1. Sustainability in Energy Efficiency The Energy & Resources Institute
Sustainability in Energy Efficiency
Karan Mangotra
The Energy & Resources Institute
Sustainable Lifestyle = Positive Climate Action

2. The Nature of the Climate Change Problem
The Nature of the Climate Change Problem
Addressing climate change concerns involves choosing higher-cost lower-CO2 emission technologies over lower-cost, higher emission technologies
For some applications, especially for energy efficiency, initial cost is higher, but running (energy) costs are lower
For some applications, especially for renewables, the long-term cost of electricity is higher
Technology evolution is bringing down costs and enhancing performance
Addressing climate change is about meeting higher costs (at least in the medium term) and enabling rapid technology evolution.

3. Paris Agreement is a Step Ahead
Paris Agreement is a Step Ahead
Focuses on a long term goal of limiting global temperature rise to much less than 2 Deg C
All countries take action, with developed countries taking lead
Countries pledge action and report in a transparent manner
Mechanism to enable “ratcheting up” of ambition in subsequent pledges
Global technological cooperation – International Solar Alliance and Mission Innovation

4. Total reduction in emissions vs. baseline %
Very large variation in INDCs Share in emission reduction by INDC lever category, 2030; Percent
Total
Renewables, Nuclear, CCS 16
Energy efficiency 7
Total reduction in emissions vs. baseline % 5 48
Fossil fuel shifts
Non-energy
Note: Center numbers not comparable due to different baseline definitions 5 24 20
Non-specified and
other measures 12 29 28 40 45
European
Union 28 34 27
United States 10 42 16 9 3 21
Turkey 14 21 58 8 20 13 17 36 37 66
China
Mexico
Saudi Arabia 79 81 32
India 18
Nigeria 14
Vietnam 31 11
Ethiopia 64 7 27 25 29 53 46 69 8 86 27 32
Brazil 64 13 21 54
South Africa 23 71
Argentina 57
JEREMY
Key messages:
Large variation in baselines makes relative comparisons difficult but per country can analyze preferred levers
Large variation in choice of ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Main levers are zero-carbon energy in the power sector and energy efficiency
Little specification of improvements beyond the power sector 7
Note: Current Policies Baseline applied for US, EU and South Africa. Counterfactual emissions applied for China and India. Japan not shown as reductions are in line with current policy trends and a ‘counterfactual baseline’ could not be constructed
SOURCE: INDCs and underlying documents of 17 countries (representing ~80% of global emissions in 2012)

5. India: INDC targets are aggressive and ambitious
India’s INDC contains two main targets:
Intensity: INDC targets a 33%-35% decrease in emissions intensity of GDP by 2030 (compared to 2005). This will be overachieved under current policies.
Non-fossil: INDC targets 40% non- fossil power generation capacity target by This target is in line with current policies.
Total emissions (excl. LULUCF) under current policies will more than double from 2010 reaching ~5.4 GtCO2e in 2030
~80% of this growth is through energy-related emissions
Electricity generation will grow at 6% per year.

6. India: 8 levers are identified in the INDC, of which 6 are also quantified
Reduction levers
Included in INDC?
Specification
Energy
Non-fossil
Wind
Wind: 60 GW by 2022
100 GW by 2022 & Nuclear: 63 GW by 2032
Biomass: 10 GW by 2022
Solar
Other
Energy efficiency
Buildings
E.g. Energy Conservation Building Code
Industry
E.g. Perform, Achieve and Trade scheme
Transport
E.g. Vehicle fuel efficiency standard
Fuel shifts
Coal to gas
Not mentioned in the INDC
Transport (NG/ biofuels)
20% blending of biofuels
Non energy
Specification
Not mentioned in the INDC
Other
Non-core energy
Methane
Non-CO2 emissions are not mentioned specifically in the INDC. However, various measures related to reducing emissions from waste are included.
Nitrogen oxide
Other
LULUCF1
Aforestation
Additional (cumulative) carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.
Changed renewables to non-fossil here as nuclear is also included in India’s INDC and target.
There’s a lot more detail/information available in the INDC.
Reforestation
1 LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

7. Operationalizing the INDCs
Operationalizing the INDCs
The Ministry of Power in the process of establishing an operational framework on 3 pillars:
Regulatory Interventions
Institutional Arrangements (especially for data management)
Fiscal & Financial Incentives

8. Generation Capacity has increased…
The variable electricity sector…
Generation Capacity has increased…
…usage of power stations has declined

9. Challenges for tomorrow
Robust - adequate capacity to meet peak demand Agile – quick ramp up and ramp down capability Green - Maximize solar and wind input Minimize cost Flexible – to match variability in demand with variability in supply

10. Approaches to flexibility
Increased ramp up and ramp down capability of coal-based thermal generation
Increased availability of gas to enable gas-based plants to act as swing generators
Increased share of storage options – pumped storage and batteries
Controls – governors and egc
Demand-side response measures (DRM) to enable quick turn turndown of demand
Regulations to enable:
Peak/instantaneous pricing
Ancillary services, such as balancing power
Demand response measures

11. Energy Efficiency is Imperative The Air Conditioner Sector in India
Energy Efficiency is Imperative The Air Conditioner Sector in India
55% of electricity consumption is due to HVAC
25% of electricity consumption is due to lighting
Residential & Commercial Buildings consume 37% of total electricity

12. Key Demand Drivers for Room AC
Bulk of Buildings in India are yet to be constructed (around 66% till 2030) as per BEE reports - bulk of the cooling demand would therefore be driven from the room AC segment(both window and split) with an average of 1.35 TR
There is an average increase in ambient temperature in India leading to higher temperature differential and hence demand for more cooling.
Currently Room ACs account for nearly 60%- 70% of total refrigerant gas market share. This segment along will chillers will increase to a total share of nearly 80% of total refrigerant gas market by 2050.

13. Innovative Business Models are the need of the hour…
Initial cost is higher, especially for energy efficiency, but running (energy) costs are lower
For some applications, especially for renewables, the long-term cost of electricity is higher
And thus, through business models we can addressing climate change through meeting higher costs (at least in the medium term) and enabling rapid technology evolution.

14. Thank You
Karan Mangotra Fellow The Energy & Resources Institute