1. OICA General Assembly, Delhi, 21 – 22 October 2010 Round table on Markets
L. Bastard - CCFA

2. France PC sales 2007 – 2010 : maximum volume in the « worst year » results of public policies
France, registrations of Passenger Cars, 2007  sept. 2010
CO2 Bonus
Malus
Full year 2009
1 000 €
S1 2010
700 €
S2 2010
500 €
Trend in France driven by effective public policies
Allows a quite continuous market : all years 2007 to 2011 in a range if 2 M / 2,1 M except 2009, with 2,270,000 véhicles, 10% above the others
Paradox, but do not value only market volume : product mix and with the mix, the average price and the total turnover of the new car market.
Results of the policy mix : in 2009, the total public expenditure of Bonus - Malus and Scrappae Scheme reached 1,2 B €, that is approx. 3% of the total turnover of the new car marke (2,2 M v x 20 k € = 44 B€) not surprrising that the volume increased by 10%, however the average value decreased by near 10% on 3 years.
Depending on policies, important in the mix of customers ; scrappage scheme active in 2009, private customers 68% in 2009 versus 60 % in On the contrary, fleets and professionnals decresed from 40 to 32%.
The conclusion : an effective mix of policies, continuous and progressive, maintaining volumes, but not the mix of the market. An effective pahse-out of the scrappage scheme.

3. France, LCV sales 2007 – 2010
On the LCV market and Truck market, significant decreases and no recovery
LCV from véhicles in 2008 to vehicles in 2009, and a forecast for 2010 showing a slight increase.
LCV market did not benefit the scrappage schems that was also defined for it, due to fleet ownership structure.
On the truck market, strong decrease by 40% from 2008 to 2009 ; and still similar levels in 2010.

4. Comments
Trend for 2010 : PC still better than average, LCV slow recovery, HDV still in the difficulty
Customer moving for lower price vehicles
Trend for 2011 : PC lower than 2010
Eventually an efficient public policy mix
2 measures with goood complementarity
Pluriannual basis
Bonus-malus on 5 years, Scrappage scheme on 2 y
Cost for the State, but important compensations
Networks ; industry ans suppliers ; employment

5. Recommendations ? High investment, long planning industry
 Provide visibility to manufacturers !
High volume industry and complex marketing  No policies fragmenting the market at national or regional level !