1. Forecasting Elements of good forecast Accurate Timely Reliable
Expressed in meaningful unit
In writing
Technique should be simple to understand and use
Steps in forecasting process
Determine the purpose of the forecast
Establish a time horizon
Select a forecasting technique
Gather and analyse relevant data
Prepare the forecast
Monitor the forecast

2. Forecasting Approaches to Forecasting Based on Judgement and Opinion:
Executive opinion
Sales-force opinion
Consumer surveys
Delphi method
2. Based on Time Series Data:
Trend
Seasonality

3. Forecasting Averaging Techniques Simple moving average
Weighted moving average

4. Forecasting Exponential Smoothing Simple Linear Regression
For smoother demand,  is less, the forecasting trend will be smoother
For fluctuating demand,  is more, the trend will be less smooth
Simple Linear Regression

5. Forecasting Accuracy of Forecasts Two commonly used measures:
Mean absolute deviation (MAD)
Mean squared error (MSE)