1. Experimental vs. Theoretical Probability

2. Probability is…
A measure of how likely an event is to occur

3. Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Theoretical Probability:
- The probability we find on paper.
- It is the probability of an event based on what “should” happen.
Experimental Probability:
- Experimental probability refers to the probability of an event occurring based on the results of an experiment.

4. Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Theoretical Probability:
number of favorable outcomes
number of possible outcomes
Theoretical Probability =

5. Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
number of event occurrences
Total number of trials
Experimental Probability =

6. Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Example 1: Roll a dice.
What is the theoretical probability of rolling a 4?
# favorable outcomes
# possible outcomes 1 6
The probability of rolling a 4 is 1 out of 6

7. Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Example 1 Continued: Roll a die.
What is the experimental probability of rolling a 4?
# event occurrences
Total # of trials

8. Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Example 2: Counters.
What is the theoretical probability of flipping a yellow?
# favorable outcomes
# possible outcomes 1 2
The probability of flipping a yellow is 1 out of 2 or .5 or 50%

9. Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Example 2 Continued: Counters.
What is the experimental probability of flipping a yellow?
# favorable outcomes
# possible outcomes

10. Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Summary:
- Theoretical Probability is how often an outcome “should” happen, in theory.
- Experimental probability refers to the probability of an event occurring based on an experiment.

11. Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Clear your desks for a short quiz.