are doing it "right." Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 42

Motorcyclists are different
from other drivers. Old Paradigm: Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 44

Motorcycle drivers are similar
NEW Paradigm: Motorcycle drivers are similar to other human drivers. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 45

New Paradigm: Decrease the Number of Drivers Killed
And what is our measure of success? Old Paradigm: Increase the Number of Students Trained New Paradigm: Decrease the Number of Drivers Killed Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 46

Motorcycles are dangerous and can be enjoyable
The NEW Paradigm Motorcycles are dangerous and can be enjoyable Motorcycle drivers can get hurt or killed even when they are doing it "right" Motorcycle drivers are similar to other human drivers Using this paradigm (framework of thinking) leads to solutions that reduce motorcycle related fatalities. Fatality Rates Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 47

Part 4: The NMI System

The Challenge: Devise a robust System Within the New Paradigm
That will reduce Motorcycle Fatality Rates Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 49

The NMI System (“opt-out”) The NMI-System: Five Steps to reduce
Licensed and Unlicensed Motorcycle Driver Fatalities The NMI System (“opt-out”) Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 50

A person becomes interested in street riding:
START A person becomes interested in street riding: The NMI-System: Five Steps to reduce Licensed and Unlicensed Motorcycle Driver Fatalities The NMI System (“opt-out”) Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 51

START A person becomes interested in street riding: The NMI-System: Five Steps to reduce Licensed and Unlicensed Motorcycle Driver Fatalities The NMI System (“opt-out”) 1. Gather Information: Gather2ride Motorcycle drivers are 27 times more likely to experience a fatal collision than Car Drivers. It will take time, money, and effort to become a knowledgeable motorcycle driver. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 52

START A person becomes interested in street riding: The NMI-System: Five Steps to reduce Licensed and Unlicensed Motorcycle Driver Fatalities The NMI System (“opt-out”) 1. Gather Information: Gather2ride Motorcycle drivers are 27 times more likely to experience a fatal collision than Car Drivers. It will take time, money, and effort to become a knowledgeable motorcycle driver. Chooses Not to Continue Chooses to Continue Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 53

Motorcycle Driver Fatality
START A person becomes interested in street riding: The NMI-System: Five Steps to reduce Licensed and Unlicensed Motorcycle Driver Fatalities The NMI System (“opt-out”) 1. Gather Information: Gather2ride Motorcycle drivers are 27 times more likely to experience a fatal collision than Car Drivers. It will take time, money, and effort to become a knowledgeable motorcycle driver. Chooses Not to Continue Cannot Become a Motorcycle Driver Fatality Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 54

START A person becomes interested in street riding: The NMI-System: Five Steps to reduce Licensed and Unlicensed Motorcycle Driver Fatalities The NMI System (“opt-out”) 1. Gather Information: Gather2ride Motorcycle drivers are 27 times more likely to experience a fatal collision than Car Drivers. It will take time, money, and effort to become a knowledgeable motorcycle driver. Chooses Not to Continue 2. Beginner-Time: Begin2ride Learn to operate (control speed and direction) of a motorcycle. Learn on a small motorcycle in a learning environment with controlled access. Motorcycle operation techniques are independent of motorcycle size. Learning how to operate a motorcycle is dependent on motorcycle size. Chooses Not to Continue Chooses to Continue Learner-Time Practice Cannot Become a Motorcycle Driver Fatality Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 55

START A person becomes interested in street riding: The NMI-System: Five Steps to reduce Licensed and Unlicensed Motorcycle Driver Fatalities The NMI System (“opt-out”) 1. Gather Information: Gather2ride Motorcycle drivers are 27 times more likely to experience a fatal collision than Car Drivers. It will take time, money, and effort to become a knowledgeable motorcycle driver. Chooses Not to Continue 2. Beginner-Time: Begin2ride Learn to operate (control speed and direction) of a motorcycle. Learn on a small motorcycle in a learning environment with controlled access. Motorcycle operation techniques are independent of motorcycle size. Learning how to operate a motorcycle is dependent on motorcycle size. Chooses Not to Continue Motorcycle Skills Test by Independent Evaluator Receive Endorsement M1 Department of Licensing Chooses to Continue Learner-Time Practice Cannot Become a Motorcycle Driver Fatality Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 56

START A person becomes interested in street riding: The NMI-System: Five Steps to reduce Licensed and Unlicensed Motorcycle Driver Fatalities The NMI System (“opt-out”) 1. Gather Information: Gather2ride Motorcycle drivers are 27 times more likely to experience a fatal collision than Car Drivers. It will take time, money, and effort to become a knowledgeable motorcycle driver. Chooses Not to Continue 2. Beginner-Time: Begin2ride Learn to operate (control speed and direction) of a motorcycle. Learn on a small motorcycle in a learning environment with controlled access. Motorcycle operation techniques are independent of motorcycle size. Learning how to operate a motorcycle is dependent on motorcycle size. Chooses Not to Continue 3. Learner-Time: Continue2ride Study street riding techniques and skills. No riding in traffic yet. For example, practice using mirrors and turn signals in a practice environment with controlled access. Study situational awareness (Obtain Learner's Permit) Chooses Not to Continue Cannot Become a Motorcycle Driver Fatality Chooses to Continue Learner-Time Practice Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 57

START A person becomes interested in street riding: The NMI-System: Five Steps to reduce Licensed and Unlicensed Motorcycle Driver Fatalities The NMI System (“opt-out”) 1. Gather Information: Gather2ride Motorcycle drivers are 27 times more likely to experience a fatal collision than Car Drivers. It will take time, money, and effort to become a knowledgeable motorcycle driver. Chooses Not to Continue 2. Beginner-Time: Begin2ride Learn to operate (control speed and direction) of a motorcycle. Learn on a small motorcycle in a learning environment with controlled access. Motorcycle operation techniques are independent of motorcycle size. Learning how to operate a motorcycle is dependent on motorcycle size. Chooses Not to Continue 3. Learner-Time: Continue2ride Study street riding techniques and skills. No riding in traffic yet. For example, practice using mirrors and turn signals in a practice environment with controlled access. Study situational awareness (Obtain Learner's Permit) Chooses Not to Continue 4. Learner-Time Practice: Going2ride On an appropriate sized motorcycle that you are familiar with (through riding on a closed circuit such as in step 3) begin to ride on low speed and low traffic public roads. Increase exposure as reasonable. Chooses Not to Continue Chooses to Continue to Independent Testing for Unrestricted License Endorsement M1 Cannot Become a Motorcycle Driver Fatality Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 58

START A person becomes interested in street riding: The NMI-System: Five Steps to reduce Licensed and Unlicensed Motorcycle Driver Fatalities The NMI System (“opt-out”) 1. Gather Information: Gather2ride Motorcycle drivers are 27 times more likely to experience a fatal collision than Car Drivers. It will take time, money, and effort to become a knowledgeable motorcycle driver. Chooses Not to Continue 2. Beginner-Time: Begin2ride Learn to operate (control speed and direction) of a motorcycle. Learn on a small motorcycle in a learning environment with controlled access. Motorcycle operation techniques are independent of motorcycle size. Learning how to operate a motorcycle is dependent on motorcycle size. Chooses Not to Continue 3. Learner-Time: Continue2ride Study street riding techniques and skills. No riding in traffic yet. For example, practice using mirrors and turn signals in a practice environment with controlled access. Study situational awareness (Obtain Learner's Permit) Chooses Not to Continue 4. Learner-Time Practice: Going2ride On an appropriate sized motorcycle that you are familiar with (through riding on a closed circuit such as in step 3) begin to ride on low speed and low traffic public roads. Increase exposure as reasonable. Chooses Not to Continue Motorcycle Skills Test by Independent Evaluator Receive Endorsement M1 Department of Licensing 5. Independent Skill Evaluation: Test2ride After increasing your skill set to an appropriate level, test for intermediate skills. These, by definition, are skills that a typical novice cannot acquire in one weekend. License if intermediate. Chooses Not to Continue Cannot Become a Motorcycle Driver Fatality Chooses to Continue Riding on Public Roadways Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 59

Motorcycle Driver Fatality Motorcycle Driver Fatality
START A person becomes interested in street riding: The NMI-System: Five Steps to reduce Licensed and Unlicensed Motorcycle Driver Fatalities The NMI System (“opt-out”) 1. Gather Information: Gather2ride Motorcycle drivers are 27 times more likely to experience a fatal collision than Car Drivers. It will take time, money, and effort to become a knowledgeable motorcycle driver. Chooses Not to Continue 2. Beginner-Time: Begin2ride Learn to operate (control speed and direction) of a motorcycle. Learn on a small motorcycle in a learning environment with controlled access. Motorcycle operation techniques are independent of motorcycle size. Learning how to operate a motorcycle is dependent on motorcycle size. This System Reduces Unlicensed and Licensed Motorcycle Driver Fatality Rates Chooses Not to Continue 3. Learner-Time: Continue2ride Study street riding techniques and skills. No riding in traffic yet. For example, practice using mirrors and turn signals in a practice environment with controlled access. Study situational awareness (Obtain Learner's Permit) Chooses Not to Continue 4. Learner-Time Practice: Going2ride On an appropriate sized motorcycle that you are familiar with (through riding on a closed circuit such as in step 3) begin to ride on low speed and low traffic public roads. Increase exposure as reasonable. Chooses Not to Continue 5. Independent Skill Evaluation: Test2ride After increasing your skill set to an appropriate level, test for intermediate skills. These, by definition, are skills that a typical novice cannot acquire in one weekend. License if intermediate. Chooses Not to Continue Can Choose Cannot Become a Motorcycle Driver Fatality May become a Licensed Motorcycle Driver Fatality Not to Continue Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 60

Part 5: Scientific Method

Tools to be used with the New Paradigm Is it Truth (Factual)
or Truthy (Wishful)? Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 62

The quality of being factual.
Truthiness: The quality of preferring facts one wishes to be true, rather than facts known to be true. Truth: The quality of being factual. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 63

"Statement" because "Explanation"
We use science in this way: "Statement" because "Explanation" Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 64

Measurable and Disprovable Difficult to Manipulate
"Statement" because "Explanation" Where the "Statement" must be Measurable and Disprovable And the "Explanation" must be Difficult to Manipulate Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 65

“Statement because Explanation" Example
Right of way violations occur because the violators are experiencing inattentional blindness. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 66

The Statement Rule: A scientific statement should be measurable,
Reference: Francis Bacon and Karl Popper A scientific statement should be measurable, can be tested and should be disprovable. Scientifically, either we find evidence to support the statement, or we disprove a statement. Therefore, saying “Scientifically Proven” is an oxymoron. We should use, "Scientifically Supported" and “Scientifically Disproven." Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 67

Science cannot answer all questions.
A caution about statements: There are reasonable and non-scientific statements. Example: “A person can’t live forever.” This statement is reasonable; but not testable, not scientific. Science cannot answer all questions. It can answer some questions, well. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 68

Use Scientific Method to guide us to better Explanations

The Explanation Rule: A scientific theory must be difficult to manipulate and hard to vary. It must be difficult to make up new explanations as evidence is accumulated. Supporting evidence from measurement and experiment leads to refinement. This rule is what we mean when we say the scientific theory or explanation is good. Myths are easy to vary, so testing them is not useful. Ref: Physicist David Deutsch Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 70

Caution about statements and explanations:
Just because a statement is measurable and disprovable does not make it scientific. It needs to also have a good explanation. Example: “The sun will not rise on Tuesday.” This statement is measurable, and disprovable, yet one can make up many variations of explanation. Again, science cannot answer all questions. It can answer some questions, well. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 71

More Tools for the New Paradigm
The 4-Box Condition-Outcome Test Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 72

a b c d Many TRUTHY statements use only one or
4-Box Condition-Outcome Test Outcome 1 Outcome 2 a b c d Condition 1 Condition 2 Many TRUTHY statements use only one or two boxes, and disregard the rest. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 73

a b c d Example: 4-Box Test: Comparing Licensed and Unlicensed
Motorcycle Driver Fatalities, USA 2013 Not Killed Killed a b c MC License d No MC License Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 74

"Hey, unlicensed motorcycle drivers are the problem!"
Example: 4-Box Test: Comparing Licensed and Unlicensed Motorcycle Driver Fatalities, USA 2013 Not Killed Killed a b c MC License 1037 No MC License "Hey, unlicensed motorcycle drivers are the problem!" But remember to count all the boxes … Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 75

Oh, Unlicensed Motorcycle Drivers are NOT the problem!
Example: 4-Box Test: Comparing Licensed and Unlicensed Motorcycle Driver Fatalities, USA 2013 Not Killed Killed 3045 11 Million 311 Million MC License Licensed = 276 per Million No License = 3 per Million 1037 No MC License Oh, Unlicensed Motorcycle Drivers are NOT the problem! But remember to count all the boxes … Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 76

“It ain't so much the things we don't know that get us in trouble.
It's the things we know that just ain't so.” Artemus Ward Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 77

Good Science is Hard to Accomplish This comes from our human genius
of making decisions from partial information. We “jump” to conclusions. This is why we can enjoy seeing images in the clouds. We humans are often optimistic and may prefer truthiness to truth when only partial information is available. And, we often prefer the answer that makes us feel good over accurate answers. Sisyphus by Titian, Prado Museum, Madrid Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 78

We can use Scientific Method to guard against being mislead
by Truthy statements. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 79

Part 6a: An Example using the
“Scientific Explanation” Tool within the New Paradigm

A good explanation is difficult to manipulate,
difficult to vary as new data is collected. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 81

"Statement" because "Explanation"
"I didn’t see the motorcycle prior to crashing into it.” Let us compare two different explanations, a bad explanation and a good explanation. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 82

Conspicuity or Inattentional Blindness?
Conspicuity: The property of being clearly discernable. The state or quality of being clear and bright. Inattentional Blindness (IB). Even if the motorcycle is in full view, the other driver may be mentally blind to the presence of the motorcycle. The driver's eyes may see the motorcycle, but if the driver is mentally attending to other tasks the image of the motorcycle may be ignored. So, the driver's eyes may see the motorcycle, but the driver's brain does not comprehend the motorcycle. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 83

Conspicuity: What color helmet was the motorcycle
Question by investigator speaking with the driver who just stated, "I didn't see the motorcycle." Conspicuity: What color helmet was the motorcycle driver wearing? (Or, “Did he have his headlight on?,” etc..) Inattentional Blindness: Where was your attention just prior to the crash? (Difficult to vary.) Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 84

Car driver collides with motorcycle:
Conspicuity: Educate the motorcycle driver Inattentional Blindness: Educate the car driver. Also Add detection devices to car and motorcycle. Change the roadway. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 85

On your clip board you carefully notate such matters as:
Imagine you are sent out to observe motorcycles from the side of the road. Your task is to evaluate the conspicuity of motorcycles driving by you. On your clip board you carefully notate such matters as: Color of driver gear Color of motorcycle Other suggestions? Last thing to do before you submit your findings ... Estimate number of motorcycles that got by you because you didn’t see them. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 86

And, By the Way, Peripheral Vision ...
... is Colorblind. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 87

Conspicuity is easy to manipulate,
easy to vary as more data is collected. Conspicuity is a bad explanation for why other drivers collide with motorcycles. Inattentional Blindness is difficult to manipulate, difficult to vary as more data is collected. Inattention Blindness is a good explanation for why other drivers collide with motorcycles Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 88

Part 6b: A Example using the 4-Box Tool within the New Paradigm

4-Box Condition-Outcome Test
and Skillful Motorcycle Drivers Fatalities Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 90

make us better motorcyclists.
We know skills training and practice make us better motorcyclists. Why do so many skillful motorcyclists get killed? Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 91

a b c d Skill Level We can test if b < d
For any skill, and over any time period, we can set up the following 4-Box analysis: Not Killed Above Average Below Average Skill Level a b c d 50% above a+b =c+d 50% below We can test if b < d Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 92

Are motorcycle drivers with above average cornering skills
underrepresented in fatality data? With this 4-Box tool we can test such statements. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 93

a b c d Example: Cornering skill 4-Box, during the last 10 years:
Above Average Below Average Not Killed Test if b < d Raise Hands 50% above a+b =c+d 50% below Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 94

a c Example: Cornering skill 4-Box, during the last 10 years: Test if
Not Killed a We Find Not Zero Above Average Below Average c We Find Not Large Test if b < d Count hands example: How many know a motorcycle driver that can be counted? Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 95

Do motorcycle drivers with above average Emergency Evasion Skills
get killed? There is much effort in training for increasing the skill of Emergency Evasion and Situational Awareness: SIPDE SEE Smith System Look - React Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 96

Emergency Evasion Response Demonstration
Two Volunteers: Vol 1: Motorcycle Driver with above average Response Skill and Situational Awareness (and a good sport) Vol 2: Regular Human Being Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 97

Picking up crumpled paper Demo

The Old Paradigm allows the concept that you can predict the future
The New Paradigm allows the concept that skill training makes you better, not safer. The Old Paradigm allows the concept that you can predict the future through situational awareness training. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 99

Part 6c: An Example using the
"Scientific Statement" Tool within the New Paradigm

A scientific statement must be measurable and disprovable.
The measurement, or test, of the statement, once done, provides evidence to support, or disprove the statement. Once disproved, the statement should be abandoned. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 101

Why is there controversy about helmets?
Often, non-scientific statements are used, … … or, scientific statements that have been found false (disproved) are NOT abandoned. X X If false, stop using Statement! Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 102

“Motorcycle Helmet Effectiveness Revisited”
The NHTSA study “Motorcycle Helmet Effectiveness Revisited” Deuterman et al, DOT HS , March, 2004 is not scientific since it violates its fundamental statement. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 103

cannot support or refute
“Motorcycle Helmet Effectiveness Revisited” cannot support or refute the effectiveness of helmets because of the following: Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 104

This study analyzed fatal crashes of "Two-Up" riders.
Example of Two-Up riders both wearing helmets This study compared different combinations of the two riders wearing and not wearing helmets. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 105

The major premise of the study is the following Statement:
“It is assumed that any difference between the fatality ratios for unhelmeted and helmeted motorcycle occupants in each of the possible scenarios is due to the effectiveness of the helmet.” This statement is Measurable and Disprovable. It is a scientific statement. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 106

Compare Fatality crashes for this scenario:
With the passenger unhelmeted in both cases, the comparison is made between the drivers that were helmeted to the drivers that were unhelmeted. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 107

Let us look at the similar calculation for the passenger,
The calculated effectiveness for the driver to wear a helmet is 23% when the passenger is not wearing a helmet. Let us look at the similar calculation for the passenger, when the driver is unhelmeted in both cases. The helmet is assumed to provide the same effectiveness for either position. If the assumption holds, then helmet effectiveness should not change due to a change in position of the rider. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 108

With the driver unhelmeted in both cases. Helmet "effectiveness"

Oops, position changed helmet effectiveness.

Let's check a different way.

Does Passenger Helmet "Effectiveness" change when
Driver changes helmet? Driver with helmet 27% Driver no-helmet Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 112

27% Double Oops, driver's choice
changed passengers helmet effectiveness. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 113

Let us do the same comparison, but for the
driver when the passenger chooses to wear a helmet. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 114

Driver Helmet Effectiveness
Passenger Helmeted Passenger Unhelmeted Triple Oops! Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 115

Ironically, according to these make-believe scenarios,
the passenger should request the driver to not wear a helmet; and the driver should request the passenger to wear a helmet. Please Don't wear your helmet for me. If you don't it makes my effectiveness go from 27% to 55%! Please wear your helmet for me. You wearing your helmet makes my helmet effectiveness go from 23% to 52%! Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 116

The statement is FALSE, thus:
“It is assumed that any difference between the fatality ratios for unhelmeted and helmeted motorcycle occupants in each of the possible scenarios is due to the effectiveness of the helmet.” The statement is FALSE, thus: The two-up method of calculating helmet effectiveness cannot be used since the assumption Is FALSE. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 117

cannot SUPPORT or REFUTE
“Motorcycle Helmet Effectiveness Revisited” cannot SUPPORT or REFUTE the effectiveness of helmets. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 118

should not be referenced,
“Motorcycle Helmet Effectiveness Revisited” Deuterman et al, DOT HS , March, 2004 This study should not be referenced, and all articles and papers referencing it as fact should be considered dubious. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 119

Reduce Fatalities in your region
Part 7: Recommendations that will Reduce Fatalities in your region Fatality Rates

1. Post the fatality data for your State
Driver Danger TMDF/VMT Societal Danger TMAF/Pop Passenger Vehicle Equivalents 2. Promote and use the new paradigm Motorcycles are dangerous and can be enjoyable You can get hurt or killed even when you are doing it right Motorcycle drivers are similar to other human drivers 3. Allow the scientific method to guide your program "Statement" is Measurable and Disprovable "Explanation" is Difficult to Manipulate Use the 4-Box Condition-Outcome Test 4. Adopt managing exposure to, as well as intensity of, the danger. Dose = Intensity X Exposure 5. Adopt an "opt-out" system such as the NMI-System In your state, right now, you can implement steps 1 and 2 immediately. All your Instructors are already certified to teach Begin2ride Invite NMI to give Begin2ride presentation to your instructors Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 121

MotorcycleDanger.com We use Science to understand and manage
the danger of motorcycling. Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, I 122

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Motorcycle Danger … We Used To Call It Something Else

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Motorcycle Danger … We Used To Call It Something Else

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